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Informist, Wednesday, Apr. 8, 2026

 

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--RBI Malhotra: Projects FY27 GDP growth at 6.9%
--RBI Malhotra: Revises Apr-Jun GDP growth estimate to 6.8% from 6.9?rlier
--RBI Malhotra: Projects Oct-Dec GDP growth at 7%
--RBI Malhotra: Projects Jan-Mar GDP growth at 7.2%
--RBI Malhotra: Revises Jul-Sept FY27 GDP growth to 6.7% from 7.0?rlier
--RBI Malhotra: High energy price, supply shocks to impact growth FY27
--RBI Malhotra: High commodity prices to impact growth this year
--RBI Malhotra: Supply chain disruption can hit some key sectors, hurt growth
--RBI Malhotra: Govt focus on domestic mfg augurs well for India's growth
--RBI Malhotra: Risks to growth forecasts are tilted to downside
--RBI Malhotra: Weather related events, global uncertainty weigh on growth
--RBI Malhotra: W Asia conflict, monsoon uncertainty to weigh on growth
--RBI Malhotra: Global growth faces downside risks on high oil prices
--RBI Malhotra: MPC said data until Feb showed continued firm econ activity
--RBI Malhotra: Data till Feb show strong econ activity momentum
--RBI Malhotra: MPC said West Asia conflict to impede India growth
--RBI Malhotra: Fundamentals of India econ resilient
--RBI Malhotra: Healthy balance sheets, svcs sector growth to support econ
--RBI Malhotra: GST cuts should continue to support econ activity
--RBI Malhotra: Business expectations remain optimistic
--RBI Malhotra: Leading indicators show resilience in mfg, svcs sectors
--RBI Malhotra: Agri sector prospects supported by healthy reservoir levels
--RBI Malhotra: Rural demand remains robust, discretionary spending firm
--RBI Malhotra: Pvt consumption to be supported by spending, rural demand
--RBI Malhotra: Urban consumption to improve further, aided by GST cuts
--RBI Malhotra: Govt thrust on infra spending continues
--RBI Malhotra: Revival in pvt invest to sustain

 

NEW DELHI – The Reserve Bank of India Wednesday projected India's GDP growth in 2026–27 (Apr-Mar) at 6.9%. The central bank also cut its growth estimates for the June quarter to 6.8% from 6.9% and that for the September quarter to 6.7% from 7%. 

 

The RBI projected growth of 7% for the December quarter and 7.2% for the March quarter. But risks to the baseline projection are tilted to the downside with uncertainty remaining elevated due to the West Asia conflict, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said, while giving the projections. "Further escalation and wider spread of the conflict, heightened volatility in global financial markets and weather-related events, however, weigh on the domestic growth outlook," he said. 

 

The central bank's FY27 growth projection is in line with the government's view of 6.8-7.2%, estimated in the Economic Survey for FY26. The Indian economy grew 7.6% in FY26.

 

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee, which met Mon-Wed, unanimously decided to leave the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. The panel also decided to retain the 'neutral' stance, as it would give the central bank flexibility to act judiciously going ahead, Malhotra said. 

 

Going forward, elevated energy and other commodity prices, as also shocks to availability of inputs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to impact growth in FY27, Malhotra said. After the war in West Asia started in February, the price of Brent crude had jumped as high as 62% to over $118 a barrel on Mar. 31. After hovering around $109 a barrel since then, crude prices cooled to $93 a barrel Wednesday, after the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and the US late on Tuesday. 

 

The government has taken several measures targeted at supporting exports and protecting supply chains, which should help mitigate the adverse impact of the conflict, Malhotra said. "Growth impulses continue to be supported by robust private consumption and investment demand," he said.  

 

"The fundamentals of the Indian economy are on a stronger footing at the current juncture than in previous crisis episodes as well as relative to many other economies, providing it with greater resilience to withstand shocks," Malhotra said.

 

According to the governor, heightened volatility in global financial markets with its spillover on domestic financial conditions could also weigh on India's growth prospects. Externally, India's merchandise exports may suffer due to disruptions in key shipping routes and the concomitant rise in freight and insurance costs if the war in West Asia continues for a long time, Malhotra said.

 

"Further escalation of the conflict, its continuation over a wider geographical spread and uncertainty regarding the damage to the energy infrastructure, apart from weather-related events, pose downside risks to the domestic growth outlook," the governor said. 

 

Contrary to the exogenous risks, the central bank sees domestic demand supported by sustained momentum in the services sector and rising capacity utilisation in manufacturing. India may also see continued demand due to the persisting impact of goods and services tax reforms and healthy balance sheets of financial institutions and corporates, according to Malhotra. "In this milieu, the government's focus on scaling up domestic manufacturing in several strategic and frontier sectors announced in the Union Budget 2026-27 bodes well for India's ensuing growth trajectory," Malhotra said. 

 

He said macroeconomic indicators till February also showed continued momentum in the Indian economy. "The agricultural sector's prospects are supported by healthy reservoir levels," he said. "Business expectations remain optimistic, and leading indicators point towards continued resilience in manufacturing and services sectors." 

 

The governor also said private consumption is expected to be supported by discretionary spending in FY27, and rural demand will also remain robust. "It should gain further traction on the back of favourable agricultural conditions and a healthy labour market," he said.  

 

In his concluding remarks, the governor said global economic conditions and sentiment have soured after the outbreak of the West Asia conflict, "adversely" impacting the growth and inflation outlook for India. "...we shall remain vigilant of the evolving situation and put in place policies that prioritise the best interest of the economy."  End

 

US$1 = INR 92.61

 

Reported by Shweta

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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