More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Apr. 2, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are expected to move in a range in the coming week, after staging a recovery Thursday amid value buying at lower levels. However, the overall market sentiment remains fragile amid fading hopes of a swift end to the ‌US-Iran war. Developments in the West Asia conflict, crude oil prices, and foreign fund flows will remain key drivers of market direction in the near term, according to analysts. Domestic markets are shut Friday for Good Friday.

 

The recent recovery in Nifty 50 should not be mistaken for a confirmed bottom, said Deepak Chacko Jom, wealth manager at LiveLong Wealth. "It appears more like a tactical bounce within a broader corrective phase driven by global uncertainty. As long as West Asia tensions remain unresolved and crude oil sustains above the $100 mark, downside risks persist," Jom said. 

 

The key overhang continues to be elevated crude oil prices, which directly impact inflation, currency stability, and earnings outlook, along with persistent outflow of foreign funds reflecting a global risk-off stance, Jom said. "While domestic liquidity is providing intermittent support, a durable bottom will likely require a combination of crude price stability, easing volatility, and a reversal in foreign flows," he said. Until then, the market is more likely to remain in a volatile phase.

 

On Thursday, the May futures contract of Brent crude rose over 8% to an intraday high of around $109 per barrel. Oil futures surged after US President Donald Trump in a televised address early Thursday said the US would continue to attack Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks. "We will continue (strikes on Iran) until our objectives are fully achieved," Trump said. He also warned about attacking Iran's electricity generating plants if a deal is not made in this period.

 

On the other hand, the rupee rose Thursday thanks to measures by the Reserve Bank of India to curb speculative trading in the currency. The Indian unit gained 173 paise to the dollar, the most in 13 years. "The RBI's twin regulatory actions--capping banks' net open rupee positions and barring NDF (non-deliverable forward) offerings to corporates--though disruptive to banking operations in the near term, achieved their intended effect, mechanically forcing dollar unwinding and engineering a meaningful rupee recovery," Vinod Nair, head of research at Geojit Investments, said in a note.

 

Earlier in the day, Motilal Oswal Financial Services said it expects earnings of Nifty 50 companies to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 16% from 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) to FY28, supported by strong policy measures by the government. While this projection may still face a test due to the impact of the ongoing war in West Asia, the likelihood of these companies posting double-digit earnings growth remains strong, analysts at the brokerage wrote in a India strategy report.

 

With the recent correction in India's headline indices after the start of West Asia war, valuations have become "much sober" and provide a strong entry point for these indices, given the "structural" case for India's economy remains as strong as ever, according to the report.

 

In contrast, Nomura downgraded Indian equities to 'neutral' from 'overweight', citing growing risks to corporate earnings from high energy prices due to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, coupled with concerns over high valuations. "Our base-line assumption is that it might take 2-3 months for oil/energy prices to normalise," Nomura said. India is vulnerable to sustained high energy prices both from economic and earnings standpoints, the brokerage said. Nomura also flagged concerns about artificial intelligence-led disruption and slowing domestic fund flows that may further weigh on valuation multiples of Indian equities.

 

From a structural standpoint, the 22200–22300 points zone is acting as a near-term support for the Nifty 50 index where buying interest is emerging, Jom said. "But a decisive break below 22000 points could open further downside towards the 21500–21000 range, where valuations begin to align with historical comfort levels," he added.

 

The week ahead is loaded with high-impact triggers across global and domestic fronts. The RBI's monetary policy meeting commands centre stage. "...while a rate pause is near-certain consensus, the central bank walks a tightrope between crude-driven inflation risks and a four-year low manufacturing PMI signalling a softening growth impulse," Nair said. Market participants will closely monitor the commentary by the central bank governor on the rate cycle trajectory and FY27 projections. Globally, the US March consumer price index and weekly jobless claims will be eyed for cues on the US Federal Reserve's rate cycle trajectory.  End

 

US$1 = INR 93.10

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.