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Informist, Friday, Mar. 20, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – In highly volatile trade, the rupee plunged against the dollar to log its biggest single day fall in over four years as crude oil prices continued to rise amid escalating tensions in West Asia, dealers said. Lack of any support from the Reserve Bank of India also pushed the local unit down, they said.

 

"Rupee was in unchartered territories today. Nobody knew what to expect after any level," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "RBI clearly let it go and was practically missing from the scene."

 

The rupee tumbled almost 1.2% against the dollar on Friday, the most since Feb. 24, 2022 – the day Russia invaded Ukraine, and ended at 93.7100 a dollar, against 92.6300 on Wednesday. With this, the Indian currency has depreciated almost 3% against the dollar since the conflict in West Asia began.

 

The rupee was the worst performing currency amongst its Asian peers. Brent crude oil prices topped $110 per barrel on Friday, despite leading European nations, Japan, and Canada offering to join efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the ‌US outlining measures to increase oil supply.

 

The West Asia conflict is now in its third week and has shown no signs of easing, with Israel and Iran launching fresh attacks on each other on Friday, a day after Tehran struck an Israeli oil refinery and after US President Donald Trump warned Israel against further attacks on an Iranian offshore gas field shared with Qatar, reports said.

 

Brent crude May futures were at $110.68 per barrel at 1530 IST, compared to $108.65 per barrel on Thursday. Brent crude prices have risen nearly 7% this week. If the upward trajectory of crude oil continues, India will be staring at a much higher current account deficit, a sharp rise in inflation, and lower GDP growth.

 

The spot market was closed Thursday for Gudi Padwa but the one-month dollar-rupee non-deliverable forwards contract fell to almost 93.77 a dollar during the day as tensions in West Asia escalated. The Indian unit continued this momentum on Friday and began the day on a weaker note, falling past the psychologically-crucial 93-per-dollar mark shortly after opening.

 

"There was a sense in the market that 93.00 will be broken easily because in offshore we had seen that level," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "What we were not sure about was the extent of the fall. That sort of caught people off guard."

 

The Indian unit was also weighed down by persistent dollar demand from oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared the Indian unit would fall further amid the ongoing hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. The rupee was also pressured by foreign portfolio outflows from Indian markets, they said. So far in March, foreign portfolio investors have pulled out over $9 billion from domestic markets on a net basis.

 

The RBI remained absent from the spot market and did not step in to intervene and limit the decline of the Indian unit, dealers said. "A large chunk of the panic was because RBI left the market on its own. Eventually, market had to find its own level," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

The rupee hit a record low of 93.7550 a dollar in the last leg of trade. Some dealers said the RBI may have stepped away from intervening in the spot market to avoid depleting its foreign exchange reserves at a time when the conflict in West Asia only seems to be escalating, with no end in sight in the near-future. India's foreign exchange reserves were at $716.81 billion as on Mar. 6.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.7100	92.8900	92.8800	93.7550	92.6300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	264.71	263.14	265.71	262.68	261.52

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures Friday as the rupee's slump below the psychologically-crucial 93-per-dollar mark prompted banks to persistently buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who fear a further fall of the local currency going ahead, dealers said.

 

Most dealers said importers are hedging their foreign exchange exposures for the near-to-medium term. They expect premiums to keep rising because of this. At 1530 IST, the one-month exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 4.50%, higher than Wednesday's close of 4.18%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 35.76 paise, against 32.92 paise Wednesday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.82%, unchanged from Wednesday's close of 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 264.71 paise, against 261.52 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of crude oil prices as the conflict in West Asia continues to evolve, dealers said. The local currency will also track movement of the dollar index, they said.

 

"The macro environment remains unfavorable for the rupee, with higher energy costs and persistent dollar demand weighing on sentiment," Jateen Trivedi, vice president research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. "Unless crude prices ease meaningfully, the rupee is likely to stay under pressure. In the near term, the rupee is expected to trade in a weaker range of 93.00–94.25 against the US dollar."

 

Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also weigh on the rupee.

 

While some market participants expect the RBI to step in to intervene through dollar sales in case the Indian unit comes under extreme pressure. However, noting the Indian currency's slump on Friday, some dealers expect the central bank to let the Indian unit depreciate in the face of external uncertainties.

 

They now see immediate technical support for the Indian currency at 94.00 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 93.50-94.00 against the dollar Monday.

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 India Rupee - World FX: Pound sterling falls after BoE Bailey's comments

 

	AT 1525 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3383	1.3442	1.3382	1.3428
EUR/USD	1.1547	1.1596	1.1548	1.1581
NZD/USD	0.5864	0.5892	0.5864	0.5869
AUD/USD	0.7064	0.7097	0.7064	0.7084
USD/JPY	158.8220	158.8270	157.7090	157.7920
USD/CAD	1.3719	1.3743	1.3711	1.3729
EUR/JPY	183.4080	183.5110	182.6020	182.7500
CHF/USD	1.2681	1.2698	1.2657	1.2676
EUR/CHF	0.9106	0.9137	0.9105	0.9133

 

NEW DELHI – The pound sterling fell 0.2% against the dollar after Bank of ‌England Governor Andrew Bailey said Thursday that financial markets are getting ahead of themselves in expecting interest rate hikes from the central bank. His comments came after rate hike expectations gained momentum after the central bank's decision to hold rates at 3.75% Thursday. "I would caution against reaching any strong conclusions about us raising interest rates.... Today we've given a very clear message. The right place to be is on hold," Bailey was reported to have said.

 

The euro was also down 0.2?ter the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday as expected but signalled it was closely watching risks to growth and inflation from surging oil prices. Reuters, citing sources, Thursday said the ECB may need to begin discussing interest rate hikes in April and possibly tighten policy at its following meeting in June, unless the conflict in West Asia is resolved.

 

The yen was down 0.6% even after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady Thursday while maintaining its bias for tighter monetary policy. The central bank warned that soaring crude oil prices following the West Asia conflict could exacerbate inflationary pressures.

 

The dollar index edged slightly higher, tracking the fall in the euro, pound sterling, and yen. At 1525 IST, the index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.46 against 99.16 Thursday and 100.23 Wednesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premium up as importers actively buy fwd dlrs after rupee slumps

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.3650	92.8900	92.8800	93.4800	92.6300
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	265.71	263.14	265.71	262.68	261.52

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across all tenures Friday as the rupee's slump below the psychologically-crucial 93-per-dollar mark prompted banks to persistently buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who fear a further fall of the local currency going ahead, dealers said.  

 

"There is a lot of panic in the market after the kind of movement we have seen in rupee today (Friday)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "So, at least in the near buckets we are seeing good hedging." 

 

At 1340 IST, the one-month exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 4.53%, higher than Wednesday's close of 4.18%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 35.76 paise, against 32.92 paise Wednesday.

 

The rupee slumped below the psychologically-crucial 93-per-dollar mark and hit a record low of 93.4800 a dollar on Friday as escalation in hostilities in West Asia weakened risk appetite among investors and kept crude oil prices elevated, dealers said. The West Asia conflict, now in its third week with no signs of easing, escalated sharply with a strike on Iran's South Pars gasfield Wednesday. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi Thursday said any further attack by the US and Israel on its energy infrastructure would be retaliated with much more force than the last attack.

 

At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.84%, higher than Wednesday's close of 2.82%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 265.21 paise, against 261.52 paise Wednesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 20

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – At 1115 IST, the rupee was at 93.2050 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.8900 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.6300 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	93.75	93.50	92.75	92.25
Private-sector bank	93.40	93.35	92.80	92.50
Private-sector bank	93.50	93.30	92.80	92.50
Foreign bank	93.60	93.31	92.15	92.03
Brokerage firm	93.50	93.30	92.50	92.00
Brokerage firm	93.80	93.50	92.20	92.00

 

(Pratiksha, Divya Moolayattil, and Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Falls past 93/$1 as importers buy dlrs amid West Asia tensions

 

	AT 1020 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	93.2250	92.8900	92.8800	93.2775	92.6300

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell past the psychologically crucial 93-per-dollar mark and hit a record low of 93.2775 as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, fearing further fall of the Indian unit amid the ongoing hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. 

 

Dealers said some stop-losses on short dollar bets were triggered around 93.00 a dollar, which further aggravated the decline of the Indian unit. "The West Asia situation is dictating everything for rupee right now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "93.00 (a dollar) was very much expected since we had seen such levels in offshore yesterday (Thursday). RBI also let it go." 

 

The West Asia conflict is now in its third week and has shown no signs of easing. If the upward trajectory of crude oil continues, India will be staring at a much higher current account deficit, a sharp rise in inflation, and lower GDP growth. Brent crude June futures were at $102.54 per barrel at 1020 IST, compared to $103.78 per barrel on Thursday.

 

Dealers said the Reserve Bank of India largely stayed absent from the market, and did not try much to prevent the Indian currency from falling past the 93-per-dollar mark. The spot market was closed Thursday for Gudhi Padwa but the one-month dollar-rupee non-deliverable forwards contract fell to almost 93.77 a dollar during the day Thursday. "The next stop for rupee looks like 93.30 for now, but if RBI stays away, 93.50 will easily happen," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 93.00 and 93.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.30 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: At record low as oil high, risk appetite hit on W Asia tensions

 

	AT 0935 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.9300	92.8900	92.8825	92.9375	92.6300

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply to a record low against the dollar as the latest escalation in hostilities in West Asia hit risk appetite among investors and kept crude oil prices elevated, dealers said. The Indian currency fell to a record low of 92.9375 a dollar. 

 

The West Asia conflict, now in its third week with no signs of easing, escalated sharply with a strike on Iran's South Pars gasfield Wednesday. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi Thursday said that any further attack by the US and Israel on its energy infrastructure would be retaliated with much more force than the last attack.

 

Oil ‌prices had surged to a high of $112 per barrel Thursday. However, they fell in early trade Friday after major European nations and Japan offered joint efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the US outlined steps ‌to boost oil supply. Brent crude June futures were at $102.44 per barrel at 0935 IST, compared to $103.78 per barrel on Thursday.

 

Dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India might have stepped in to sell dollars to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the psycologically crucial 93-per-dollar mark. "Technically, as the (dollar-rupee) pair has broken the 92.50 level, 93.00–93.20 should act as strong resistance. On the downside, support is now placed at 92.00–92.20," Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.70 and 93.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 93.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Taiwan dollar up after central bank policy decision

 

NEW DELHI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as market participants continued to assess latest developments related to the conflict in West Asia. Hostilities in the region continued for a third straight week with no signs of easing, as the situation escalated after Israel's strike on Iran's South Pars gas field Wednesday. Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi Thursday said any further attack by the US and Israel on its energy infrastructure would prompt retaliation with much more force than the previous attack.

 

Amid the rising hostilities, oil ‌prices had surged to a high of $112 per barrel Thursday. However, prices eased in early trade Friday after major European nations and Japan offered joint efforts to secure safe passage for ships through the Strait of Hormuz and the US outlined steps ‌to increase oil supply, providing support to Asian currencies. Weakness in the dollar index, tracking gains of the euro, pound sterling and the Japanese yen, following the countries' respective monetary policy decisions Thursday, also aided Asian units. 

 

The Phillipine peso rose 0.5% against the dollar and the Indonesian rupiah was up 0.4%. The Taiwan dollar was up 0.1?ter its central bank Thursday raised its growth outlook signficantly for ‌the year on the back of strong tech exports. It also raised its inflation forecast and said it could tighten monetary policy if the war in West Asia continued for long. The central bank left the benchmark discount rate at 2%, as expected. 

 

The South Korean won was down 0.1% against the greenback and the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht were down 0.5?ch. The Chinese yuan was flat against the US unit. China's central bank is expected to keep benchmark lending rates steady for the 10th consecutive month on Friday amid rising oil prices on the back of tensions in West Asia, as per a Reuters poll.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 20

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	93.00	92.70
State-owned bank	93.25	92.50
Private-sector bank	93.30	92.70
Private-sector bank	93.15	92.75
Private-sector bank	93.25	92.80
Foreign bank	93.25	92.60
Brokerage firm	93.30	92.50
Brokerage firm	93.07	92.77

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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