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Informist, Thursday, Mar. 12, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off lows against the dollar as banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India and exporters, dealers said. The Indian unit had hit a record low of 92.36 a dollar earlier in the session. 

 

"Heavy demand for dollars in the market today (Thursday), particularly from oilers (oil marketing companies) and FPIs (foreign portfolio investors)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "They (RBI) sold (dollars) throughout the day, which also gave a hint to exporters to sell around those levels." 

 

Despite active intervention by the RBI, the Indian unit slipped to a record low before ending the session at 92.19 per dollar, down from Wednesday's close of 92.0400 per dollar. The rupee moved within a relatively broad range of 31 paise on Thursday but did not rise above the 92-per-dollar mark, topping the day at 92.0500 per dollar. 

 

The rupee was sharply lower against the dollar at the start of trade Thursday, tracking a sharp rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. Other Asian currencies fell against the dollar by 0.3-0.7% as oil prices surged over 7% on Thursday, weighing on the import-dependent economies.

 

Iranian military officials said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel as it attacked three ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, including two in Iraq's territorial waters. Brent crude for May delivery topped $100 a barrel in Asian trade Thursday, jumping from $90.31 a barrel at 1700 IST Wednesday, the end of Indian market hours. 

 

However, news reports that India is in talks with Iran to secure safe passage for more than 20 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz calmed nerves, dealers said. The negotiations are being led by the Ministry of External Affairs, various media outlets reported. 

 

Banks bought the greenback for foreign fund outflows from Indian equities, which also weighed on the local unit, dealers said. The benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1-1.1% lower Thursady. 

 

As the rupee moved towards the day's low of 92.36 a dollar, the RBI stepped in and sold dollars to prevent it from falling sharply, dealers said. Sales from the central bank prompted exporters to sell the greenback, which in turn supported the Indian currency, dealers said. 

 

The dollar index was near an over four-month high due to safe-haven demand, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1658 IST, the dollar index was at 99.31, compared to 99.25 Wednesday and 98.91 Monday. The index had touched a near four-month high of 99.70 on Monday.

 

Market participants also assessed data on retail inflation in February. India's CPI inflation rose to 3.21% in February from 2.74% a month earlier, according to data released by the statistics ministry at 1600 IST. The inflation rate in February was slightly higher than the 3.1% estimate in an Informist Poll.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.1900	92.2750	92.0500	92.3600	92.0400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	267.89	271.89	277.21	266.07	268.23

 

FORWARDS

The dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady Thursday as a rise in forward dollar purchases by importers was offset by forward dollar sales by banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Forward premiums rose to an over-two-month high of 3.00% as volatility in the spot rupee increased, at which point the RBI stepped in and sold forward dollars. 

 

Some dealers also speculated that the RBI may announce a $10 billion buy/sell swap later in the day. The rise in premiums was despite a sharp rise in US Treasury yields, dealers said. 

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield hit an over one-month high of 4.24% Wednesday as concerns over a prolonged war in West Asia pushed back hopes of rate cuts amid inflationary fears. Data released Wednesday showed US retail inflation for February accelerated to 0.3% on month from a 0.2% increase in January. The annualised reading of headline inflation at 2.4% and core CPI inflation at 2.5% were in line with consensus estimates.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.91%, slightly higher than Thursday's close of 2.90%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 267.89 paise, against 268.23 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee is likely to take cues from crude oil price movements amid evolving developments related to hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement in the dollar index. 

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars and prevent a sharp depreciation of the rupee. Dealers expect the central bank to ramp up its intervention whenever the Indian currency inches closer to the record low of 92.36 a dollar. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in the 92.00-92.50 range against the dollar on Friday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.50.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dlr firm on rise in crude prices, safe haven demand

 

	AT 1626 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3392	1.3415	1.3362	1.3411
EUR/USD	1.1557	1.1574	1.1532	1.1575
NZD/USD	0.5904	0.5913	0.5893	0.5910
AUD/USD	0.7133	0.7161	0.7112	0.7150
USD/JPY	158.7260	159.2330	158.6760	158.8490
USD/CAD	1.3590	1.3604	1.3577	1.3582
EUR/JPY	183.4410	183.9200	183.3440	183.8400
CHF/USD	1.2806	1.2820	1.2774	1.2814
EUR/CHF	0.9024	0.9040	0.9019	0.9025

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar held firm on Thursday, bolstered by rising crude oil prices. Brent crude for May delivery topped $100 a barrel in Asian trade Thursday, jumping from $90.31 a barrel at 1700 IST Wednesday, the end of Indian market hours. At 1626 IST, the dollar index was at 99.35, compared to 99.25 Wednesday and 98.91 Tuesday. 

 

Crude prices have shot up again after Iran's Revolutionary Guards attacked several oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran warned that oil prices could hit $200 per barrel, saying the world should prepare for this possibility as regional security remains unstable.

 

The euro fell 0.1%, while the pound sterling fell 0.2% against the greenback as investors continued to favour the dollar as a safe-haven asset amid escalating military confrontations in West Asia. US President Donald Trump said Wednesday that Washington was in a "very good position" in its war with Iran and that the US would "pay very close attention to the Strait of Hormuz." Meanwhile, traders the expect European Central Bank to hike interest rate after soaring energy prices which fuelled fears of rise in inflation at next week's meeting or in April.

 

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar amid West Asia tensions, sparking concerns about oil prices and currency stability in Japan. This has put the Bank of Japan's next rate hike back in the spotlight, with some economists expecting it could happen as soon as April. Over a third of surveyed economists think Japan's central bank will likely raise its benchmark interest rate in April.

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.2% against the greenback, while the Canadian dollar remained steady against the US currency. (Vaishali Tyagi)

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India Rupee: Remains weak as importers buy dlrs; RBI said to have sold dlrs

 

	AT 1506 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.1600	92.2750	92.0500	92.3600	92.0400

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained weak against the dollar as banks persistently bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies, dealers said. However, the rupee recovered from the day's low as some state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, they said.

Banks bought dollars for oil marketing companies as the Indian currency came off the day's low, dealers said. "People are buying dollars for crude oil importers at lower levels as they find rupee level lucrative," a dealer at a bank said. "The rupee is likely to be range bound, and if it goes above 92.37, it may fall even more."

 

Brent crude oil futures for May delivery topped $100 a barrel in Asian trade Thursday, jumping from $90.31 a barrel at 1700 IST Wednesday--the end of Indian market hours. At 1439 IST, May futures of Brent Crude oil traded at $97.66 per barrel, up from $91.98 per barrel at close on Wednesday.

 

There are several things building pressure on Indian currency these days, dealers said. The rupee was also pressured by year-end dollar demand from Indian companies to settle overseas payments and due to equity market outflows. The dollar index was near an over four-month high due to safe-haven demand, dealers said.

 

A fall in domestic share indices also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1431 IST, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were down 0.7?ch.

 

Dealers said the RBI is intervening in the market but not very aggressively. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.70 and 92.20 against the greenback. (Vaishali Tyagi)

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India Rupee: Premiums steady; importers' fwd dlr buys offset rise in US ylds

 

	AT 1230 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.3350	92.2750	92.2750	92.3600	92.0400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	267.57	271.89	277.21	267.57	268.23

 

MUMBAI – The dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady Thursday as a rise in US Treasury yields was offset by importers' forward dollar purchases, dealers said. Forward premiums were firm near the two-month high of 2.93% touched Monday.

 

"Oilers are paying but there is pressure from the rise in UST (US Treasury Yield)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Premiums would have fallen more if the rupee was stable." The rupee fell to a record low of 92.3600 a dollar in the spot market early Thursday before the Reserve Bank of India stepped in with dollar sales to prevent runaway depreciation. 

 

The 10-year US Treasury yield hit an over one-month high of 4.24% Wednesday as concerns over an extension of the West Asia crisis pushed back hopes of rate cuts amid inflationary fears. Data released Wednesday showed retail inflation for February accelerated to 0.3% on month from a 0.2% increase in January. The annualised reading of headline inflation, at 2.5%, and core CPI inflation, at 2.4%, were in line with consensus estimates.

 

At 1229 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.90%, unchanged from Wednesday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 267.57 paise, against 268.23 paise Wednesday. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 12

 

MUMBAI – At 1129 IST, the rupee was at 92.3500 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.2850 a dollar, against the previous close of 92.0400 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.50	92.40	92.20	92.00
Private-sector bank	92.54	92.37	92.25	92.10
Private-sector bank	92.45	92.36	92.13	92.10
Private-sector bank	92.50	92.40	92.25	92.20
Brokerage firm	92.45	92.32	92.08	91.80
Brokerage firm	93.00	92.50	91.90	91.50

 

(Kabir Sharma, Divya Moolayattil and Suryash Kumar)

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India Rupee: Slumps as oil prices surge; record low averted on RBI dlr sales

 

	AT 0958 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.3000	92.2750	92.2750	92.3450	92.0400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	273.21	271.89	273.21	270.93	268.23

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was sharply lower against the dollar Thursday tracking a sharp rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. However, some state-owned banks sold the greenback, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which prevented the rupee from falling to a record low against the dollar. 

 

"They (RBI) are selling near 33-34 (92.33-92.34), although not so aggressively," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Oil prices are so volatile that people are buying at any level."  

 

Just a few minutes into the session, the Indian unit fell to 92.3450 a dollar, a whisker away from the record low of 92.3550 a dollar. 

 

Brent crude for May delivery topped $100 a barrel in Asian trade Thursday, jumping from $90.31 a barrel at 1700 IST Wednesday, the end of Indian market hours. Oil prices have been volatile and were reacting to Iran's reported attack on two foreign oil tankers in a port in Iraq.

 

Banks bought the greenback for foreign fund outflows from Indian equities, which also weighed on the local unit, dealers said. At 1001 IST, the benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.8?ch. 

 

The dollar index was near an over four-month high due to safe-haven demand, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1002 IST, the dollar index was at 99.47, compared to 99.25 Wednesday and 98.91 Monday. The index touched a near four-month high of 99.70 on Monday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.00 and 92.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.35 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

 

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Down as dlr revisits 4-mo-high level; peso most hit

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar Thursday because the dollar index neared a four-month high on the back of safe haven demand as the conflict in West Asia escalated. At 0839 IST, the dollar index was at 99.48, compared to 99.25 Wednesday. The index had touched a high of 99.70 on Monday. 

 

Asian currencies were hit as oil prices surged over 7% on Thursday, weighing on the import-dependent economies. Iranian military officials said the world should be ready for oil at $200 a barrel as it attacked three ships trying to transit the Strait of Hormuz, including two in Iraq's territorial waters. 

 

The South Korean won fell 0.3% against the dollar. It weakened again in line with rising global oil prices as Iran effectively halted cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The currency had risen over the previous two sessions, rebounding from a 17-year low. 

 

The Philippines peso, worst hit among the lot, fell 0.7% against the greenback and moved back to the 59 a dollar level as investors sought safety amid geopolitical risks in West Asia. For the Philippines — a heavy fuel importer — higher crude costs threaten to widen the import bill, factors that tend to pressure the peso and stoke inflation. 

 

The Thai baht was down 0.5% against the greenback. In contrast to its peers, the baht has been struggling with recent appreciation in the currency. While a stronger currency can reflect confidence in Thailand's economic stability, it is increasingly viewed as a challenge for tourism cities where foreign spending plays a central role in the local economy. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 12

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.45	91.95
State-owned bank	92.40	92.00
Private-sector bank	92.50	92.00
Private-sector bank	92.35	91.95
Foreign bank	92.40	91.90
Brokerage firm	92.32	92.08

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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