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Informist, Monday, Mar. 23, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply to a record low against the dollar Monday as continued escalation in hostilities in West Asia dampened risk appetite among investors and kept crude oil prices higher, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's likely intervention through dollar sales limited the fall of the Indian currency, they said. 

 

"There was considerable pressure on rupee. We saw some support by RBI around the figure (94.00) but it was not much, I think," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The rupee hit a record low of 93.9800 a dollar in the last leg of trade and settled at 93.9750, down 0.3% from Friday's close of 93.7100. However, the rupee fell past the psychologically crucial 94-per-dollar mark to 94.11 in off-hours trading after the spot market closed at 1530 IST. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.8% against the dollar Monday, with the Philippine peso being the worst hit.

 

The Indian currency started the day lower against the dollar as risk appetite among investors was dampened by the worsening crisis in West Asia, with the US and Iran exchanging increasingly dire threats. The hostilities are now in their fourth week. Iran Sunday said it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours if US President Donald Trump followed through on his threat, delivered a day earlier, to hit the country's electricity grid in 48 hours.

 

However, after Indian market hours, Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social that the US has had ‌good and productive conversations with Iran and he will order the military to postpone any military strikes against Iranian power plants ‌and energy infrastructure. This is likely to support the Indian currency Tuesday.

 

The rupee was also weighed down by a slump in domestic equities Monday, dealers said. The Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 2.5% and 2.6% lower, respectively. Banks continued to purchase dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to pull funds out from the Indian markets, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. So far in March, FPIs have, on a net basis, pulled out $10.78 billion from the domestic markets.

 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers who worried about further depreciation of the rupee amid the continued global uncertainty, dealers said. The Brent Crude May futures contract was at $113.13 per barrel at 1530 IST, up from $112.19 per barrel Friday and $108.65 per barrel Thursday. 

 

"Everyone was on buying (of dollars) mode for the most part, although there was some sense of caution before Trump's announcement on Iran," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. The rupee has depreciated almost 3.2% against the dollar since the conflict in West Asia began on Feb. 28. 

 

A rise in the dollar index owing to safe-haven demand on the back of continued tensions in West Asia also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1530 IST, the index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.92, against 99.50 Friday and 99.16 Thursday.

 

However, the RBI marked its presence in the spot market shortly after the market opened and ensured that the rupee did not fall past the psychologically-important 94.00 mark throughout the day, dealers said.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9750	93.8300	93.8050	93.9800	93.7100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	272.36	267.36	273.82	267.31	264.71

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended higher across most tenures Monday as banks persistently bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers who expect the rupee to fall more amid the escalation in hostilities in West Asia and consequent rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. 

 

The RBI is likely to have sold dollars in the spot market to prevent further depreciation of the domestic unit, dealers said. However, most dealers said the central bank is unlikely to have sold dollars for forward delivery to neutralise its spot intervention and avert pushing out rupee liquidity.

 

Meanwhile, a rise in US Treasury yields Friday limited the rise in forward premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield had hit a 10-month high Friday on concern that the West Asia conflict would keep upward pressure on crude oil prices and, in turn, stoke inflation.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.00%. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.90%, higher than Friday's close of 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 272.36 paise, against 264.71 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee may open higher as crude oil prices and the dollar index fell sharply after Trump said he would ‌postpone any strikes on Iran's power plants and energy infrastructure, dealers said. In the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, the rupee rose to 93.49 after Trump's statement. 

 

However, market participants will continue to closely monitor overnight developments relating to the conflict. Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. 

 

"The rupee is currently a hostage to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, with elevated energy prices driving a dollar liquidity squeeze and keeping pressure on emerging market currencies," Anindya Banerjee, head of commodity and currency research at Kotak Securities, said in a note. "As long as disruptions persist over the next 2–3 weeks into mid-April, USDINR could test the 96–97 zone in a worst-case scenario, with 95 and 96 acting as key resistance levels."

 

Most dealers expect the central bank to intervene through dollar sales in case the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure. They expect the RBI to continue protecting the 94.00 level in the spot market. They now see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 94.00 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.50-94.00 against the dollar Tuesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Safe haven dlr firm as West Asia conflict escalates

 

	AT 1509 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3280	1.3343	1.3277	1.3338
EUR/USD	1.1510	1.1565	1.1506	1.1589
NZD/USD	0.5783	0.5838	0.5783	0.5836
AUD/USD	0.6944	0.7015	0.6946	0.7040
USD/JPY	159.5470	159.6550	159.0190	159.2340
USD/CAD	1.3748	1.3748	1.3687	1.3728
EUR/JPY	183.6120	184.3350	183.5780	184.5700
CHF/USD	1.2617	1.2708	1.2615	1.2609
EUR/CHF	0.9120	0.9128	0.9094	0.9189

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index remained firm Monday on the back of safe haven demand as tensions in West Asia escalated over the weekend. The war, which is in its fourth week, showed no signs of slowing down as Iran on Sunday said it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours in retaliation to threats from US President Donald Trump, made a day earlier. 

 

"If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" Trump posted on social media on Saturday. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliament's speaker, said overnight that oil prices would "rise for a long time".

 

At 1507 IST, the index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.92 against 99.50 Friday and 99.16 Thursday. 

 

The yen erased some losses and was down 0.1% against the dollar as intervention warnings by officials supported the Japanese currency. As the yen neared 160 a dollar on Monday, a level at which intervention is expected, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the government stands ready to "take all possible measures under any circumstances."

The pound sterling was down 0.1% against the dollar. The British currency fell despite rising government bond yields in the UK. The 10-year UK yield on Monday rose to levels last seen during the financial crisis of 2008. The euro was down 0.2% against the greenback on fears of inflation due to a surge in energy prices. On Tuesday, preliminary March Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index data from Germany, the Eurozone and the US will be watched closely. 

 

The war also led to major central banks leaving interest rates unchanged at policy meetings last week. The US Federal Reserve, along with the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan left rates unchanged but signalled readiness to tighten policy further should inflationary pressures persist.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums rise as importers buy fwd dollars after rupee tumbles

 

	AT 1425 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9250	93.8300	93.8050	93.9450	93.7100
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	271.86	267.36	272.82	267.31	264.71

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across all tenures Monday as banks persistently bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who expect a further fall in the rupee amid the continued escalation in hostilities in West Asia and consequent rise in crude oil prices, dealers said.

 

The Indian currency fell to record low of 93.9450 a dollar on Monday, after logging its biggest single day fall in over four years on Friday. The Indian unit has depreciated almost 3.2% against the dollar since the conflict in West Asia began on Feb. 28. 

 

"Rupee has sustained below 93.00 very well. Naturally, there is a lot of paying due to that," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Even today, RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has not shown much intent to change the levels from here."

 

The conflict in West Asia has entered its fourth week and has shown no signs of easing, pushing price of crude oil higher and exerting downward pressure on the local unit. The RBI Monday likely sold dollars in the spot market to prevent further depreciation of the domestic unit, dealers said. However, most dealers said the central bank unlikely sold dollars for forward delivery Monday to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity. 

 

Meanwhile, a rise in US Treasury yields Friday limited gains for the forward premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a 10-month high Friday on concern that the West Asia conflict would keep upward pressure on crude oil prices and in turn, stoke inflation.

 

Dealers see strong technical support for the one-year forward premium at 3.00%. At 1425 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.92%, higher than Friday's close of 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 271.86 paise, against 264.71 paise Friday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Remains sharply down on West Asia tensions; RBI holds off 94/$1

 

	AT 1355 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9200	93.8050	93.8300	93.9450	93.7100

 

NEW DELHI - The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar, hovering near its record low, owing to continued rise in crude oil prices and a slump in domestic equities amid the heightened tensions in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a lifetime low of 93.9450 a dollar during the day.  

 

However, state-owned banks continously sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which kept the Indian unit from falling past the psychologically-crucial 94-per-dollar mark, dealers said. The Indian unit had fallen past the 93.00 mark for the first time on Friday. 

 

"The market is on buying (of dollars) mode all across. There has been no respite on the global front," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "We could have easily seen 94.00 (a dollar) if not for RBI. It is just few paise away." 

 

Banks continued to purchase dollars on behalf of foreign portfolio investors looking to pull out funds from Indian markets, weighing on the local unit, dealers said. So far in March, FPIs have pulled out funds worth $10.78 billion from domestic markets, on a net basis. At 1355 IST, Nifty 50 and Sensex were down over 2?ch. 

 

Banks also bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who fear further depreciation of the Indian unit amid the ongoing global uncertainty, dealers said. Brent crude May futures were at $113.65 per barrel at 1355 IST, higher than $112.19 per barrel on Friday and $108.65 per barrel on Thursday.

 

Traders remain cautious of further developments related to the conflict in West Asia, especially after US President Donald Trump Saturday threatened to hit Iran's electricity grid in 48 hours. Iran Sunday said it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours in retaliation if Trump followed through on his threat. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.60 and 94.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 23

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – At 1110 IST, the rupee was at 93.9050 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 93.8300 a dollar, against the previous close of 93.7100 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Public-sector bank	94.00	93.95	93.86	93.78
Public-sector bank	94.30	94.00	93.50	93.00
Private-sector bank	94.20	94.00	93.79	93.60
Private-sector bank	94.10	94.00	93.50	93.20
Foreign bank	94.20	94.00	93.50	93.00
Brokerage firm	-	94.00	93.00	92.80
Brokerage firm	-	94.00	93.00	92.80

 

(Pratiksha, Divya Moolayattil, and Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: At record low as West Asia tensions escalate; RBI limits fall

 

	AT 0948 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.9100	93.8300	93.8300	93.9175	93.7100

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell to a record low of 93.9175 a dollar Monday as risk appetite among investors was dampened owing to escalating tensions in West Asia, with the US and Iran exchanging increasing threats. The conflict in West Asia has entered its fourth week and has shown no signs of cooling down. 

 

Iran on Sunday said it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours in retaliation if US President Donald Trump followed through on his threat, delivered a day earlier, to hit Iran's electricity grid in 48 hours. Domestic equities slumped Monday, weighing on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0948 IST, both the Sensex and Nifty 50 were 1.6% lower each. 

 

However, lossess of the Indian currency were limiteed as state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The central bank's likely intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said. 

 

"The RBI may be doing some management of the levels, but not very actively. The damage has already been done," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The Indian currency tumbled almost 1.2% against the dollar on Friday, the most in a day since Feb. 24, 2022. 

 

Other Asian currencies also weakened against the greenback Monday, further exerting pressure on the local unit, dealers said. Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.8% against the dollar, with the Philippine peso being the worst hit. 

 

Market participants will closely track prices of Brent crude oil during the day amid the ongoing hostilities in West Asia. Brent crude May futures were at $112.84 per barrel at 0948 IST, higher than $112.19 per barrel on Friday and $108.65 per barrel on Thursday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.50 and 94.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 94.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Decline as tensions in West Asia continue to escalate

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies declined sharply against the dollar as risk sentiment among investors remained dampened amid escalating tensions in West Asia, with the US and Iran exchanging increasing threats. The conflict in West Asia has entered its fourth week and has shown no signs of easing. 

 

Iran on Sunday said it would strike the energy and water systems of its Gulf neighbours in retaliation if US President Donald Trump acted on his threat, delivered a day earlier, to hit Iran's electricity grid in 48 hours. Asian equities tumbled in early trade Monday, with the South Korea's Kospi falling over 5%, while Brent crude prices settled over 3% higher Friday, weighing on Asian units. 

 

The Phillipine peso slumped 0.8% against the greenback, the most among its peers, while the Taiwan dollar was down 0.6%. Data released Friday showed Taiwan's export orders rose less than expected in February. Export orders in February rose 23.8% on year to $63.88 billion, below analysts' expectations of a rise of 25.5%, reports said. 

 

Both the Indonesian rupiah and the South Korean won were down 0.6% against the dollar. On Sunday, Shin Hyun-song was named the head of South Korea's central bank. He will replace Rhee Chang-yong as Bank of Korea's governor, when his term ends on Apr. 20. Shin said he would seek a "balanced" policy approach with inflation, growth and financial stability under consideration. The Thai baht was down 0.4% and the Chinese yuan was 0.1% lower against the US unit.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 23

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	94.00	93.00
Private-sector bank	94.00	93.40
Private-sector bank	93.80	93.00
Foreign bank	94.00	93.30
Brokerage firm	94.00	93.50
Brokerage firm	94.10	93.10

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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