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Informist, Tuesday, Mar. 17, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended slightly higher against the dollar Tuesday owing to the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention through dollar sales and a sharp rise in domestic equities, dealers said. However, a jump in crude oil prices limited the local currency's rise, they said.

 

"RBI has been selling (dollars) everyday now. Market did not move much only because of that today (Tuesday)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "If not for them, 92.50 would have broken and rupee would have gone to 92.80 around levels today."

 

After trading in a tight range of 10 paise during the day, the rupee settled at 92.3700, against 92.4200 Monday. Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar, gaining 0.1-0.4%.

 

The Indian currency started the day largely steady against the dollar as the impact of the rise of Asian currencies was offset by a jump in crude oil prices, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices rose over 3% Tuesday.

 

Oil prices rose on concern about supply, with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut and US allies rejecting President Donald Trump's call to send warships to the region to help oil tankers move through the crucial waterway. Trump Monday repeated his call to countries to help unblock the strait and complained that some did not seem enthusiastic about helping Washington. Brent crude price for May delivery was at $103.30 per barrel at 1530 IST, compared with $100.21 per barrel Monday.

 

However, shortly after opening, the Indian currency hit a low of 92.4725 a dollar, a hair's breadth from the record low of 92.4750 a dollar. "The trend for the rupee is on the downside till oil comes down to $80 and FPIs come into a buying mode in equity and debt, both of which looks like a no-no scenario for now," Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, said.

 

The conflict in West Asia is in its third week now with no sign of de-escalation. Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz ‌said Tuesday the country's military had killed Iran's security chief and the head of its Basij militia in air strikes overnight. Tehran also kept up its attacks on its neighbours in the Persian Gulf region, according to reports.

 

Further, banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies and other importers who feared the rupee may depreciate further. This also weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said. The rupee has depreciated over 1.6% against the greenback so far this month.

 

Persistent outflows of foreign portfolio investor funds from the Indian markets also weighed on the local unit, according to dealers. So far in March, FPIs have net withdrawn $7.40 billion from the domestic markets.

 

The central bank stepped in with dollar sales when the rupee approached its record low, dealers said. The RBI's active intervention ensured the currency did not fall to the lifetime low, they said. The RBI may have sold around $1.5 billion-$2.0 billion in the spot market Tuesday, according to some dealers. "By its consistent intervention RBI has sort of indicated that rupee will not fall sharply from here, unless crude (oil) prices rise very significantly. Looks like they will absorb the day-to-day swings in crude (oil)," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.

 

Domestic equities rose Tuesday, with metal and automobile companies being the major gainers. This, too, supported the rupee, dealers said. The Nifty 50 ended 0.7% higher while the Sensex ended 0.8% higher Tuesday.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.3700	92.3900	92.3700	92.4725	92.4200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	262.43	268.93	270.14	261.57	267.54

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended lower across tenures as the RBI likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI is likely to have sold forward dollars for maturity in 10-15 months, they said.

 

Since spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity. A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity.

 

The net liquidity absorbed by the RBI from the banking system--a proxy for the systemic liquidity surplus--was INR 754.84 billion Monday, the lowest since Jan. 28 and down sharply from INR 2.08 trillion Sunday. Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers who feared the rupee would fall further, which limited the fall in forward premiums, dealers said.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.83%, down from Monday's close of 2.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 262.43 paise, against 267.54 paise Monday.

 

OUTLOOK

Wednesday, the rupee will track movement in crude oil prices with the conflict in West Asia continuing to be in focus, dealers said. The local currency may also track movement of the dollar index ahead of the outcome of multiple central bank meetings in the week, especially the US Federal Reserve's policy decision late Wednesday.

 

"The combination of strong dollar demand and rising energy costs is keeping the rupee under pressure. The overall bias remains weak as long as crude sustains at higher levels," Jateen Trivedi, vice-president and research analyst, commodity and currency, at LKP Securities, said in a note. "Market focus now shifts to the US Fed policy decision due tomorrow late evening, which is expected to act as a key trigger for the next directional move in the dollar, and consequently, the rupee."

 

Dealers expect crude oil and other importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Persistent foreign portfolio outflows may also weigh on the Indian unit.

 

However, most market participants expect the RBI to continue intervening through dollar sales and prevent a sharp depreciation of the rupee. They see strong technical support for the Indian currency at 92.50 a dollar. The rupee is likely to move in the range of 92.20-92.60 against the dollar Wednesday.

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India Rupee - World FX: Australian dollar down despite central bank rate hike

 

	AT 1430 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3327	1.3331	1.3274	1.3318
EUR/USD	1.1509	1.1518	1.1466	1.1503
NZD/USD	0.5836	0.5858	0.5817	0.5854
AUD/USD	0.7082	0.7093	0.7050	0.7068
USD/JPY	159.1040	159.4940	159.0370	158.9880
USD/CAD	1.3690	1.3701	1.3681	1.3678
EUR/JPY	183.1040	183.2500	182.8250	183.0200
CHF/USD	1.2704	1.2717	1.2658	1.2685
EUR/CHF	0.9057	0.9068	0.9051	0.9056

 

NEW DELHI – The Australian dollar fell 0.1% against the dollar despite the Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to raise interest rates for the second consecutive month as the close vote led to uncertainty about further policy tightening. Tuesday, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%. Five board ‌members voted for the increase while four voted against the decision.

 

The yen also fell 0.1% against the greenback despite Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's verbal intervention Monday, saying authorities stand ready to act against excessive currency volatility. "We are prepared to take decisive steps on foreign exchange if necessary," she said, as per reports.

 

Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda Tuesday said underlying inflation is rising towards the central bank's ‌2% target, underlining that price rises must be matched by solid wage gains. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.75% at its two-day policy meeting ending Thursday.

 

The dollar index was broadly steady in European trade. The index had risen earlier in the day as investors flocked to the safe-haven asset with the conflict in West Asia continuing. At 1430 IST, the dollar index was at 99.79, lower than 99.82 Monday and 100.50 Friday. The index hit a high of 100.12 earlier in the day. 

 

The euro and the pound sterling were up 0.1% against the US currency. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to hold rates when they announce their monetary policy decisions Thursday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premiums fall as RBI likely sells long-tenure forward dollars

 

	AT 1330 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.4300	92.3900	92.3900	92.4725	92.4200
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	264.43	268.93	270.14	262.29	267.54

 

NEW DELHI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Tuesday as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars for long-tenure forward delivery to neutralise its spot interventions and avert pushing out rupee liquidity, dealers said. The RBI likely sold forward dollars for maturity in 10-15 months, they said.

 

"RBI has been very active in spot and now they are receiving in forwards too," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "This was very much inevitable. For now, seems like they are hitting the far tenures."

 

On Tuesday, the central bank sold dollars in the spot market as well, to prevent the rupee from hitting a record low, dealers said. Considering spot dollar sales push out rupee liquidity from the banking system, the RBI conducts buy-sell swaps to replenish liquidity.

 

A buy-sell swap entails buying dollars for immediate delivery and entering into a contract to sell these at a future date, thereby postponing the drain on systemic liquidity. The net liquidity absorbed by the RBI from the banking system--a proxy for systemic liquidity surplus--was INR 754.84 billion Monday, lowest since Jan. 28 and sharply down from INR 2.08 trillion Sunday. 

 

Meanwhile, some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, who fear further depreciation of the rupee amid the ongoing geopolitical conflict in West Asia, which limited losses for forward premiums, dealers said. The Indian currency has depreciated over 1.6% against the greenback so far this month. 

 

At 1330 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.85%, lower than Monday's close of 2.89%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 264.43 paise, against 267.54 paise Monday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: In thin band as RBI intervention offsets jump in crude prices

 

	AT 1220 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.4425	92.3900	92.3900	92.4725	92.4200

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee remained in a tight range against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India's likely intervention through dollar sales offset the impact of a jump in crude oil prices, dealers said. The Indian currency has traded in a range of just eight paise so far in the day. 

 

"RBI is holding rupee, else why would rupee stop at all-time low levels?" a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The sense is that 92.50 may hold out for today (Tuesday)."

 

The rupee fell to a low of 92.4725 a dollar Tuesday, just shy of its lifetime low of 92.4750, as crude oil prices rose over 3% on Tuesday. Oil prices increased owing to worries related to supply, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut and allies of the US turning down calls to send warships to help tankers move through the crucial waterway. Brent crude futures for May delivery were at $103.80 per barrel at 1220 IST, compared to $100.21 per barrel on Monday. 

 

The central bank likely stepped in through dollar sales to keep the Indian unit from hitting a record low, dealers said. The RBI has put up a strong defence for the Indian currency in the face of the ongoing conflict in West Asia. The Indian currency has depreciated over 1.6% against the greenback so far this month. 

 

Some banks bought dollars on behalf of oil and other importers, fearing further depreciation of the local unit, dealers said. A rise in the dollar index also weighed on the Indian currency, they said. At 1220 IST, the dollar index was at 100.05, higher than 99.82 Monday but lower than 100.50 Friday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.20 and 92.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 17

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – At 1130 IST, the rupee was at 92.4600 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.3900 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.4200 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.65	92.50	92.25	92.00
Private-sector bank	93.00	92.50	92.20	92.00
Private-sector bank	92.55	92.48	92.25	92.15
Foreign bank	92.60	92.47	92.35	92.25
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.80	92.20	91.70
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.80	91.80	91.70

 

(Pratiksha, Divya Moolayattil, and Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee:Steady as rise in crude prices offsets gains in Asian currencies

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.4300	90.3900	90.3900	90.4300	90.4200

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was largely steady against the dollar Tuesday as the impact of a rise in Asian currrencies was offset by a jump in crude oil prices, dealers said. Brent crude oil prices rose over 2% in early trade Tuesday.

 

"Market is muted. Asia FX is positive but crude is up. So, we are seeing range-bound movement for now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I am expecting 92.50 to stay, but if it breaks, one can see 93.00 for rupee." 

 

Oil prices rose owing to concerns related to supply, with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut and US allies rejecting calls to send warships to help tankers move through the crucial waterway. Brent crude price for May futures were at $103.10 per barrel at 0930 IST compared to $100.21 per barrel on Monday. 

 

Meanwhile, most Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.4% against the dollar, with the Taiwan dollar being the best performer, tracking gains in local equities. However, Indian stock indices fell in early trade, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 0930 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.2?ch. 

 

Market participants expect the Reserve Bank of India to step in through dollar sales in case the Indian unit inches closer to its record low of 92.4750 a dollar. In the recent past, the RBI has been actively intervening in the spot market to keep the Indian unit from depreciating excessively amid escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.20 and 92.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most rise as Asian equities gain; Taiwan dlr up 0.4%

 

NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Tuesday, tracking gains in domestic equities. Asian stocks rose in early trade, tracking gains on Wall Street, which were driven by a rise in shares of artificial intelligence-focused companies such as Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla.

 

However, a rise in Brent crude oil prices in early trade Tuesday may weigh on Asian currencies. Oil prices rose over 2% owing to concerns related to supply, with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut and US allies rejecting calls to send warships to help tankers move through the crucial waterway. Market participants now await major central banks' policy decisions this week. The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of its two-day meeting on Wednesday.

 

The Taiwan dollar and Phillipine peso rose 0.4% against the greenback, the most among its emerging market peers. The Malaysian ringgit was up 0.2% while both the Chinese yuan and Indonesian rupiah were up 0.1% against the dollar. Bank Indonesia is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.75% for the sixth consecutive meeting on Tuesday amid the ongoing conflict in West Asia. 

 

"We see BI (Bank Indonesia) keeping rates on hold in this meeting, but the bias is still a dovish one for BI, and as such from a FX and rates perspective we think that both IDR (Indonesian rupiah) FX and bonds are biased to underperform in the midst of the SoH (Strait of Hormuz) crisis," MUFG Bank said in a report.

 

Bucking the trend, the Thai baht was down 0.4% against the greenback. Following last month's general election, Thailand's parliament will hold a session ‌on Thursday to vote on a new prime minister, House Speaker Sophon Zaram said on Monday.  (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 17

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.60	92.30
State-owned bank	92.50	92.30
Private-sector bank	92.46	92.25
Private-sector bank	92.45	92.10
Foreign bank	92.60	92.00
Brokerage firm	92.48	92.08
Brokerage firm	92.65	92.20

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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