More Stories

Informist, Friday, Mar. 27, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee slumped past the psychologically crucial 94-per-dollar mark for the first time and ended at a record closing low Friday, weighed down by higher crude oil prices and weak risk sentiment on the back of the ongoing conflict in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed down by continuous dollar purchases by oil marketing companies and foreign portfolio investors, they said. 

 

While the Reserve Bank of India intervened sporadically to support the Indian unit, it remained missing in action for a majority of the day, letting the Indian unit depreciate sharply, dealers said. "RBI, which has been a dominant player on the selling (dollars) side, was just not there. They may have sold small lots, but that was not enough at all", a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "There was a lot of panic in the market."

 

The Indian unit tumbled to a record low of 94.8425 a dollar and settled at 94.8125 on Friday, 0.9% lower from its previous close. The Indian unit depreciated almost 1.2% against the dollar this week.

 

The Indian unit began the day on a weak footing, opening below 94 per dollar as risk appetite among investors remained dampened owing to scepticism over a near-term end to the West Asia conflict, dealers said. 

 

US President Donald Trump early Friday said talks with Iran to end the war were going on "very well" and announced he was postponing attacks on the country's energy plants for 10 days till Apr 6. However, the US has ‌also sent thousands of troops to West Asia, with Trump weighing whether to use ground forces to seize Iran's strategic oil hub of Kharg Island. Moreover, an Iranian official said that a 15-point US proposal, conveyed to Tehran by Pakistan, was "one-sided and unfair", Reuters reported. 

 

Brent crude oil prices fell following Trump's announcement. However, prices inched up during the day, topping $110 per barrel, weighing heavily on the Indian unit, dealers said. Brent crude May futures were at $109.90 per barrel at 1530 IST, higher than $108.01 per barrel on Thursday. They were at $102.22 per barrel on Wednesday.

 

"The concern of higher crude (oil prices) for a prolonged period is weighing heavily on the currency and overall macro outlook. Sustained dollar demand and energy-led inflation risks are keeping the rupee under stress," said Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities. "Technically, 94.00 now acts as key resistance, while the next crucial support is seen near 95.00. Bias remains weak unless crude prices show meaningful correction."

 

Banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, fearing further depreciation of the rupee and rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. "Oilers (oil importers) were the main buyers today. There was constant buying (of dollars) from them," a dealer at another state-owned bank said. The government, in order to help oil-marketing companies absorb the impact of 52% jump in the price of Brent Crude oil in the past one month to over $100 a barrel Friday cut excise duty on petrol to INR 3 per litre from INR 13 per litre, and that on diesel to zero from INR 10 per litre.

 

The rupee fell past the psychologically crucial 94-per-dollar mark for the first time on Friday, just a week after falling past the 93.00-per-dollar mark. The Indian currency has fallen over 4% against the dollar ever since the conflict in West Asia broke out on Feb. 28. Importers also bought dollars to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said. 

 

Strong foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. So far in March, FPIs have pulled out funds worth almost $13 billion from Indian markets. Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 2.1% and 2.3% lower, respectively, on Friday.

 

The dollar index rose above 100 on Friday on the back of safe haven demand due to uncertainty around the West Asia conflict weighing on the rupee, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 100.01 against 99.87 Thursday and 99.64 Wednesday. 

 

The central bank intermittently stepped in to sell dollars to contain the rupee's slide, according to dealers. However, these interventions were few and far between, they said, adding that the RBI may be looking to save its foreign exchange reserves at a time when there is no near-term end in sight for the conflict in West Asia. India's foreign exchange reserves were around $710 billion on Mar. 13, over $20 billion lower from its record high on Feb. 27. 

 

"Market is worrying about the everyday rise in crude and with more than $100 billion short position, RBI must be in very difficult position to navigate dollar-rupee," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Market participants speculate that the RBI's net short forward positions have now ballooned to over $100 billion from $67.77 billion at the end of January, constraining the central bank's scope to intervene in the spot market to support the Indian currency.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.8125	94.1550	94.1500	94.8425	93.9775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	273.83	261.03	276.36	261.03	264.33

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium settled higher Friday as banks persistently bought forward dollars on behalf of importers, noting the sharp fall of the rupee in the spot market, dealers said. The absence of forward dollar sales by the RBI also supported the premiums, they said. 

 

The RBI has been actively conducting buy-sell swaps in the forwards market ever since the start of the conflict in West Asia at the end of Feburary. Market participants speculate that the RBI's net short forward positions have now ballooned to around $100 billion from $67.77 billion at the end of January.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.89%, higher than Wednesday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 273.83 paise, against 264.33 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of crude oil prices and the dollar index as the conflict in West Asia continues to evolve, dealers said.

 

"The key near-term question is how long these bottlenecks persist. As long as energy flows remain constrained, inventories continue to deplete and oil and gas prices are likely to stay firm, keeping pressure on the rupee," Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency research at Kotak Securities, said in a note. 

 

"If crude remains elevated, we may see further reflexive weakness through speculative shorting, especially via the NDF (non-deliverable forwards) market, along with importer panic buying and some hesitation from exporters." 

 

Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Sustained FPI outflows may also weaken the local unit, they said. 

 

The RBI may intervene through dollar sales in case the Indian unit comes under extreme downward pressure, dealers said. However, noting the sharp and quick depreciation of the rupee ever since the war broke out, dealers expect the RBI's intervention to be less aggressive in nature. The central bank may initially try to protect the next big figure of 95.00, they said. 

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 95.00 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 94.50-95.00 against the dollar Monday. A break of 95.00 a dollar may push the Indian unit to 95.50 shortly afterwards, they said. 

---

India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index above 100; yen stable on intervention fears

 

	AT 1520 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3304	1.3347	1.3302	1.3333
EUR/USD	1.1520	1.1546	1.1515	1.1534
NZD/USD	0.5766	0.5778	0.5753	0.5760
AUD/USD	0.6893	0.6912	0.6872	0.6886
USD/JPY	159.8270	159.9760	159.4600	159.7370
USD/CAD	1.3848	1.3861	1.3846	1.3860
EUR/JPY	184.1210	184.3420	183.8740	184.2000
CHF/USD	1.2545	1.2590	1.2538	1.2575
EUR/CHF	0.9184	0.9188	0.9165	0.9164

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index rose above 100 on Friday on the back of safe haven demand due to uncertainty around the West Asia conflict. US President Donald Trump said he was postponing plans to strike Iranian energy plants by another 10 days, after claiming talks with Tehran were "going very well."

 

The conflict, however, has shown no signs of easing, with Israel continuing its strikes on Iran, and the Trump administration has directed thousands of soldiers from the US Army's elite 82nd Airborne Division towards West Asia. 

 

Federal Reserve Vice Chair of Supervision Philip Jefferson said Thursday that inflation might rise in the near term. "In the short term, expect overall inflation to move higher, reflecting a rise in energy prices," he said. At 1545 IST, the index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.97 against 99.87 Thursday and 99.64 Wednesday.

 

The pound sterling was down 0.1% against the dollar. The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index rose 3.0% over the year in February, matching the previous month's reading and consensus estimates, according to a Dow Jones poll. However, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, was above market expectations at 3.2% and higher than 3.1% in January.

 

The euro was down 0.1% against the dollar. European Central Bank policymaker and Central Bank of Cyprus Governor Christodoulos Patsalides said in an interview Friday that there was no need to rush for any monetary policy adjustments until the central bank had sufficient information.

 

The Japense yen was steady against the dollar and traded at 159.80 per dollar, a whisker away from the 160 mark, which last prompted authorites to intervene in the market. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities were prepared to take "bold actions" to counter foreign exchange moves. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: 1-year fwd premium nears 2.90% as importers buy forward dollars

 

	AT 1418 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.7300	94.1550	94.1500	94.7875	93.9775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	274.36	261.03	274.36	261.03	264.33

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged on Friday and was near the key level of 2.90% as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers due to a sharp fall of the rupee in the spot market, dealers said. The absence of forward dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India also supported premiums, they said. 

 

"The situation in the spot market is causing panic amongst importers and specially oilers (oil marketing companies)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "They think that even if the situation gets better, they won't get levels (oil prices) which they used to get before," he said. 

 

Despite dollar sales by the RBI in the spot market, the rupee fell further against the dollar and hit a record low of 94.7875, weighed down by uncertainty over a near-term end to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, dealers said. Banks bought dollars for importers and foreign portfolio investors, which further weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

The absence of RBI from the forwards market also supported premiums, dealers said. The RBI has been actively conducting buy-sell swaps in the forwards market ever since the start of the conflict in West Asia at the end of Feburary. Market participants speculate that the RBI's net short forward positions have now ballooned to around $100 billion from $67.77 billion at the end of January.

 

At 1417 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.89%, higher than Wednesday's close of 2.81%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 274.36 paise, against 264.33 paise Wednesday. (Kabir Sharma)

---

India Rupee: Falls more, hits lifetime low on West Asia conflict worries

 

	AT 1115 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.5300	94.1550	94.1500	94.5525	93.9775

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell further against the dollar, hitting a record low of 94.5525 a dollar, weighed down by uncertainty over a near-term end to the ongoing conflict in West Asia, dealers said. Banks bought dollars for importers and foreign portfolio investors, which further weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

Importers bought dollars with a sense of panic, noting the sharp depreciation of the Indian unit, fearing further losses, dealers said. The rupee fell past the psychologically crucial 94-per-dollar mark for the first time on Friday, just a week after falling past the 93.00 mark. The Indian currency has fallen almost 3.9% against the dollar ever since the conflict in West Asia broke out on Feb. 28. Importers also bought dollars to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said. 

 

Continued foreign portfolio outflows from domestic markets also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. So far in March, FPIs have pulled out funds worth almost $13 billion from Indian markets. Both the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 1.4?ch at 1115 IST

 

However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. However, the RBI's likely intervention was not agressive in nature, they said.

 

"RBI is intermittently selling (dollars) in the market. I don't think there is any intent to push it (rupee) higher," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "RBI may turn aggressive around 95.00. But 95.00 is not far, it can hit in 1-2 days, if not today."

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.30 and 94.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.60 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 27

 

MUMBAI – At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 94.5250 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 94.1550 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.9775 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	95.00	94.80	93.50	93.00
Private-sector bank	95.00	94.60	94.00	93.75
Foreign bank	-	94.55	94.12	94.00
Brokerage firm	-	94.80	93.50	93.00

 

(Pratiksha, Divya Moolayattil, and Suryash Kumar)

 

---

India Rupee: Falls past 94/$1, at record low on W Asia conflict uncertainty

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	94.2900	94.1550	94.1500	94.2950	93.9775

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply below the psychologically crucial 94-per-dollar mark and hit a record low of 94.2950 a dollar Friday as investors' risk appetite weakened owing to uncertainty over a near-term end to the West Asia conflict, dealers said.

 

US President Donald Trump early Friday said talks with Iran to end the war were going on "very well" and announced he was postponing attacks on the country's energy plants for 10 days till Apr. 6. However, market participants remain sceptical as Trump had Thursday warned Iran to arrive at a deal with the US or face a continued onslaught, threatening to take control of Iran's oil.

 

Domestic equities fell sharply Friday, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex down 1.2?ch at 0940 IST, weighing on the Indian currency. Crude oil prices also remained higher, above $100 per barrel, exerting pressure on the local unit, dealers said. Brent crude May futures were at $107.15 per barrel at 0940 IST, lower than $108.01 per barrel on Thursday. They were at $102.22 per barrel on Wednesday.

 

"Right now, the market is caught between hope and hesitation. While the global impact of the conflict suggests there is increasing pressure for de-escalation, the path to that outcome remains unclear," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex said. "If tensions ease meaningfully, the rupee could see a recovery of around 1 (100 paise) to 1.5 (150 paise). But until there is clarity, volatility is likely to persist."

 

Most dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales, and prevent the Indian unit from runaway depreciation. However, they don't expect the central bank to intervene aggressively. "I had expected RBI to push the rupee higher by intervening pre-open. Since that has not happened, I think RBI will let the rupee adjust to global cues," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I am seeing support at 94.30-94.50 (a dollar) for now."

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 94.00 and 94.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Most dn on West Asia conflict uncertainty; yuan flat

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Friday as risk appetite among investors remained weak owing to uncertainty over a near-term end to the West Asia conflict. The Malaysian ringgit fell 0.4% against the dollar, the most among its peers. 

 

Asian equities declined Friday even after US President Donald Trump Friday said talks with Iran to end the war were going on "very well" and announced the postponment of attacks on the country's energy plants for 10 days till Apr. 6. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon was considering sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to West Asia to give the US more military options. Moreover, Trump on Thursday said Iran must make a deal with the US or face a continued onslaught, while warning that taking control of Iran's oil was an option.

 

A rise in the US dollar on the back of safe haven demand also weighed on Asian units. At 0915 IST, the index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.87 against 99.87 Thursday and 99.64 Wednesday. The Indonesian rupiah was down 0.2% against the dollar while the Taiwan dollar was down 0.1%. 

 

The Phillipine peso was down 0.1% against the dollar despite the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas Thursday convening an off-schedule policy review, where it kept its key policy rate steady at 4.25%. Governor Eli Remolona said the review was meant to "reassure the market that we are assessing the situation constantly."

 

Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan was flat against the dollar. Data released Friday showed China's industrial firms reported stronger profit growth early ‌in the year, reinforcing recovery signals in the world's second-largest economy even as the West Asia conflict risks hurting global growth.

 

The South Korean won was up 0.1?ter the government Thursday said it will carry out a 5 trillion won or $3.32 billion ‌emergency bond buyback and expand fuel tax cuts starting Friday to protect the economy from a global market rout caushed by the US-Israeli war on Iran. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 27

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	94.20	93.70
Private-sector bank	94.25	93.80
Private-sector bank	94.40	93.70
Foreign bank	94.25	93.70
Brokerage firm	94.25	93.25
Brokerage firm	94.30	93.70

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.