India Rupee Review
Hits record low; tops 95/$1 as RBI norm boost short-lived
This story was originally published at 17:10 IST on 30 March 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Monday, Mar. 30, 2026
By Kabir Sharma
MUMBAI – The rupee fell below the 95 per dollar mark on Monday due to constant demand for dollars from oil marketing companies and foreign funds who were looking to exit Indian equities, dealers said. The new directive from RBI which constrained banks' net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable foreign exchange market to $100 million did provide a boost to the Indian unit in the first half but failed to limit a sharp fall in the Indian unit in the second half to trade, they said.
"It was an unprecedented day for markets, as we were not expecting this (RBI measures) at all," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There were a lot of sales in the morning but many banks have pushed the re-adjustment to Thursday as there is some hope of relief from RBI," he said.
After witnessing the highest intraday volatility since September 2013 and falling to a record low of 95.2200 a dollar, the rupee settled at 94.8300 on Monday, which was a record closing low, against its previous close of 94.8125 a dollar.
The rupee opened 122 paise higher against the dollar Monday, posting its biggest opening gain since September 2013, but could not sustain at that level. The rupee surged as new norms from the RBI, slated to come into effect from Apr. 10, led to a massive sale of dollars.
Dealers said banks have urged the Reserve Bank of India to ease the rules announced on Friday post market hours, which mandate lenders to ensure that net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable foreign exchange market do not exceed $100 million at the end of each business day. The RBI met senior treasury officials on Saturday to discuss the repercussions of the new guidelines, Informist reported on Monday.
Market participants said banks' net open position was around $35 billion-$40 billion as of Friday, with large banks holding around $5 billion worth of positions.
Net open position is defined as the residual currency exposure a bank carries after offsetting all its positions. Under extant norms, banks can set net open position limits within 25% of the total capital. Market participants' estimate for such positions is around $35 billion-$40 billion as of Friday, with large banks holding around $5 billion worth of positions.
After the initial uptick, the rupee fell sharply as banks bought the greenback for oil marketing companies which were wary of rising crude oil prices, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices also rose after Yemeni Houthis launched first attacks on Israel over the weekend, further deepening the US-Israel war with Iran in West Asia. Brent crude oil for May delivery crossed $116 a barrel on Monday, up from $112.57 Friday, having erased all gains it had chalked up after US President Donald Trump had announced a unilateral moratorium of four days on bombing the energy infrastructure in Iran.
In the second half of trade, the rupee fell to a record low of 95.22 a dollar as there was persistent demand for dollars from foreign banks for outflows from Indian equities, dealers said. On Monday, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex ended 2.1% and 2.2% lower, respectively. Foreign investors sold over $11 billion worth of Indian shares in March alone, data from National Securities Depository Ltd. showed.
"The rupee breaching 95 is the market's verdict on a confluence of forces building for months, brent crude above $105, FPI outflows exceeding $11 billion in March, and a widening current account deficit. This is not a one-session event," said Sachin Sawrikar, founder, Artha Bharat Investment Managers.
Monday also marked the last trading day of 2025-26 (Apr-Mar). During this period, the rupee depreciated almost 11% against the dollar.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 94.8300 | 93.5875 | 93.5875 | 95.2200 | 94.8125 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 274.00 | 260.00 | 274.36 | 261.00 | 273.83 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Monday as banks likely sold dollars for forward delivery after the Reserve Bank of India's norms, announced post market hours Friday, directed banks to ensure net open position in the onshore market do not exceed $100 million by Apr. 10, dealers said. Banks are selling forward dollars to unwind arbitrage trades between the onshore market and non-deliverable forward market, they said.
Dealers, however, pointed out that unwinding of the arbitrage position was not happening at a rapid pace as banks were waiting for a clarification or relaxation in norms from the RBI. "People are not ready to cut the position. They will start after the financial year ends, from Apr. 2," a dealer at a public sector bank said.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.81%, lower than Friday's close of 2.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.91 paise, against 273.83 paise Friday.
OUTLOOK
Markets are closed on Tuesday on account of Mahavir Jayanti and on Wednesday for banks' closing of accounts. On Thursday, dealers expect the rupee to take cues from the developments in the West Asia war. Dealers also expect the rupee to appreciate Thursday on the back of new directives from the RBI, they said.
Dealers expect sharp pressure on the dollar if the RBI does not ease the norms on net open positions, they said. "We will wait until Thursday, they should either delay it or grandfather the norms (the norms should only apply to new trades)," a dealer at a private bank said. Market participants also expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene in the market on both ends due to the high volatility, they said.
"The RBI has the reserves and will prevent disorderly depreciation, but intervention manages pace, not direction. What determines the floor is crude stabilisation, FPI sentiment, and India's current account trajectory. Until then, volatility is the base case. Investors should price it in, not be surprised by it," Sawrikar said.
Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.25 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.50-95.30 against the dollar Thursday. A break of 95.00 a dollar again may push the Indian unit to 95.50 shortly afterwards, they said.
India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index stays above 100 as war worries persist
MUMBAI – The dollar index stayed firm above 100 Monday as investors flocked to safe-haven assets due to fear of a widening conflict after Iran said the US is plotting a ground attack to capture its energy infrastructure. The Pentagon has deployed 10,000 additional troops to West Asia, according to media reports. A potential US ground attack could further escalate the war and push oil prices higher. At 1521 IST, Brent crude oil futures were at $115.2 per barrel, up from $112.57 Friday.
At 1514 IST, the dollar index was at 100.31, up from 100.19 Friday and 99.87 Thursday. Investors will closely watch German inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell due later in the day.
The euro recovered some of last week's losses but remained near its weakest level since Mar. 15. The euro rose 0.07% against the dollar. The pound sterling slipped 0.07% against the greenback. Markets now expect at least two rate hikes by the Bank of England in 2026, with a possible third, reversing earlier bets on two cuts. However, Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor struck a cautious tone last week, emphasising a "high bar" for rate hikes and favouring steady borrowing costs until the economic impact of the Iran conflict becomes clearer.
The Japanese yen rose 0.06% against the dollar, reversing losses from the previous session. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would closely monitor the yen's movements, as they affect the economy and prices, suggesting that rising import costs from a weak currency could justify raising interest rates in the coming months.
The Canadian dollar fell 0.2% to a two-month low against the US dollar as the escalating tensions in West Asia and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations supported the greenback.
The Swiss franc fell 0.1% against the dollar. Swiss National Bank Chair Martin Schlegel and policymaker Petra Tschudin reiterated the central bank's readiness to intervene to curb franc strength. The Swiss National Bank left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0% for the third consecutive meeting on Mar. 19 and is expected to keep rates steady this year. The Swedish krona fell 0.2% against the dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: 1-year premium down as banks sell fwd dlrs post RBI's new norms
| AT 1515 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 94.9100 | 93.5875 | 93.5875 | 95.2200 | 94.8125 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 266.91 | 260.00 | 267.10 | 260.00 | 273.83 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Monday as banks likely sold dollars for forward delivery after the Reserve Bank of India's norms, announced post market hours Friday, directed banks to ensure net open position in the onshore market do not exceed $100 million by Apr. 10, dealers said. Banks are selling forward dollars to unwind arbitrage trades between the onshore market and non-deliverable forward market, they said.
"In the early trade, there were a lot of buy-sell swaps, then the spot came back as there were a lot of corporate flows at 93.50," a dealer at a private sector bank said. Meanwhile, banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, after the rupee appreciated in the spot market, which limited losses for premiums, dealers said. The rupee rose sharply to a high of 93.5875 a dollar earlier in the day. However, it fell to a record low of 95.2200 a dollar in the last leg of trade.
Dealers, however, pointed out that unwinding of the arbitrage position was not happening at a rapid pace as banks were waiting for a clarification or relaxation in norms from the RBI. "People are not ready to cut the position. They will start after the financial year ends, from Apr. 2," a dealer at a public sector bank said.
At 1515 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.81%, lower than Friday's close of 2.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.91 paise, against 273.83 paise Friday. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Falls more, nears record low as West Asia war worries persist
| AT 1115 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 94.41 | 93.58 | 93.58 | 94.77 | 94.81 |
MUMBAI – The rupee pared most of its gains in early trade after it eked out record opening gains of 122 paise at 93.58 against the dollar. Banks bought dollars aggressively on behalf of oil companies, which limited the gains of the rupee, dealers said.
The Indian unit has traded in a wide range of 115 paise so far Monday. Banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers who feared a further rise in oil prices due to the war in West Asia, dealers said. At 1230 IST, Brent crude May futures were at $115.35 a barrel, up from $112.57 a barrel Friday. Importers also bought the greenback to meet their month-end and year-end payment requirements, they said.
The rupee fell to an intraday low of 94.77 per dollar, just 4 paise short of the record low it had touched Friday. Market participants are in wait-and-watch mode. "The rupee is likely to hit record low today (Monday) due to heavy bidding by corporates in the market. But market is also selling due to the RBI circular. At 94.80 levels, companies may sell," a dealer at a public-sector bank said. The rupee has declined nearly 4% so far this month.
At the open, banks had aggressively sold dollars, pushing the rupee to 93.58, largely to comply with the new Reserve Bank of India norms that their net open positions in the onshore market be limited to $100 million at the end of the day.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.35 and 94.65 against the greenback. Dealers peg the immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.80 a dollar. In case the Indian unit falls past 94.80, dealers expect it to quickly fall further towards the next crucial level of 95 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 30
NEW DELHI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 94.4125 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.5875 a dollar, against the previous close of 94.8125 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 95.00 | 94.85 | 93.50 | 93.00 |
| Private-sector bank | - | 95.00 | 93.50 | - |
| Brokerage firm | 95.00 | 94.80 | 92.80 | 92.50 |
| Brokerage firm | 95.30 | 95.00 | 93.50 | 92.85 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Sharply up as banks sell dollars after RBI cuts open limits
MUMBAI – The Indian rupee opened 122 paise higher against the dollar at 93.58 Monday, posting its biggest opening gain since September 2013, but could not sustain that gain in jittery trade. The surge came after the Reserve Bank of India directed banks Friday to ensure that their net open rupee positions in the onshore deliverable foreign exchange market do not exceed $100 million by Apr. 10.
However, some banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, which limited the gains, the dealers said. The rupee then reversed some of the gains and fell back to 93.96 and then traded in a narrower range. "Importers are buying heavily and that is why the rupee gains are limited," a dealer at a large private sector bank said.
The rise in crude oil prices and fall in domestic equities also weiged on the rupee. Brent crude oil for May delivery was at $115 a barrel, up from $112.57 Friday, having erased all gains it had chalked up after US President Donald Trump had announced a unilateral moratorium of four days on bombing the energy infrastructure in Iran.
Market participants said banks' net open position was around $35 billion-$40 billion as of Friday, with large banks holding around $5 billion worth of positions. "Banks are selling dollars in the onshore market to meet the RBI's norms and now the spread between onshore market and the non-deliverable forwards have increased to 60 paise from 3 paise on Friday," the dealer at the large private bank said.
Dealers said the RBI met senior treasury officials of banks on Saturday to discuss the repercussions of the new guidelines. They expect the RBI to issue clarification regarding the new norms, so there is measured unwinding. "If the RBI does not issue any clarification, rupee can rise even further to 92.15," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. RBI's new norms came amid hightened volatility in the market. On Friday, the rupee fell nearly 1% to 94.81, after hitting a record low of 94.84. It has fallen nearly 4% this month.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.00 and 94.35 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.50 a dollar. (Divya Moolayattil )
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as war intensifes; ringgit falls the most
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Monday as risk appetite among investors remained weak due to uncertainty over a near-term end to the war in West Asia. The Malaysian ringgit fell the most among Asian currencies.
Asian equities plunged in early trade Monday after Yemen's Houthis joined the war Saturday and launched a missile attack on Israel over the weekend. This triggered a global risk-off move on fears of prolonged war in West Asia. Rising oil prices also weighed on equities, with crude rising above $115 a barrel Monday. Moreover, US President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran to end the war were underway, but Washington deployed thousands of troops to the region, stoking fears of ground operations.
A rise in the US dollar on the back of safe haven demand also weighed on Asian units. At 0900 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.10, against 100.33 Friday and 99.87 Thursday. The South Korean won fell 0.3% against the dollar to a 17-year low amid concerns about rising inflation and growth. The won has fallen about 5% against the dollar this year and is among the worst performers in Asia.
The Malayasian ringgit fell 2.42% against the US unit as investors continued to shift towards safe-haven assets amid heightened uncertainty over the end of the war in West Asia. The Thai baht fell 0.8% against the US unit.
The Chinese yuan fell 0.1% against the US unit. Data released Friday showed China's industrial firms reported stronger profit growth early in the year, reinforcing recovery signals in the world's second-largest economy even as the West Asia conflict risks hurting global growth.
Bucking the trend, the Hong Kong dollar, the Taiwan dollar, and the Singaporean dollar were broadly flat against the greenback. (Divya Moolayattil)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 30
NEW DELHI/MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 93.50 | 92.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 94.50 | 93.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 94.00 | 93.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 94.00 | 93.50 |
| Foreign bank | 94.20 | 92.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 93.20 | 92.15 |
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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