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Informist, Monday, Mar. 9, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended at a record closing low against the dollar on the back of a surge in crude oil prices earlier in the session, which led to a spurt of dollar demand from oil marketing companies, dealers said. Banks' dollar purchases for foreign fund outflows from Indian equities also weighed on the local unit, they said. However, dollar sales from banks on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India limited the losses in the Indian unit, dealers said.

 

"Geopolitical risks persist with no resolution in sight, so crude is bound to remain on the higher side, and as long as that is near $100 (a barrel), the dollar will remain well bid," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.  

 

Dealers said the central bank likely sold $1 billion to $2 billion in the spot and forwards market on Monday. The RBI had sold around $11 billion to $12 billion in the currency market last week, according to dealers.  

 

After touching a record low of 92.3550, the rupee settled at 92.3275 a dollar on Monday, lower than its previous close of 91.7400. Other Asian currencies fell 0.3-1.0% against the greenback, with the Thai Baht and the Philippine peso falling the most. 

 

The Indian unit started the day sharply lower against the greenback and fell to a record low shortly after opening as crude oil prices surged 20% over the weekend and touched a near four-year high of $120 a barrel. 

 

The near-month Brent crude oil futures surged to the highest level since 2022, after Israel bombed some of Iran's oil storage facilities over the weekend in an escalation of the war in West Asia. The US's attack on a desalination plant also raised threats to civilian infrastructure in the region amid the intensifying conflict.

 

However, later in the day, oil prices eased as the Financial Times reported that finance ministers of G7 countries are planning to discuss releasing emergency oil reserves, after the conflict in West Asia sent prices soaring. At 1558 IST, Brent crude oil May futures traded at $104.74 per barrel, up sharply from $92.69 per barrel at close on Friday.

 

The dollar index surged to an over four-month high due to safe-haven demand, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 0943 IST, the dollar index was at 99.59, up from 98.89 Friday and 99.06 Thursday. 

 

Banks bought dollars for foreign portfolio investors looking to exit Indian equities amid worsening risk sentiment, which weighed on the local currency, dealers said. Benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.7% lower each. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.3275	92.1975	92.1550	92.3550	91.7400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	270.82	269.16	271.55	262.47	249.93

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged to an over two-month high of 2.93% Monday as oil marketing companies and other importers rushed to purchase forward dollars after the rupee's sharp fall in the spot market, dealers said. 

 

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India intervened in the forwards market and some state-owned banks sold forward dollars on behalf of the central bank, limiting the rise in premiums. 

 

Premiums rose despite an increase in US Treasury yields on Friday, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Friday as investors assessed the potential effect of rising crude oil prices on inflation.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.93%, sharply higher than Friday's close of 2.73%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 270.82 paise, sharply up from 249.93 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movements in crude oil prices due to the evolving situation in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement in the dollar index. The RBI's intervention strategy will also be in focus, dealers said.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene by selling dollars and prevent the rupee from depreciating sharply. Some expect the central bank to ramp up its intervention if the Indian currency inches closer to the record low.

 

The rupee is likely to move in the 92.00-92.50 range against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.35.

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India Rupee:Remains near record low on firm dlr demand by oil cos, importers

 

	AT 1449 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.3300	92.1975	92.1550	92.3550	91.7400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	270.05	269.16	270.17	262.47	249.93

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained near its record low of 82.3425 against the dollar touched earlier in the day, as banks persisently bought the greenback on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. However, some state-owned banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the rupee, they said. 

 

"They are stocking up as much as possible specially as prices (of crude) have eased a little bit," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Oil prices eased from four-year highs as a report in the Financial Times said finance ministers of G7 countries are planning to discuss the release of emergency oil reserves, after the conflict in West Asia sent prices soaring to $120 a barrel. At 1440 IST, Brent crude oil May futures traded at $106.51 per barrel, up sharply from $92.69 per barrel at close on Friday. However, prices eased from the high of $120 a barrel touched earlier in the session. 

 

Some banks bought the greenback for foreign funds who were exiting Indian equities, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said.  

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.00 and 92.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.40 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee:Premium up; record low rupee prompts importers to stock fwd dlrs

 

	AT 1307 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.2650	92.1975	92.1550	92.3425	91.7400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	266.82	269.16	270.17	262.47	249.93

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged to an over two-month high of 2.89% Monday as oil marketing companies and other importers rushed to purchase forward dollars after a sharp fall of the rupee in the spot market, dealers said.  

 

"This kind of volatility is unforeseen and unexpected, however, it has provided liquidity in the market for hedgers and so people are paying (premiums) at high levels as well because no one is certain where it will go from here," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The Indian unit touched a record low of 82.3425 against the dollar in the spot market Monday as crude oil prices surged to near four-year highs due to the conflict in West Asia. At 1302 IST, Brent Crude oil May futures traded at $119.40 per barrel, up sharply from $92.69 per barrel at close on Friday. 

 

Some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of Indian intervened in the spot market by way of dollar sales and also in the forwards market by receiving premiums. A prolonged crisis in West Asia could have material implications for the rupee's exchange rate and the country's current account deficit and may also stoke inflationary pressures, the finance ministry said Friday. 

 

Premiums rose despite an increase in US Treasury yields on Friday, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose on Friday as investors evaluated the potential effect on inflation from rising crude oil prices linked to the conflict in West Asia.

 

At 1304 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.89%, sharply higher than Friday's close of 2.72%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 266.82 paise, against 249.93 paise Friday. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 9

 

MUMBAI – At 1134 IST, the rupee was at 92.2325 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 92.1925 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.7400 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.50	92.40	92.00	91.50
Private-sector bank	92.50	92.35	91.90	91.40
Brokerage firm	92.40	92.38	91.78	91.50
Brokerage firm	92.50	92.40	91.80	91.40

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee:At record low as crude touches near 4-yr high; FX outflows weigh

 

	AT 1002 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	92.3000	92.1975	92.1575	92.3425	91.7400
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	269.52	269.16	269.52	263.36	249.93

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell to a record low against the dollar as crude oil prices surged to a four-year high due to an escalation in the West Asia conflict, leading to panic buying of dollars, dealers said. The Indian unit fell to a record low of 92.3425 against the dollar in early trade Monday. 

 

"This is uncharted territory for all of us, crude is expected to rise even more so expect the pressure on rupee to continue," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It (dollar/rupee) has scope to shoot up further today (Monday)." 

 

The near-month Brent crude oil futures surged to its highest level since 2022, after Israel bombed some of Iran's oil storage facilities over the weekend in an escalation of the war in West Asia. The US' attack on a desalination plant also raised threats to civilian infrastructure in the region amid the intensifying conflict.

 

The sharp increase in crude prices prompted oil marketing companies to stock up on the greenback, which also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. At 0942 IST, Brent Crude oil May futures traded at $115.54 per barrel, up sharply from $92.69 per barrel at close on Friday. 

 

The dollar index surged to an over four-month high on the back of safe haven demand, which also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 0943 IST, the dollar index was at 99.59, up from 98.89 Friday and 99.06 Thursday. 

 

Banks bought dollars for foreign portfolio investors looking to exit Indian equities amid worsening risk sentiment, which weighed on the local curreny, dealers said. Some dealers speculated that some state-owned banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the Indian unit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 92.00 and 92.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.40 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX:Most dn; Philippines peso at record low as crude jumps

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell sharply against the dollar Monday as crude oil near-month futures surged to near four-year high on Monday, driven by an escalation in the conflict in West Asia. Emerging economies depend on crude imports, making their currencies highly sensitive to change in prices of the commodity. Brent crude for May delivery surged 29% in Asian trade Monday to $119.50 per barrel, hitting its highest since Jun. 29, 2022.

 

The near-month Brent crude oil futures surged to near four-year high after Israel bombed some of Iran's oil storage facilities over the weekend in an escalation of the war in West Asia. The US' attack on a desalination plant also raised threats to civilian infrastructure in the region amid the intensifying conflict.

 

The Philippine peso was down over 1% against the dollar and sank to a new record low in early trading on Monday as the conflict in West Asia pushed global energy prices higher and fueled a flight to safe-haven assets.

 

The South Korean won fell around 1% against the dollar to its weakest level since early 2009. The sharp rise in crude oil intensified pressure on the won, given South Korea's heavy reliance on imported energy, which heightens concerns about rising import costs, inflation, and a potential deterioration in the country's trade balance.

 

The dollar index also surged to an over four-month high on the back of safe haven demand, which may also weigh on the regional currencies. At 0928 IST, the dollar index was at 99.64, up from 98.89 Friday and 99.06 Thursday.

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 9

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.50	91.80
State-owned bank	92.40	91.75
Private-sector bank	92.45	91.85
Private-sector bank	92.50	91.50
Foreign bank	92.30	91.90
Brokerage firm	92.50	92.00
Brokerage firm	92.30	91.70
Brokerage firm	92.50	91.60

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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