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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 18, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell sharply Wednesday and settled at a record closing low against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India let go of its defence of the key 92.47-a-dollar level it was actively protecting for the last three trading days, which led to stop losses being triggered on short dollar bets, dealers said.

 

"There was no sudden buying (of dollars) in the market. RBI was protecting 92.50 for last few days but today they just left it and then stop losses were hit," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. However, after the sudden sharp fall, the central bank likely stepped in to sell dollars to limit further decline of the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

The rupee fell to a record low of 92.6450 a dollar before settling at 92.6300, declining 0.3% from its previous close of 92.3700.

 

The Indian currency was the worst performer among emerging market peers. On the other hand, most other Asian currencies rose against the dollar, gaining 0.1-0.5%. 

 

The Indian unit started the day on a slightly weaker note as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who feared the rupee would depreciate further amid escalating hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. In the latest development, Iran targeted Tel Aviv with missiles carrying cluster warheads in retaliation for Israel's assassination of its security chief Ali Larijani, media reports said. Further, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the country's stance against the development of nuclear weapons will not significantly change. 

 

However, the RBI marked its presence in the spot market around 92.47 a dollar, by selling dollars, which prevented the Indian unit from hitting a record low and kept the rupee in a tight range of 5-6 paise for most of the day. The RBI had been intervening actively in the spot market for the last three days to keep the Indian unit from falling to a record low, as per dealers.

 

Activity in the currency market was dull for most the day as traders refrained from placing large bets due to the RBI's active intervention. Traders also avoided fresh bets ahead of the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve later in the day.

 

However, during the last hour of the trade, the RBI unexpectedly allowed the Indian unit to fall past 92.47 a dollar, leading to stop losses being triggered on short dollar bets, dealers said. "There was no trigger as such for RBI to let the level break, they just did it," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think it was to keep away speculators. There is no point protecting a particular level when the bias is completely towards weakness."

 

The rupee did not take much support from a sharp rise in domestic equities, as per dealers. On Wednesday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.8% higher each. The benchmark equity indices extended gains for the third session Wednesday, driven by rise in shares of information technology companies and select automobile makers.

 

However, the RBI ensured the Indian unit did not depreciate excessively, as it likely stepped in to sell dollars below 92.60 a dollar, dealers said. "I think they (RBI) are ensuring gradual depreciation. They have to let it (rupee) depreciate. Their forward book is already so big," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. The RBI's net outstanding sales of dollar-rupee forward contracts rose to a nine-month high of $67.77 billion at the end of January.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.6300	92.4100	92.4100	92.6450	92.3700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	261.52	260.57	261.52	257.13	262.43

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premiums ended off the day's low as the sharp fall of the rupee prompted banks to buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who feared the rupee would decline further, dealers said.

 

A fall in US Treasury yields ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day also supported the premiums, they said. The US Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep rates on hold. However, traders will look for cues on how higher crude oil prices due to the West Asia conflict could influence the US rate outlook.

 

Premiums fell across most tenures earlier in the day as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise the impact of its spot interventions and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June 2027, they said.

 

After hitting a low of 2.78?rlier in the day, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium settled at 2.82%, slightly lower than Tuesday's close of 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 261.52 paise, against 262.43 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

The currency market is closed Thursday for Gudhi Padwa. On Friday, the rupee will take cues from the movement of crude oil prices with the conflict in West Asia continuing to be in focus, dealers said. The local currency will also track movement of the dollar index after the US Federal Reserve's policy decision late Wednesday.

 

Market participants will also assess policy decisions by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, all of which are due on Thursday. All these central banks are expected to keep rates unchanged, though investors will look for cues on how higher crude prices due to the West Asia conflict could influence the rate outlook.

 

Dealers expect oil companies and other importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also weigh on the Indian unit.

 

Most market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent a sharp depreciation of the rupee. They now see technical support for the Indian currency at 92.80 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in a range of 92.40-92.80 against the dollar Friday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar steady before FOMC decision; euro down

 

	AT 1435 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3347	1.3375	1.3341	1.3352
EUR/USD	1.1531	1.1549	1.1518	1.1533
NZD/USD	0.5859	0.5872	0.5853	0.5851
AUD/USD	0.7106	0.7123	0.7100	0.7098
USD/JPY	159.0040	159.1370	158.5730	158.9160
USD/CAD	1.3698	1.3713	1.3688	1.3689
EUR/JPY	183.3500	183.5690	182.9690	183.3700
CHF/USD	1.2716	1.2745	1.2698	1.2729
EUR/CHF	0.9068	0.9072	0.9056	0.9056

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar index was broadly steady ahead of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy  committee decision later in the day, where it is expected to keep rates on hold. Market participants will watch out for commentary on high oil prices as Fed policymakers weigh on inflation concern against signs of a weakening jobs market. At 1435 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 99.62, broadly steady from 99.56 Tuesday and down from 99.82 Monday.

 

The yen was also flat against the greenback ahead of the Bank of Japan's policy decision on Thursday, where it is expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.75%. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will visit the White House on Thursday for meeting US President Donald Trump. Besides the conflict in West Asia, Takaichi is likely to discuss a second round of Japanese investment in the US as part of tariff deal, reports said. 

 

Both the euro and pound sterling were down 0.1% against the dollar. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to hold rates steady when they announce their monetary policy decisions Thursday. The Australian dollar was steady against the US unit. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premiums dn; RBI likely sells fwd dlrs to avert liquidity drain

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.4600	92.4100	92.4100	92.4675	92.3700
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	259.07	260.57	261.07	257.13	262.43

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across most tenures Wednesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise the impact of its spot interventions and avoid pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in June 2027, they said.

 

"I think RBI is naturally trying to neutralise all the intervention they are doing in spot," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "We saw recieving yesterday (Tuesday) as well. They are using mainly the June 2027 bucket." On Tuesday, the RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in 10-15 months, dealers said.

 

This week, the central bank has been actively selling dollars in the spot market to prevent the rupee from hitting a record low, dealers said. Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. The net liquidity absorbed by the RBI from the banking system--a proxy for systemic liquidity surplus--was INR 819.64 billion Tuesday. 

 

Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further depreciation of the rupee amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict in West Asia, which limited losses for forward premiums, dealers said. A fall in US Treasury yields ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision, later in the day, also supported the premiums, they said. 

 

The US Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep rates on hold. However, traders will look for cues on how higher crude prices due to the West Asia conflict could influence the US rate outlook. 

 

At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.80%, lower than Tuesday's close of 2.83%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 259.07 paise, against 262.43 paise Tuesday. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: In thin band as RBI's intervention offsets importers' dlr buys

 

	AT 1245 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.4300	92.4100	92.4100	92.4525	92.3700

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was in a tight range against the dollar as state-owned banks actively sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which offset the impact of banks' dollar purchases on behalf of importers, dealers said. The Indian unit has traded in a range of just four paise so far on Wednesday. 

 

The RBI likely sold dollars around 92.45 a dollar to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a record low, as has been the case so far this week, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a record low of 92.4750 a dollar last week. "There is not much happening in the market today (Wednesday). Rupee is just in a range. No activity as such, RBI has just kept it there," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Ever since the conflict in West Asia has escalated, importers have been actively buying dollars, fearing further depreciation of the rupee, exerting downward pressure on the Indian unit, dealers said. However, a sharp rise in domestic equities Wednesday offered some support to the Indian unit, they said. At 1245 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.8?ch. 

 

Market participants now await the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve later in the day. While the US Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep rates on hold, traders will look for cues on inflation and economic outlook amid the escalating confict in West Asia. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.20 and 92.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 18

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – At 1108 IST, the rupee was at 92.4300 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.4100 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.3700 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.58	92.50	92.35	92.27
State-owned bank	92.65	92.50	92.25	92.00
Foreign bank	92.60	92.47	92.35	92.22
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.50	92.20	91.70
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.80	91.80	91.70

 

(Pratiksha, Divya Moolayattil, and Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Tad down as importers buy dollars; RBI may prevent record low

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.4300	92.4100	92.4100	92.4425	92.3700

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar, hovering near its record low, as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, who fear further depreciation of the rupee amid escalating hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a record low of 92.4750 a dollar on Friday. 

 

In the latest in the West Asia conflict, the Iran government confirmed Tuesday that its security chief Ali Larijani was killed by Israel. Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Ali Khamenei has rejected de-escalation offers conveyed by intermediary countries, Reuters reported, citing senior Iranian officials. 

 

Market participants expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales to prevent the Indian unit from hitting a lifetime low, as has been the case the last few days. "I am expecting 92.50 to hold out, unless crude shoots up beyond $105 (a barrel) today (Wednesday)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Tensions have been escalating but not much is reflecting in crude prices in the last few days." Brent crude price for May futures were at $101.58 per barrel at 0940 IST, down compared to $103.42 per barrel on Tuesday.

 

Meanwhile, a rise in domestic equities supported the Indian currency, dealers said. At 0940 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were up 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. 

 

Market participants now await the monetary policy decision of the US Federal Reserve later in the day. While the US Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep rates on hold, traders will watch out for cues on inflation and economic outlook amid the escalating confict in West Asia. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.20 and 92.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as Asia shrs gain; Phillipine peso rises most

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Wednesday, tracking gains in domestic equities, as investors turned their focus to the US Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day. The US Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep rates on hold. However, traders will look for cues on how higher crude prices due to the West Asia conflict could influence the US rate outlook. 

 

A fall in Brent crude oil prices in early trade also supported the Asian units. Brent crude price for May futures were at $102.23 per barrel at 0850 IST compared to $103.42 per barrel on Tuesday.

 

The Phillipine peso rose 0.4% against the greenback, the most among its peers, after Finance Secretary Frederick Go said Tuesday that the Philippine central bank might need to tighten monetary policy next month if oil prices keep rising due to the US-Iran war. "If the price of oil continues to persist at elevated levels, it is most likely that the Monetary Board will consider tightening in the next meeting," Go said in an interview with Bloomberg.

 

The Indonesian rupiah was up 0.2% against the dollar after Indonesia's central bank ‌kept key interest rates unchanged on Tuesday and hinted at little room for rate cuts going forward amid the conflict in West Asia. Bank Indonesia held the benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 4.75%. 

 

The South Korean won also rose 0.2% against the US unit as South Korea's Kospi led the gains amomg Asian stock markets in early trade, rising nearly 4%.

 

Both the Malaysian ringgit and Taiwan dollar were also up 0.2% against the dollar. Bucking the trend, the Chinese yuan and Thai baht were flat against the dollar. (Pratiksha)  

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 18

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.55	92.25
State-owned bank	92.48	92.25
State-owned bank	92.80	92.30
Private-sector bank	92.45	92.25
Private-sector bank	92.60	92.25
Private-sector bank	92.50	92.20
Foreign bank	92.65	92.10
Brokerage firm	92.48	92.21
Brokerage firm	92.65	92.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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