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Informist, Tuesday, Apr. 7, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off the day's high against the dollar Tuesday as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. This is the third consecutive trading day when the Indian unit has comfortably risen above the 93-per-dollar mark during the day but not closed above it.

 

The Indian currency was supported by banks' continued unwinding of arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets, dealers said. A slight fall in crude oil prices and the dollar index, and a rise in domestic equity indices during the last leg of trade, also supported the rupee, dealers said.

 

After rising to a high of 92.8500 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 93.0075 against the previous close of 93.0600. Intraday, the Indian currency traded in a range of 22 paise.

 

The Indian unit started the day higher against the dollar and rose further shortly afterwards as banks continued to sell dollars to unwind arbitrage positions between offshore and onshore markets, as the Reserve Bank of India's Friday deadline to ensure onshore net open positions at $100 million nears, dealers said.

 

However, some dealers said the unwinding was not aggressive in nature, as market participants await the decision of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday. Some market participants expect more regulatory steps by the RBI to support the Indian unit.

 

"Banks have mostly squared off the arbitrage but some nats (nationalised banks) are still waiting it out," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "I think they are just waiting for tomorrow's MPC decision to come. We may see the rest of the unwinding after that."

 

Meanwhile, banks bought dollars on behalf of oil and other importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. However, the dollar purchases were not substantial, according to some dealers.

 

"Importers were buying (dollars) but not to the extent they were earlier. Most have already booked these 92.80 levels, which is why we saw less activity today," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

Further, volume in the currency market was lower than usual as market participants refrained from placing large bets as they remained cautious of US President Donald Trump's Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping or face attacks on its infrastructure.

 

"The market has gone wild. Nobody really knows what to do when there is so much happening," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. "Anything can happen on the war front, so people are keeping light positions as of now. Nobody wants to risk it."

 

Trump has intensified pressure on Iran and threatened to target the country's power plants and bridges ‌on Tuesday if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. On the other hand, Iran Monday said it wanted a lasting end to the war with the US and Israel, and pushed back against pressure to reopen the strait.

 

The dollar index fell slightly in European trade, supporting the rupee. A rise in domestic equities also aided the Indian unit, they said. The Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 0.7% higher each.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.0075	93.0025	92.8500	93.0650	93.0600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	303.27	310.77	316.68	298.64	317.33

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across tenures as banks sold dollars for forward delivery to unwind arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore forwards market, to comply with the RBI's latest norms, dealers said. "The market has been very volatile. Today was still much better," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Most of the receiving was due to the unwinding but some paying also came in, which led to market moving both ways."

 

However, banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting appreciation of the rupee, which limited losses for the premiums, dealers said. However, importers' forward dollar purchases were not heavy as they await further developments related to the war in West Asia, they said.

 

Dealers see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.50%. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.26% at 1530 IST, lower than Monday's close of 3.41%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 303.27 paise, against 317.33 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee is expected to open steady ahead of the decision of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee at 1000 IST, dealers said. While the rate-setting panel is widely expected to keep rates unchanged, market participants will closely watch for RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra's commentary on the rupee and more measures to support the currency.

 

"I don't think RBI will announce new measures for the rupee tomorrow (Wednesday) since the impact of the current ones is yet to play out completely," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. "But some people are expecting it, so let's see." In order to shore up the rupee, some market participants expect the central bank to announce a dedicated dollar-buying window for oil companies, while others expect it to come up with facilities to mobilise foreign currency deposits from non-resident Indians.

 

The Indian unit will also take cues from movement of crude oil prices and the dollar index in view of further developments related to the war in West Asia, dealers said. Market participants will keep a close watch on what happens once Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz ends, with some expecting him to issue a fresh deadline.

 

The rupee will continue to be supported by banks' continued unwinding of arbitrage positions between the onshore and offshore market, they said. However, importers are likely to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, weighing on the Indian unit, dealers said. Further, continued foreign portfolio outflows may also exert downward pressure.

 

Dealers see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 92.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 92.70-93.30 against the dollar Wednesday. A break above 92.50 a dollar may push the Indian unit to 92.00, but a fall below 93.50 can push it back to below 94.00 a dollar, they said.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index tad dn on hopes of West Asia war ceasefire

 

	AT 1530 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3269	1.3285	1.3211	1.3238
EUR/USD	1.1564	1.1576	1.1525	1.1543
NZD/USD	0.5713	0.5722	0.5690	0.5711
AUD/USD	0.6940	0.6949	0.6899	0.6918
USD/JPY	159.5820	159.9300	159.4730	159.6680
USD/CAD	1.3919	1.3930	1.3909	1.3903
EUR/JPY	184.5590	184.6499	184.2536	184.3000
CHF/USD	1.2525	1.2536	1.2498	1.2527
EUR/CHF	0.9231	0.9241	0.9211	0.9208

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index edged slightly lower in European trade as investors hope for a ceasefire in the war in West Asia amid conflicting signals from the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened 'total demolition' of Iran's power plants and bridges if it fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night.

 

However, on its part, Iran said it would retaliate forcefully if Trump carried out his threats. Iran Monday publicly rejected a plan for a 45-day ceasefire and demanded a permanent end to the war, saying the US must compensate for damages. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 99.86, slightly lower than 99.99 Monday. The index hit a low of 99.77 during the day. 

 

The euro and the pound sterling fell 0.1% against the greenback. Investors remain cautious ahead of Trump's deadline. The European Central Bank's Governing Council member Dimitar Radev Tuesday said the Eurozone's risk of rising inflation is very high and the central bank must be ready to hike interest rates. He also said it is still "too early" to say whether the bank will hike rates in April. 

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.2% against the US unit after data released Tuesday showed Japan's household spending fell 1.8% on year in February compared to the 1?ll in January. Economists had expected a drop of 0.8%. The fall in spending is due to rising prices and marks the third-consecutive fall. 

 

The Swiss franc fell 0.1% against the dollar as rising oil prices pose a risk to Switzerland's inflation. 

Switzerland's inflation rate jumped to the highest level in a year in March. Consumer prices rose 0.3% on year in March, the highest rate in 12 months. Swedish Krona was also 0.5% down against the US unit. Bucking the trend, the Canadian dollar was broadly steady against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall as banks unwind offshore arbitrage position

 

	AT 1440 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.9075	93.0025	92.8600	93.0650	93.0600
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	303.59	310.77	316.68	298.64	317.33

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures as banks sold dollars for forward delivery to unwind arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore forwards market, to comply with the Reserve Bank of India's latest norms, dealers said. "Banks have unwound over 50% of their arbitrage position now, the selling (of dollars) is happening," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

The unwinding came after the central bank recently directed banks to ensure onshore net open positions do not exceed $100 million by Apr. 10. RBI also barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients. It said that companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts.

 

However, the arbitrage unwinding was not aggressive in nature, some dealers said. "Dealers also expect the RBI to announce some relief measures for banks tomorrow (Wednesday), which is why they are not selling (dollars) aggressively," a dealer at a large private-sector bank said. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is due to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged. Some market participants expect the central bank to come up with more measures to support the Indian currency. 

 

However, banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting appreciation of the rupee, which limited losses for the premiums, dealers said. However, importers' forward dollar purchases were not heavy as they await further developments related to the war in West Asia, they said. 

 

Dealers see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.50%. The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.26% at 1440 IST, lower than Monday's close of 3.41%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 303.59 paise, against 317.33 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee:Remains up as banks unwind arbitrage bets; importers' buys weigh

 

	AT 1315 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.9275	92.0025	92.8800	93.0650	93.0600

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained higher against the dollar as banks continued to sell dollars to unwind arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets, dealers said. However, gains for the Indian unit were limited as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, they said. 

 

The Reserve Bank of India, on Mar. 27, directed banks to ensure that net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable foreign exchange market do not exceed $100 ‌million at the end of each business day, latest by Friday. This has prompted banks to unwind arbitrage trades between the offshore and onshore markets. 

 

However, volume in the currency market was lower than usual as market participants remained cautious of US President Donald Trump's Tuesday deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping or face attacks on its infrastructure. "The market is risk-averse now. Major geopolitical developments and MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will all be seen tomorrow (Wednesday). Everyone is just cautious for now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. In a recent development, the Israeli military cautioned people in Iran against using trains or going near railway lines. "Your presence on trains and near railway lines endangers your life," the Israeli military said in a post on X. 

 

A rise in crude oil prices also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. At 1315 IST, Brent crude June futures were at $111.35 a barrel, up from $109.77 Monday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.80 and 93.10 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 92.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 7

 

MUMBAI – At 1030 IST, the rupee was at 92.9700 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.0025 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.0600 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	93.20	93.15	92.90	92.85
Private-sector bank	93.10	93.00	92.92	92.80
Private-sector bank	93.15	93.10	92.90	92.80
Foreign bank	93.30	93.15	92.90	92.85
Brokerage firm	93.30	93.20	92.80	92.60

 

(Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Rises as banks unwind arbitrage positions; W Asia war in focus

 

	AT 1013 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.9525	93.0025	92.9175	93.0650	93.0600

 

India Rupee: Rises as banks unwind arbitrage positions; W Asia war in focus

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar as banks continued to sell dollars to unwind arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets, as the Reserve Bank of India's Friday deadline to ensure onshore net open positions at $100 million nears, dealers said.

 

"Rupee rose a little only because banks are selling (dollars) less. RBI may announce some measures for the rupee tomorrow (Wednesday), so banks are very cautious on selling now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

Last week, the RBI issued a slew of measures to support the sharply falling rupee due to the war in West Asia. Following the recent measures by the central bank to support the rupee, some market participants expect more regulatory steps on this by the RBI at its Monetary Policy Committee decision on Wednesday.

 

However, dealers expect the rupee to fall later in the day mainly due to a rise in crude oil prices amid fear of further escalation in the war in West Asia. US President Donald Trump Monday said the US would "obliterate" Iran's power plants and bridges if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday night. Brent crude futures rose after Trump's comments. At 0938 IST, Brent crude June futures were at $111.53 a barrel, up from $109.77 a barrel Monday. 

 

Fearing further rise in oil prices, importers may buy dollars at every dip in dollar-rupee levels, weighing on the rupee, dealers said. However, a few dealers said Trump's deadline couldn't be trusted owing to his volatile statements in the past. "We can't give much value to his (Trump's) deadline now. The market isn't worried about it now. If anything happens tomorrow, the market will react," a dealer at another private sector bank said.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.80 and 93.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 92.80 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down on W Asia war uncertainty; Thai baht falls most

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar in early trade Tuesday as the war in West Asia showed no signs of cooling. Investors were on edge after US President Trump's warning of "complete demolition" of Iran if the Strait of Hormuz wasn't reopened by Tuesday, even as ceasefire negotiations continued.

 

Trump said at a news conference at the White House on Monday, "We have a plan...where every bridge in Iran will be decimated by 12 o'clock tomorrow (Tuesday) night, where every power plant in Iran will be out of business, burning, exploding and never to be used again." On its part, Iran said it would retaliate forcefully if Trump carried out his threats. Iran Monday publicly rejected a plan for a 45-day ceasefire and demanded a permanent end to the war, saying the US must compensate for damages. At 0915 IST, the Brent crude June futures were $111.40 a barrel, up from $109.77 a barrel Monday. 

 

The Thai baht fell 0.4% against the US unit, the most among its Asian peers. The baht has fallen over 3% since the war in West Asia began as the country remains vulnerable to rising oil prices. Thailand Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul Monday urged citizens to work from home, avoid personal cars, and use electricity responsibly to conserve energy. He also said further measures would be announced, and the government would do everything in its power to shield the public from the crisis. 

 

Both the South Korean won and the Singaporean dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar. South Korea's officials will meet officials from Kazakhstan, Oman, and Saudi Arabia Tuesday to secure oil supplies. "Our economy relies heavily on oil and naphtha imports from the Middle East, making it all the more urgent to secure alternative supply lines," said South Korea's presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik.

 

The Philippine peso fell 0.2% against the US unit after hitting a near two-week high Monday on hopes of a ceasefire in the war. The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.2% against the dollar.

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.3% against the greenback and hit a record low. Reuters reported citing Bank Indonesia Senior Deputy Governor Destry Damayanti that the central bank has intervened Tuesday to ‌maintain rupiah stability in the spot and non-deliverable forwards markets. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan and the Taiwan dollar were mostly stable against the greenback. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 7

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	93.30	92.50
Private-sector bank	93.30	92.70
Private-sector bank	93.10	92.70
Private-sector bank	93.30	92.70
Foreign bank	93.30	92.50
Foreign bank	93.30	92.85
Brokerage firm	93.25	92.65
Brokerage firm	93.50	92.50
Brokerage firm	94.20	92.50

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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