More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 25, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee settled at a record closing low against the dollar Wednesday as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors amid the ongoing war in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian unit was also weighed by dollar demand related to maturity of non-deliverable forwards contracts, they said.

 

However, the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars actively during the day, in order to keep the Indian currency from falling past the psychologically-crucial 94.00 per dollar level, they said. "We saw quite a lot of buying (of dollars) but most of it was just absorbed by them (RBI) I think. 94.00 seems to be the big stop for now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

The rupee settled at 93.9775 a dollar Wednesday, just a whisker away from its lifetime low of 93.9800, and 0.1% lower than its previous close of 93.8650.

 

Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar Wednesday, with the Philippines peso being the worst hit.

 

The Indian unit started the day on a weaker note despite crude oil prices falling below the $100 per barrel mark owing to optimism over the US' efforts to end the nearly month-long conflict in West Asia. US President Donald Trump Tuesday said the US was making progress in talks with Iran, including winning an important concession from Tehran. However, Tehran has denied that direct negotiations have taken place.

 

May futures of Brent crude were at $98.96 per barrel at 1530 IST, lower than $104.49 per barrel on Tuesday and $99.94 per barrel on Monday. Prices fell to $97.16 a barrel earlier in the day.

 

The rupee fell as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers and related to maturity of non-deliverable forwards contracts, dealers said. Fear of the Indian currency depreciating further in view of the ongoing US-Israel war on Iran has led oil marketing companies and other importers to actively purchase the greenback, they said. Importers bought dollars to meet their month-end and financial year-end requirements.

 

"The market has been fooled by positive headlines on the war multiple times now. So, we are taking Trump's statements with a pinch of salt," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "There have been contradictory statements from Iran as well. So, the market remains on bid (dollar buying) mode."

 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of FPIs, looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. FPI outflows have been a big pain point for the rupee, especially since the start of the conflict in West Asia. So far in March, FPIs have pulled out almost $12 billion from domestic markets, on a net basis.

 

However, a few hours into the trade, state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the RBI, which ensured that the Indian unit did not breach the 94.00 figure throughout the day, dealers said. The RBI likely sold $1.5 billion to $2.00 billion in the spot market on Wednesday, according to some dealers.

 

"Large NDF (non-deliverable forwards) maturities and oil demand from oil companies and FPIs demand has been keeping the dollar bid up consistently," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said in a note. "Reserve Bank of India is actively intervening via state run banks to prevent excessive volatility. However, intervention is not fully offsetting the depreciation pressure." 

 

A surge in domestic equities provided little respite to the rupee, dealers said. On Wednesday, the Sensex and Nifty 50 ended 1.6% and 1.7% higher, respectively.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9775	93.9500	93.8475	93.9775	93.8650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	264.33	262.33	264.33	259.35	266.93

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across tenures Wednesday, with the one-year forward premium settling at an over two-week low, as the RBI likely conducted buy-sell swaps to neutralise the impact of its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June 2027, they said.

 

The RBI has been actively conducting buy-sell swaps in the forwards market ever since the start of the conflict in West Asia at the end of February. Market participants speculate that the RBI's net short forward positions have now ballooned to around $100 billion from $67.77 billion at the end of January.

 

Since spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.81%, lower than Tuesday's close of 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 264.33 paise, against 266.93 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

The currency market is closed on Thursday for Ram Navami. On Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of crude oil prices and the dollar index as the conflict in West Asia continues to evolve, dealers said.

 

The rupee could weaken further to 95 a dollar if crude oil prices stay around $110 per barrel, Vishrut Rana, Asia-Pacific senior economist at S&P Global Ratings, told Informist in an interview Wednesday.

 

Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Continued FPI outflows may also exert downward pressure on the local unit, they said. Dealers also expect a slew of NDF maturities to keep the rupee under pressure over the next week.

 

However, most dealers expect the RBI to continue to intervene through dollar sales in case the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure. They expect the RBI to continue protecting the 94.00 level in the spot market. However, in case the central bank allows the Indian unit to fall past 94.00, dealers expect it to quickly fall further towards 94.50.

 

"There are only two scenarios that can happen, either RBI will hold rupee at 94.00 for some day, and then let it go or they will intervene heavily to push it higher," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think they will continue to go with a gradual depreciation."

 

Dealers now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.00 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.70-94.20 against the dollar Friday.

---

India Rupee - World FX: Australian dollar falls after CPI lower than view

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3403	1.3436	1.3371	1.3415
EUR/USD	1.1603	1.1631	1.1587	1.1611
NZD/USD	0.5827	0.5843	0.5808	0.5832
AUD/USD	0.6980	0.7004	0.6962	0.6992
USD/JPY	158.8390	159.1990	158.5770	158.6510
USD/CAD	1.3789	1.3790	1.3751	1.3752
EUR/JPY	184.3020	184.6010	184.1920	184.2000
CHF/USD	1.2665	1.2707	1.2643	1.2669
EUR/CHF	0.9160	0.9169	0.9150	0.9148

 

NEW DELHI – The Australian dollar fell 0.2?ter data Wednesday showed inflation eased slightly in February, while underlying price pressures remained sticky. The consumer price index rose 3.7% on year February, down from January's 3.8% rise and expectations of 3.8%. However, inflation was still well above the 2% to 3% range targeted by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

 

The pound sterling was flat against the dollar after data released Wednesday showed inflation in the UK held at 3% in February, unchanged from the previous month. However, inflation is likely to rise in March as energy and food prices surged in the wake of the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The UK consumer prices rose 3.0% on year, in line with January's rise. This matched a consensus of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.

The Japanese yen fell 0.1?ter minutes from the Bank of Japan's January meeting Wednesday showed the central bank's policy board is increasingly concerned about the effects of a weak yen on the country's economy. Many officials were of the view that Japanese companies have passed on higher import costs caused by the yen's depreciation to consumers in recent years. 

 

The Swiss franc was down 0.1% against the dollar after the Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel said Tuesday that the central bank has increased its readiness to intervene in foreign currency markets to dampen appreciation pressure on the currency. The franc was sought as a safe-haven investment in times of uncertainty, with appreciation pressure increasing since the escalation of the conflict in West Asia, he said. 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index was a tad higher amid continued uncertainty about the conflict in West Asia. US President Donald Trump said Tuesday that the US was making progress in talks with Iran. However, Tehran has denied that direct negotiations have taken place, keeping investors on edge. At 1445 IST, the index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.24 against 99.18 Tuesday and 99.15 Monday. The dollar index had hit a high of 99.43 earlier in the day. The euro was flat against the dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Premiums fall across tenures as RBI likely holds buy-sell swaps

 

	AT 1420 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9050	93.9500	93.8475	93.9750	93.8650
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	260.35	262.33	262.88	259.83	266.93

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Wednesday, with the one-year forward premium hitting an over two-week low, as the Reserve Bank of India likely conducted buy-sell swaps to neutralise the impact of its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The central bank likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June 2027, they said.

 

"At this point, nobody really knows when RBI will stop recieving in forwards. Their forward book is already quite large but they are just adding to it," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think this trend will continue till the time rupee is under strong pressure."

 

The RBI has been actively conducting buy-sell swaps in the forwards market ever since the start of the conflict in West Asia at the end of Feburary. Market participants speculate that the RBI's net short forward positions have now ballooned to around $100 billion from $67.77 billion at the end of January. 

 

The rupee fell against the dollar Wednesday and was hovering near its record low of 93.9800 a dollar. However, the RBI likely intervened through dollar sales, which kept the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-crucial 94.00 level. Since spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. 
 

At 1320 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.77%, lower than Tuesday's close of 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 260.35 paise, against 266.93 paise Tuesday. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Down, near record low; RBI's intervention prevents 94/$1

 

	AT 1240 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9475	93.9500	93.9100	93.9750	93.8650

 

NEW DELHI - The rupee remained lower against the dollar, hovering near its lifetime low of 93.9800 a dollar, as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, some state-owned banks sold dollars likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the Indian unit, they said. 

 

The Indian unit has traded in a range of just seven paise so far on Wednesday. Dealers said the RBI likely actively sold dollars to keep the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-crucial 94.00 level. The Indian currency hit a low of 93.9750 on Wednesday, just shy of its lifetime low of 93.9800 hit on Monday. 

 

"Clearly 94.00 figure seems to be protected. But I really think it won't be for too long," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "There is good amount of buying (of dollars) in the market. Importers, month-end demand, everything is there." 

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who fear further fall of the rupee amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia ever since the US and Israel attacked Iran at the end of February, dealers said. Importers also bought the greenback to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said. 

 

Moreover, FPI outflows have been a big pain point for the rupee, especially since the start of the conflict in West Asia. So far in March, FPIs have pulled out funds worth almost $12 billion from domestic markets, on a net basis. However, a surge in domestic equities gave some support to the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 1240 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 2.3?ch.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.70 and 94.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.00 a dollar. In case the central bank allows the Indian unit to fall past 94.00, dealers expect it to quickly fall further towards 94.50. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 25

 

MUMBAI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 93.9300 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.9500 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.8650 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.05	93.98	93.90	93.80
Public-sector bank	94.25	94.00	93.75	93.50
Private-sector bank	94.20	94.00	93.75	93.50
Private-sector bank	94.15	94.00	93.85	93.70
Private-sector bank	94.10	94.00	93.50	93.00
Foreign bank	-	94.00	93.50	-
Brokerage firm	94.20	94.00	92.50	92.00
Brokerage firm	94.00	93.98	93.00	92.80

 

(Pratiksha, Divya Moolayattil, and Suryash Kumar)

---

India Rupee: Slightly down despite fall in crude as importers buy dollars

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9475	93.9500	93.9100	93.9650	93.8650

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar, near its record low of 93.9800, as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, and related to maturity of non-deliverable forwards contracts, dealers said. The Indian unit fell despite Brent crude oil prices falling below the $100 per barrel level on Wednesday. 

 

"There is lot of demand (for dollars) in the market ahead of financial year end, month end etc," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "This is why the decline in crude is not showing any impact on rupee." 

 

Importers bought dollars to meet their month-end and financial year-end requirement, dealers said. Fear of further depreciation of the Indian currency amid the ongoing tensions in West Asia also prompted oil and other importers to actively purchase the greenback, they said.

 

Increasing hopes of de-escalation in tensions in West Asia, US President Donald Trump Tuesday said the US was making progress in negotiating an end to the West Asia war, including winning an important concession from Tehran, reports said. Brent crude May futures were at $99.94 per barrel at 0940 IST, lower than $104.49 per barrel on Tuesday and $99.94 per barrel on Monday.

 

A rise in domestic equities supported the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 0940 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 1.2?ch. Meanwhile, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India might be possibly intervening through dollar sales around current dollar-rupee levels to keep the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically crucial 94-per-dollar mark.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.50 and 94.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

---

India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed on West Asia conflict uncertainty; Taiwan dlr up

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar owing to continued uncertainty about the conflict in West Asia. Market paticipants weighed concerns about rising oil prices and hopes of a truce in the West Asia conflict as US President Donald Trump claimed progress in talks.

 

Trump Tuesday said the US was making progress in negotiating an end to the West Asia war, including winning an important concession from Tehran, reports said. However, reports also said that the Pentagon was likely to send thousands of additional troops from the elite 82nd Airborne Division to West Asia, leading to worries that the war could drag on and keep oil prices high.

 

A fall in Brent crude oil prices in early trade Wednesday, owing to optimism over the US' efforts to end the nearly month-long conflict in West Asia, supported Asian currencies. Brent crude May futures were at $98.69 per barrel at 0855 IST, lower than $104.49 per barrel on Tuesday and $99.94 per barrel on Monday.

 

The South Korean won rose 0.2% against the dollar, while the Taiwan dollar was up 0.1%. The Phillipine peso was down 0.1% against the dollar after Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Tuesday announced a national energy emergency amid the conflict in West Asia. He also highlighted in an interview the risk of potentially grounding planes and cutting flights as a very real consequence of the current crisis in the West Asia.

 

The Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah and Chinese yuan were flat against the dollar. (Pratiksha) 

---

India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 25

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	94.00	93.50
Private-sector bank	94.00	93.50
Private-sector bank	94.00	93.50
Private-sector bank	94.20	93.40
Private-sector bank	93.90	93.35
Foreign bank	94.00	93.40
Brokerage firm	94.05	93.75
Brokerage firm	94.10	93.65

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (11) 4220-1000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.