India Rupee Review
Steady; dollar buys for oil cos, FX outflow offset RBI sales
This story was originally published at 16:55 IST on 16 March 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Monday, Mar. 16, 2026
By Kabir Sharma
NEW DELHI – The rupee erased all its gains and ended steady against the dollar as banks' dollar purchases for oil marketing companies and foreign fund outflows from Indian equities offset the impact of their sales on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said.
"With no signs of crude cooling down, its all up to them to keep it from rising more," a dealer at a private bank said.
In a tug of war between the dollar sales from RBI and constant dollar bids from oil marketing companies and foreign funds, the rupee moved in a narrow range of 16 paise during the day. After falling to 92.4725 a dollar, a whisker away from the record low of 92.4750, the rupee ended at 92.4200 a dollar on Monday, steady compared with Friday's close of 92.4550 a dollar.
A dampened risk sentiment also weighed on other Asian currencies which fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar on Monday with the South Korean won and the Philippines peso falling the most.
Despite the higher than usual volume on Monday, the rupee was restricted to a narrow range as every time it neared the record low, state owned banks would step in with dollar sales and support the Indian unit. However, dealers said if the record low breaks and the pair falls past 92.50 a dollar, it can fall to 93 a dollar level as 92.50 has accumulated a lot of stop losses.
The rupee started the day largely unchanged from Friday as the RBI absorbed the impact on rupee from the increased hostilities between the US and Iran over the weekend, dealers said. Crude oil prices remained above $100 a barrel on Monday as Iran refuted claims by US President Donald Trump that Tehran was looking to negotiate with Washington. At 1618 IST, Brent crude futures for May delivery were at $103.65, up from $103.14 on Friday and $100.46 on Thursday.
Dealers said some banks sold the greenback for Indian corporates who were looking to convert their dollar holdings for reporting at year-end closing. This supported the Indian unit. However, outflows from equities and a firm dollar index continued to weigh on the Indian unit, dealers said. Foreign investors have sold $5.7 billion worth of Indian equities so far this month as of Thursday, data showed.
The dollar index also remained close to a 10-month peak on Monday, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 1618 IST, the dollar index was at 100.20, compared with 100.50 Friday and 99.74 Thursday.
Dealers said India's trade data, reported earlier in the day, was worse than market expectations, which also weighed on the local currency. India's merchandise trade deficit widened in February on the back of higher gold and silver imports, according to data from the commerce ministry. The trade deficit widened to $27.10 billion in February from $14.42 billion a year ago.
| AT 0958 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 92.4200 | 92.4300 | 92.3100 | 92.4725 | 92.4550 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 267.54 | 263.04 | 270.07 | 263.04 | 263.88 |
FORWARDS
The dollar-rupee forward premiums were higher on Monday as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers and oil marketing companies who were looking to hedge their spot purchases of dollars due to excess volatility, dealers said.
Spot rupee was under pressure on Monday as crude oil prices remained above the $100 a barrel level due to escalations in the West Asia conflict, dealers said. The rise in premiums was limited by a rise in US Treasury yields, dealers said. US Treasury yields inched up on Friday as investors assessed the release of significantly slower, downwardly adjusted fourth-quarter GDP growth figures.
Simultaneously, the commerce department's second estimate indicated that US GDP rose 0.7% in Oct-Dec, sharply lower than the 1.4% growth forecast by economists surveyed by Reuters.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.89%, higher than Friday's close of 2.85%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 267.54 paise, against 263.88 paise Friday.
OUTLOOK
On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from crude oil price amid evolving developments in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement in the dollar index ahead of the outcome of multiple central bank meetings.
This week, at least eight central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, will convene to adjust rates during their initial policy meetings since the onset of the conflict.
Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars and prevent a sharp depreciation of the rupee. Dealers expect the central bank to ramp up its intervention whenever the Indian currency inches closer to 92.50 a dollar.
The rupee is likely to move in the range of 92.20-92.60 against the dollar on Tuesday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.50.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr index firm on safe haven demand; FOMC meet eyed
| AT 1525 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3251 | 1.3266 | 1.3227 | 1.3236 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1451 | 1.1456 | 1.1415 | 1.1467 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5823 | 0.5825 | 0.5779 | 0.5774 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7026 | 0.7028 | 0.6986 | 0.6988 |
| USD/JPY | 159.2730 | 159.7380 | 159.1760 | 159.7400 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3700 | 1.3727 | 1.3698 | 1.3807 |
| EUR/JPY | 182.3870 | 182.9133 | 181.8730 | 183.1800 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2670 | 1.2680 | 1.2622 | 1.2576 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9037 | 0.9047 | 0.9026 | 0.9116 |
NEW DELHI – The dollar index remained firm above 100 on safe-haven demand as tensions in West Asia showed no signs of cooling down. The US military hit targets located on Kharg Island over the weekend, an Iranian outpost in the Persian Gulf, and warned that it could hit oil infrastructure next if Tehran kept disrupting the passage of ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
US President Donald Trump also called on allies to help secure the Strait of Hormuz. At 1515 IST, the dollar index was at 100.26, against 100.50 Friday and 99.74 Thursday.
Market participants were cautious ahead of key central bank meetings later this week. The US Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday and the European Central Bank on Thursday. Both the central banks are expected to maintain interest rates, but the Fed will issue new economic forecasts, and undoubtedly, inflation concerns related to the war will be addressed. Similar issues will overshadow Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's statements after the decision. The euro rose 0.3% against the dollar.
The pound sterling erased losses and was steady against the dollar. The British currency was near its lowest level since December. Market participants are cautious ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decisions later this week. The UK central bank is anticipated to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% when it meets on Thursday, according to a poll by FX Street.
The yen was up 0.2% against the greenback. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on Monday that they were exploring ways to protect Japanese vessels in the West Asia but said they don't currently have any plan to dispatch the navy to the region. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Erases rise on importers' dollar buys; RBI dollar sales support
| AT 1426 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 92.4200 | 92.4300 | 92.3100 | 92.4725 | 92.4550 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee erased its rise and was steady against the dollar as banks' dollar purchases for oil marketing companies were offset by sales of dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said.
"They (RBI) took it to 30 (92.30) but there is enough demand at every dip in the (dollar-rupee) pair that it can't stay at low levels for long," a dealer at a private-sector bank said.
Dealers said some state-owned bank sold dollars on behalf of the RBI, though not aggressively, around 92.40 a dollar to prevent the rupee falling to a new low. "They (RBI) are just giving a hint and the exporters are taking it," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It is difficult to break 50 (92.50) because huge stop-losses have accumulated there," he said.
Persistent demand for dollars from oil marketing companies and other importers kept the rupee under pressure, dealers said. Dealers said India's trade data, reported earlier in the day, was worse than market expectations, which also weighed on the local currency.
India's merchandise trade deficit widened in February on the back of higher gold and silver imports, according to data from the commerce ministry. The trade deficit widened to $27.10 billion in February from $14.42 billion a year ago.
Dealers expect the RBI to actively intervene by way of sales of the greenback as the rupee moves closer to the record low of 92.4750 a dollar. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.10 and 92.60 against the dollar. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Premiums up on importers' fwd dollar buys; rise in US ylds weighs
| AT 0958 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 92.4150 | 92.4300 | 92.3100 | 92.4725 | 92.4550 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 269.21 | 263.04 | 270.07 | 263.04 | 263.88 |
MUMBAI – The dollar-rupee forward premiums were higher on Monday as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers and oil marketing companies who were looking to hedge their spot purchases of dollars due to excess volatility, dealers said.
"Pure hedging is driving the market up, anything below 3% seems to be a decent level in this situation," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Spot rupee remained under pressure on Monday as crude oil prices remained above the $100 a barrel level due to escalations in the West Asia conflict, dealers said. At 1404 IST, Brent crude futures for May delivery were at $105.49, up from $103.14 on Friday and $100.46 on Thursday.
The rise in premiums was limited by a rise in US Treasury yields, dealers said. US Treasury yields inched up on Friday as investors assessed the release of significantly slower, downwardly adjusted fourth-quarter GDP growth figures.
At 1406 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.91%, higher than Friday's close of 2.85%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 269.21 paise, against 263.88 paise Friday. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 16
MUMBAI – At 1126 IST, the rupee was at 92.4700 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.4300 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.4550 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 92.65 | 92.50 | 92.25 | 92.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 92.70 | 92.50 | 92.34 | 92.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 92.60 | 92.53 | 92.20 | 92.15 |
| Brokerage firm | 93.00 | 92.80 | 92.20 | 91.70 |
| Brokerage firm | 92.75 | 92.60 | 92.20 | 92.00 |
(Kabir Sharma, Divya Moolyattil, and Suryash Kumar)
India Rupee: Steady; banks' dollar sales for domestic cos offset high crude prices
| AT 0958 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 92.4400 | 92.4300 | 92.4150 | 92.4650 | 92.4550 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee was steady against the dollar in early trade as the impact of a surge in crude oil prices was offset by banks' dollar sales for inflows into Indian corporates, dealers said.
"Crude is showing no signs of cooling, some inflows are there for year-end closing but if 50 (92.50) breaks it can fall to 65 (92.65)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Crude oil prices remained above $100 a barrel on Monday as Iran refuted claims by US President Donald Trump that Tehran was looking to negotiate with Washington. At 0948 IST, Brent crude futures for May delivery were at $104.55, up from $103.14 on Friday and $100.46 on Thursday.
Dealers said some banks sold the greenback for Indian corporates who were looking to convert their dollar holdings for reporting at year-end closing. This supported the Indian unit. However, outflows from equities and a firm dollar index continued to weigh on the Indian unit, dealers said. Foreign investors have sold $5.7 billion worth of Indian equities so far this month as of Thursday, data showed.
The dollar index also remained close to a 10-month peak on Monday, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0825 IST, the dollar index was at 100.26, compared to 100.50 Friday and 99.74 Thursday.
Dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to intervene in the foreign exchange market by way of dollar sales should the rupee move closer to the record low of 92.4750 a dollar. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.10 and 92.60 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.50 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as safe haven appeal keeps dollar index above 100
NEW DELHI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar as the greenback remained near a 10-month high due to safe haven demand as there was no respite from the conflict in West Asia. At 0846 IST, the dollar index was at 100.26, compared to 100.50 Friday and 99.74 Thursday.
After US President Donald Trump said Iran badly wants to negotiate, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted that Tehran had not requested a ceasefire nor sought negotiations with Washington, saying the country would continue defending itself.
The South Korean won was down 0.1% against the dollar. The won fell below the 1,500 per dollar mark to its weakest level since 2009 but recovered following verbal intervention signals from authorities aimed at curbing further losses. South Korea's Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol said officials were prepared to act if currency volatility intensified.
The Philippines peso was down 0.3% against the dollar. The Philippine central bank is anticipated to act cautiously due to inflation concerns, refraining from further rate cuts. However, it is also unlikely to raise rates, as consumer inflation is projected to remain below 4% this year, even if Brent crude oil prices remain $100 per barrel.
The Indonesian rupiah was down 0.2% against the dollar. Bank Indonesia is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged for the sixth consecutive time on Tuesday, according to a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters, due to renewed pressure on the rupiah stemming from the West Asia conflict, which restricts the central bank's ability to relax policy. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 16
NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 92.65 | 92.40 |
| State-owned bank | 92.65 | 92.25 |
| Private-sector bank | 92.50 | 92.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 92.65 | 92.20 |
| Foreign bank | 92.60 | 92.20 |
| Brokerage firm | 92.70 | 92.20 |
(Kabir Sharma)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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