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Informist, Monday, Mar. 9, 2026

 

By Shubham Rana

 

NEW DELHI – India's retail inflation, based on the new Consumer Price Index, likely rose in February because of the statistical effect of an unfavourable base, economists said. According to an Informist Poll of 13 economists, CPI inflation is expected to 3.1% in February from 2.75% in January.

 

Retail inflation in February 2025 was 3.61%, based on the old CPI series with 2012 as the base year. The statistics ministry will release inflation data for February at 1600 IST Thursday, based on the new CPI series with 2024 as the base year. Last month, the statistics ministry released the new CPI series, marking the first revision of the key indicator in 11 years. The new series tracks prices of 358 items, up from 299 items in the old series.

 

The base effect in February is such that if the general index remains unchanged from January, CPI inflation would rise to 3.2%. The general index had declined 0.4% on month in February 2025, according to the new CPI series. An inflation rate of 3.1% in February would translate to a 0.1?ll in the general index from January, the first sequential decline in the index in a year.

 

The sequential fall in the general index in February is likely because of lower vegetable prices. According to data from the Department of Consumer Affairs, retail tomato prices declined 29% on month in February. Potato and onion prices fell 6% and 4%, respectively, from January. 

 

Food inflation is expected to be higher in February from 2.13% in January due to a low base effect. A sequential rise in the prices of edible oils, some pulses, and cereals could also push food inflation higher.

 

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and fuel items, in February is seen staying around January's print of 3.4%, according to the poll. "Core inflation, especially excluding precious metal prices, is expected to remain subdued," Dhiraj Nim, economist at ANZ Banking Group, said in a note.

 

"CPI inflation in the new series is rising faster than expected compared to the old series, but that has partly to do with unexpectedly high precious metal prices, apart from the differences in the weighting of individual items," Nim said. "The elevated oil price due to the ongoing Middle East (West Asia) conflict is another source of upside risk to inflation, although the duration and intensity of the conflict will matter."

 

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman Monday said high crude oil prices are unlikely to have a substantial impact on India's inflation at this point, as the CPI print is near the lower bound of the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band of 2-6%. Based on the old CPI series, the RBI has projected retail inflation to average 3.2% in the March quarter and then rise to 4.2% by the September quarter.

 

The following is a summary of the poll on CPI inflation in February, in ascending order:

 

ORGANISATION	CPI INFLATION ESTIMATE
CareEdge Ratings	3.0%
Emkay Global Financial  Services	3.0%
Moody's Analytics	3.0%
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership	3.0%
Standard Chartered Bank	3.0%
Capital Economics	3.1%
HDFC Bank	3.1%
ICICI Bank	3.12%
Kotak Mahindra Bank	3.14%
India Ratings and Research	3.2%
ICRA	3.2%
Sunidhi Securities	3.23%
ANZ Banking Group	3.30%

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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