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Informist, Monday, Apr. 6, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its day's high against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers, dealers said. The Indian unit had risen sharply above the 93-per-dollar level earlier in the day as lenders continued to unwind residual arbitrage positions after the Reserve Bank of India tightened ‌foreign-exchange norms last week, they said. 

 

"Although there are both buyers and sellers (of dollars), there is too much demand (for dollars) in the market," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Importers are buying (dollars) on every dip (in dollar-rupee)."

 

After hitting a high of 92.7825 a dollar earlier in the day, the rupee settled at 93.0600 on Monday, against 93.1000 on Thursday. The currency market was closed on Friday for Good Friday. Other Asian currencies gained 0.1-0.6% against the dollar, with the Thai baht being the best performer.

 

The Indian unit rose sharply shortly after opening, as lenders rushed to unwind arbitrage positions between non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets to comply with the central bank's latest norms. 

 

Last week, the RBI barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients. It also said that companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts. The slew of measures by the RBI came less than a week after it mandated all authorised dealers to trim their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Apr. 10.

 

"A lot of PSUs (public sector banks) have still not cut all their (arbitrage) positions. So, we may see unwinding continuing through the week," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. However, most dealers said that banks have likely unwound a majority of their arbitrage positions.   

 

Meanwhile, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. "Importers don't want to lose the opportunity of booking 92-odd rupee levels," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. As importers stepped up their dollar purchases through the day, the Indian unit gave up most of its gains. 

 

Brent crude oil prices fell slightly after reports said Iran and the US have received a peace plan, which could come into effect on Monday and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices remained above the key $ 100-per-barrel mark, keeping the depreciation bias for the Indian unit intact, dealers said. At 1530 IST, Brent crude June futures were $108.18 a barrel, slightly lower than $109.03 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude prices have risen over 50% since the onset of the war in West Asia. 

 

However, a sharp rise in domestic equities provided some support to the Indian unit, according to dealers. On Monday, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.1% higher each. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.0600	93.0850	92.7825	93.1000	93.1000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	317.33	362.80	366.18	317.33	341.30

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium came off the near four-year high it hit earlier in the day and ended lower Monday as banks sold dollars for forward delivery amid relatively higher levels, dealers said. Premiums had jumped earlier in the day as banks persistently bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting the rupee's appreciation, they said. 

 

The fall in forward premiums was also due to banks selling forward dollars to unwind the arbitrage trade between the onshore market and the non-deliverable forward market. The rupee has appreciated by almost 2% since the RBI announced measures to curb market volatility.

 

Dealers see technical support at 4.0% for the one-year forward premium. After hitting a high of 3.94?rlier in the day, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium fell to 3.41% at 1530 IST, lower than Thursday's close of 3.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 317.33 paise, against 341.30 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is expected to take cues from movement in crude oil prices and the dollar index in view of further developments related to the war in West Asia, dealers said. Investors now await US President Donald Trump's comments in the meeting with US military officials in the Oval Office Monday at 2230 IST. 

 

The Indian unit is also likely to be supported by banks' continued unwinding of arbitrage positions between the onshore and offshore market, they said.

 

Importers are likely to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee rate, weighing on the Indian unit, dealers said. Further, continued foreign portfolio outflows may also exert downward pressure. In March, FPIs net sold securities worth $15.42 billion from domestic markets. 

 

Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 92.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 92.50-93.50 against the dollar Tuesday. A break above 92.50 a dollar may push the Indian unit to 92.00, but a fall below 93.50 can push it back to below 94.00 a dollar, they said. 

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India Rupee: One-yr forward premium hits 4-yr high as importers buy fwd dlrs

 

	AT 1505 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.0625	93.0850	92.7825	93.1000	93.1000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	337.82	362.80	366.18	337.81	341.30

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium came off the near four-year high it hit earlier in the day as banks sold dollars for forward delivery, noting the relatively higher levels, dealers said. Premiums had jumped up earlier in the day as banks persistently bought forward dollars on behalf of importers after the rupee appreciated in the spot market, they said.

 

The fall in forward premiums was also because banks sold forward dollars to unwind arbitrage trade between the onshore market and the non-deliverable forward market. The unwinding came after the Reserve Bank of India recently rolled out new measures that mandate banks to ensure net open positions of $100 million by Apr. 10. The RBI has also barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients. It said that companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts.

 

"Banks have so far sold around $12 billion dollar from the total $30 billion, the rest will be done this week," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The rupee has appreciated over 2% since the RBI announced measures to curb volatility in the market.

 

Dealers see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 4.0%. After hitting a high of 3.94?rlier in the day, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.62% at 1440 IST, lower than Thursday's close of 3.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 337.82 paise, against 341.30 paise Thursday. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Pares gains as importers buy dlrs; arbitrage unwinding supports

 

	AT 1411 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.0775	93.0850	92.7925	93.1000	93.1000

 

India Rupee: Pares gains as importers buy dlrs; arbitrage unwinding supports

 

MUMBAI – The rupee erased most of its early gains against the greenback as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of the importers, to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "When the rupee rises, it is natural that importers will buy dollars," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

In early trade, the rupee rose to 92.7825 a dollar as banks sold dollars to unwind arbitrage positions between the non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets to adhere to the Reserve Bank of India's latest norms, which mandate banks to limit net open positions to $100 million by Friday. The rupee has risen nearly 2% against the dollar following the RBI's announcement of new measures to curb speculative trades in the currency market. 

 

"Over 50% of the unwinding is done, and the rest will be done by the end of the week, so we can expect the rupee to appreciate till Friday," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.

 

Higher crude oil prices on the back of the escalating conflict in West Asia continued to put pressure on the Indian currency, dealers said. However, crude prices fell after news reports said the US and Iran are in talks for a potential 45-day ceasefire, though it remained above the $100-a-barrel mark. At 1410 IST, Brent crude June futures were $108.69 a barrel, slightly lower than $109.03 a barrel Thursday. Brent crude prices have risen over 50% since the onset of the war in West Asia. 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is moving between 92.50 and 93.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 92.70 a dollar. The Indian unit is likely to rise quickly to 92.40 if it breaches 92.70 a dollar, dealers said.

 

"There is strong resistance for the rupee at 92.70. We may see huge stop-losses around that. Then, the exporters will come as it is a good level for them, " the dealer at a state-owned bank said. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Sharply up as banks unwind arbitrage positions post RBI norms

 

	AT 0956 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.8750	93.0850	92.8000	93.0850	93.1000

 

India Rupee: Sharply up as banks unwind arbitrage positions post RBI norms

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as banks sold the greenback to unwind their arbitrage positions between the non-deliverable forwards and onshore markets following the Reserve Bank of India's latest norms which limit lenders to keep net open positions at $100 million by Friday, dealers said. 

 

"Banks will keep selling (dollars) till Apr. 10 to reach $100 million as per RBI's rules," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Last week, the Reserve Bank of India issued a slew of measures to strengthen the rupee due to the high volatility and sharp depreciation of the Indian unit following the war in West Asia. RBI made it tough for banks to place speculative bets against the rupee and barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients. RBI also said that companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts. 

 

"The maximum of the arbitrage position is closed now. But the spread between the onshore market and non-deliverable forwards has gone from 25 paise to 2 paise now because of the selling (dollar)," a dealer at foreign bank said.

 

However, market participants expect moves in the rupee to be dictated by movement in crude prices on the back of developments in the war in West Asia. The brent crude futures were above $110 in early trade Monday, but fell slightly after media reports said the US and Iranian officials were discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire.

 

Dealers expect demand for dollars from the importers, noting the appreciation of the rupee, to limit gains for the Indian currency. "The premiums are going up now because of the importer," a dealer at a foreign bank said. The one-year forward premium rose to an over four-year high of 3.91% on Monday.

 

Fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit. Nifty 50 and Sensex were down nearly 0.5% in the early trade Monday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.40 and 93.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed on W Asia war uncertainty; Philippine peso down

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar Monday as investors assessed the recent developments related to the war in West Asia. US President Donald Trump Sunday said the US will destroy Iran's power plants and bridges by Tuesday and make the country a 'living hell' if it does not open the Strait of Hormuz. Iran dismissed these warnings and said the Hormuz would open only if the US compensates for the destruction in the war. Meanwhile, according to some media reports, the US and Iran officials are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire. 

 

At 0930 IST, Brent crude June futures was at $109.81 a barrel, up from $109.03 a barrel Thursday and $101.16 per barrel on Wednesday. Investors now await Trump's comments in the meeting with US military officials in the Oval Office Monday at 2230 IST. 

 

The South Korean Won pared losses from early trade and gained over 0.3% against the dollar, tracking gains in Korean indices. However, higher oil prices kept the won under pressure as the country relies heavily on imports for energy. South Korea's Kospi was up 0.7% at 0930 IST. 

 

Meanwhile, South Korea President Lee Jae Myung said Monday that the country must accept ‌a degree of risk in importing crude oil from the West Asia amid blockages of the Strait of Hormuz. "There are not many alternative routes, and if shipments are cut off altogether because of heightened risk, it could have a serious impact on South Korea's crude supply and pose a major risk to the public, so we need to strike a balance and accept a certain degree of risk," Lee said in a Cabinet meeting.

 

The Thai baht rose 0.2% against the US unit after falling in the early trade on reports of talks between Iran and Oman aimed at ensuring safe passage through Hormuz. The Singaporean dollar rose 0.1% against the greenback. The Malaysian ringgit and Hong Kong dollar were mostly stable against the US unit. 

 

Meanwhile, the Philippine peso fell 0.5% against the dollar, the most among its Asian peers. The Chinese yuan was up 0.1%. (Divya Moolayattil)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 6

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	93.10	92.70
State-owned bank	93.50	92.70
Private-sector bank	93.50	92.00
Private-sector bank	92.65	92.25
Private-sector bank	93.20	92.45
Private-sector bank	93.15	92.70
Foreign bank	93.85	92.50
Foreign bank	93.00	92.50
Brokerage firm	93.15	92.80
Brokerage firm	92.80	92.50
Brokerage firm	93.20	92.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha and Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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