More Stories

Informist, Thursday, Apr. 2, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee surged against the dollar on Thursday following new measures by the Reserve Bank of India to curb speculative trade in the currency, prompting sustained selling of dollars as traders unwound arbitrage positions, dealers said. The Indian unit gained 173 paise on the dollar Thursday, the most in 13 years. 

 

"The RBI's twin regulatory actions — capping banks' net open rupee positions and barring NDF offerings to corporates — though disruptive to banking operations in the near term, achieved their intended effect, mechanically forcing dollar unwinding and engineering a meaningful rupee recovery," Vinod Nair, head of research, Geojit Investments Ltd., said.  

 

After rising above 93 per dollar and touching an intraday high of 92.82 per dollar, the rupee erased some gains and ended the day at 93.10 per dollar, as against 94.83 on Monday. The rupee moved in a very broad 84-paise range against the dollar during the day.

 

The rupee opened 130 paise higher against the dollar on Thursday as traders unwound arbitrage trades between the NDF and onshore markets after the RBI announced more measures to curb speculative trade in the rupee, dealers said. 

 

"It was not possible to unwind all holdings in one day, but a lot of it was sold as there are only 4-5 full trading days before the limit comes into action," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "More selling will happen next week, but it won't be as bad as today (Thursday)," he said.  

 

The Reserve Bank of India Wednesday announced measures to curb speculative trading in the currency market, primarily denting corporate arbitrage, dealers said. The RBI barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients. It also said that companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts. The measures by the RBI come less than a week after it mandated all authorised dealers to trim their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Apr. 10.

 

Dealers said the measures announced Wednesday also dimmed hopes of relief from the central bank on the $100 million limit announced last week. "RBI seems quite serious to follow through on new regulations to control INR weakness. As such, we think the chance of relaxation is much lower, even as tweaks could still be possible," MUFG Bank said in a note. "RBI may also be implementing these changes now as traditional FX intervention may be reaching some practical limits and uncomfortable thresholds." 

 

However, some banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which limited gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. US President Donald Trump's comments Thursday that the US would hit Iran hard for two to three weeks led to a further rise in crude oil prices, weighing on the rupee, they said. Trump said that the US would strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks and take the country into the "Stone Ages." 

 

At 1650 IST, Brent crude May futures were at $109.18 per barrel, higher than $101.16 per barrel on Wednesday but lower than $118.35 per barrel on Tuesday

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.1000	93.5300	92.8200	93.6575	94.8300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	341.30	271.92	341.30	271.85	274.00

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose Thursday, with the one-year premium hitting a near four-year high as banks bought forward dollars heavily on behalf of importers amid the surge in the rupee in the spot market. The one-year forward premium rose to 3.67%, the highest since June 2022. The rupee appreciated nearly 2% against the dollar on Thursday. 

 

The jump in forward premiums was also on the back of a lack of aggressive forward dollar sales by banks to unwind arbitrage positions, dealers said. Some banks sold forward dollars to unwind arbitrage trades between the onshore market and the non-deliverable forward market. However, they were not very aggressive in nature, as was expected, they said. 

 

Dealers see technical resistance at 3.70% for the one-year forward premium. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.67%, sharply higher than Monday's close of 2.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was at 341.30 paise, up from 274.00 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

Markets are closed on Friday due to Good Friday. On Monday, dealers expect the rupee to take cues from developments in the war in West Asia. Dealers also expect the rupee to appreciate Monday on the back of new measures by the RBI, they said.

 

Dealers will also look forward to the Monetary Policy Committee's decisions on Wednesday. "Moving forward, further policy changes by RBI and the Indian government to manage INR weakness could be likely," MUFG Bank said. "Our base case is for the RBI to keep rates on hold during its 8 April policy meeting and to likely still maintain a neutral stance, but markets will likely focus on the RBI's communication on the likely path of policy and liquidity."

 

Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 92.50 per dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 92.50-93.50 against the dollar Monday. A break above 92.50 a dollar may push the Indian unit to 92.00, but a fall below 93.50 can push it back to below 94.00 a dollar, dealers said. 

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dollar rises on safe haven demand amid W Asia crisis

 

	AT 1549 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3191	1.3320	1.3189	1.3307
EUR/USD	1.1516	1.1606	1.1514	1.1589
NZD/USD	0.5707	0.5759	0.5700	0.5743
AUD/USD	0.6867	0.6941	0.6866	0.6927
USD/JPY	159.6450	159.7260	158.5490	158.7080
USD/CAD	1.3923	1.3924	1.3870	1.3870
EUR/JPY	183.8140	184.1668	183.5000	183.9432
CHF/USD	1.2491	1.2613	1.2489	1.2584
EUR/CHF	0.9219	0.9224	0.9196	0.9203

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose above the 100 level as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset after US President Trump said Thursday morning that the US would hit "Iran hard over the next two-three weeks." Crude oil prices also jumped after hopes of a near-term end to the West Asia war were shattered. At 1530 IST, the dollar index was at 100.12, up from 99.55 Wednesday. 

 

Retail sales in the US rose 0.6% to $738.4 billion in February, according to latest data from the US Commerce Department. The US private sector added 62,000 jobs in March, according to ADP Research. This was significantly higher than the estimate of 40,000, but slightly lower than 66,000 the previous month. 

 

All major currencies fell over 0.5% against the dollar. The euro fell 0.6% against the greenback after Trump reversed his claims of a ceasefire on Iran's energy infrastructure till Apr. 6 and said the US would go down heavily on Iran. The pound sterling fell 0.6% against the greenback as oil prices shot up after Trump's statement.

 

The Swiss franc fell 0.8% against the US unit after Switzerland's CPI remained below market expectations although it rose to 0.3% on year in March from 0.1% in February, according to the data released by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office on Thursday. 

 

The Japanese yen fell 0.6% against the greenback as risk-off sentiment increased among investors after the war in West Asia showed no signs of de-escalation. The Swedish Krona fell 1.1% against the dollar, hitting a four-year low.  (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee:Rises above 93/$1 as traders unwind onshore, NDF arbitrage trade

 

	AT 1445 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.9725	93.5300	92.8200	93.6575	94.8300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee surged above 93 per dollar as traders continuously sold dollars to unwind arbitrage trades between non-deliverable forward and onshore markets in view of the Reserve Bank of India's directions Friday, which mandate banks to trim their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Apr. 10, dealers said. "The rupee went to 92.84 as the banks were aggressively selling dollars to unwind their remaining positions," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.

 

Late Wednesday, the RBI also barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients. It also said that companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts. The rupee has appreciated over 1.8% against the dollar so far Thursday.

 

However, some banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which limited gains for the Indian unit, dealers said. "The market is very uncertain now. Domestic equities have fallen, crude prices have risen, all of this puts pressure on the rupee," a dealer at a public-sector bank said.

 

At 1445 IST, Brent crude futures were $108.74 a barrel, up from $101.16 a barrel Wednesday. Dealers now see strong technical resistance for the Indian currency at 92.75 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: 1-yr forward premium hits 4-year high as importers buy fwd dlrs

 

	AT 1245 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.2125	93.5300	93.0050	93.6575	94.8300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	315.20	271.92	315.20	270.85	274.00

 

MUMBAI--Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose Thursday, with the one-year forward premium hitting a near four-year high as banks bought forward dollars heavily on behalf on importers, noting the surge in the rupee in the spot market. The one-year forward premium rose to 3.39%, highest since June 2022. 

 

"Market is in like a tug of war, there is a lot of buying (of dollars), a lot of selling, and that's why there is lot of voltility now," a dealer at public-sector banks said. The rupee appreciated over 1.7% against the dollar on Thursday, hitting a high of 93.0050 a dollar. This was after the Reserve Bank of India rolled out new norms curbing banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients, aiming to kill speculative bets against the rupee. 

 

The jump in forward premiums was also on the back of lack of aggressive forward dollar sales by banks to unwind arbitrage positions, dealers said. Some banks sold forward dollars to unwind arbitrage trades between the onshore market and non-deliverable forward market, however, it was not very aggressive in nature, as was expected, they said. On Friday, the central bank directed banks to ensure that their net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable foreign exchange market do not exceed $100 million by Apr. 10. 

 

Dealers see technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.50%. At 1245 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 3.39%, higher than Monday's close of 2.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 315.20 paise, against 274.00 paise Monday. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Apr 2

 

MUMBAI – At 1100 IST, the rupee was at 93.4325 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.5300 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.8300 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	-	93.55	93.00	-
Foreign bank	93.75	93.45	93.15	92.85
Foreign bank	94.00	93.60	93.10	92.00
Brokerage firm	93.90	93.75	92.90	92.75
Brokerage firm	-	94.00	93.05	92.55
Brokerage firm	95.00	94.80	92.80	92.50

 

(Divya Moolayattil and Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Surges after RBI issues new FX norms to curb speculative trade

 

	AT 1015 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.4925	93.5300	93.1300	93.6575	94.8300

 

MUMBAI – The rupee surged against the dollar Thursday after the Reserve Bank of India Wednesday issued fresh measures to curb speculative trading, under which it barred banks from offering rupee non-deliverable forwards to resident and non-resident clients. The central bank also said companies cannot rebook cancelled forward contracts.

 

"Foreign banks were offering huge amount of non-deliverable forward to the customers. RBI wanted to cut that down. There was also huge gap in onshore and NDF market, so it came up with the new norms," a dealer at a public sector bank said. "Banks are also unwinding their large positions because of RBI's $100 million cap, " the dealer said. 

 

Traders are unwinding arbitrage trades between the NDF and onshore markets, dealers said. The RBI's latest measures came less than a week after it asked authorised dealers to cut their onshore net open positions to $100 million by Apr. 10. "The market has undergone structural changes, and that's why we are now seeing positive rupee," a dealer at another public sector bank said. 

 

However, US President Donald Trump's comments Thursday that the US would hit Iran hard for two-three weeks risk a further rise in crude oil prices, they said. Trump said that the US would strike Iran "extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks and take the country into the "Stone Ages." "War zone is still hanging and it may lead to short term adjustments and rupee may still feel pressure," the dealer said.

 

A fall domestic equities also weighed on the currency, dealers said. At 1015 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 2.1?ch. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.00 and 94.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 93.00 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as dollar gains after Trump's comments

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Thursday as the greenback gained after US President Donald Trump said the US would hit Iran hard for the next two-three weeks. Trump Thursday morning said Iran would never have a nuclear weapon. "Iran's navy is gone, the air force is in ruins, and leaders are dead," he said. At 0828 IST the dollar index was at 99.94, up from 99.55 Wednesday.

Currencies across emerging economies were rattled as crude oil prices surged to over $105.89 a barrel after Trump reversed his statement that the US would postpone strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure till Apr. 6 and said it would hit Iran hard. Asian stocks also fell sharply in early trade, which weighed on currencies. 

 

The Philippine peso opened steady against the dollar but fell 0.7% against the greenback after Trump said he would continue attacks on Iran. The Thai baht was down 0.4% against the dollar. The rise in oil prices has left the country hard-pressed to avoid the fallout of the war because it relies heavily on imported oil and natural gas. 

 

The Malaysian ringgit opened higher against the dollar on hopes of de-escalation in the war, but soon reversed gains and was largely stable against the US unit. Bucking the trend, the Taiwanese dollar rose 0.12% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Apr 2

 

NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	93.20	92.00
Private-sector bank	94.50	92.30
Private-sector bank	94.20	92.80
Private-sector bank	93.60	92.50
Foreign bank	94.20	92.35
Brokerage firm	94.00	93.00
Brokerage firm	93.20	92.15

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha and Divya Moolayattil)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.