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Informist, Friday, Mar. 6, 2026

By Arya S. Biju 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to continue their downward trend in the coming week amid widening geopolitical tensions, a weak rupee, and persistent outflow of foreign institutional funds. Market volatility is also expected to remain elevated until clarity arises on how long the military conflict in West Asis will last, analysts said. 

After a rebound in the previous session, headline equity indices closed sharply lower Friday, as crude oil prices rose amid an escalation in the conflict. On Friday, the May Brent crude futures contract rose above the $89 per barrel level, the highest since April 2024. Oil prices have been rising sharply since the US and Israel jointly attacked Iran Saturday. So far, the May Brent Crude futures contract has risen by over 23% since the regional conflict began.

Crude oil prices are expected to continue rising for most of March, according to an Informist poll. Unless there is a resolution to the military conflict, supply issues due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will persist, they said. "If the crude prices remain around the present levels, $84-$87 (per barrel) levels, not much harm will be done. But if it goes above $90 and $95 (per barrel), once that happens, it can even go to $100 (per barrel), then there will be a huge impact on the (equity) market," V K Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. "Globally, markets will react very, very strongly. It can crash. It can be a big crash," he added.  

The conflict between Iran and the US-Israel combine entered its seventh day Friday, with Iran and Israel launching fresh strikes at each other. In the latest in the series, Israel has launched strikes in the southern suburbs of Beirut and Iran's capital, Tehran. Iran's Revolutionary Guards also launched a wave of drones and missiles at targets in Tel Aviv Friday, according to a report by IRNA, Iran's state news agency.

Post-market hours Friday, Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a post on 'X' that some countries have begun mediation efforts to end the war with the US and Israel, but any talks should address those who started the war. "Let's be clear: we are committed to lasting peace in the region, yet we have no hesitation in defending our nation's dignity & sovereignty," Pezeshkian said in the post.  

In a relief to India, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday the US will issue a 30-day waiver to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian oil. However, the waiver is short-term relief and is not expected to compensate for the loss of supply due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, analysts said. Indian refiners will also face competition from Chinese counterparts to secure Russian crude oil cargoes stranded at sea, they said.

Further, the Indian rupee is expected to remain under pressure with rising crude oil prices. "With crude remaining firm, the rupee could continue to face downside pressure in the near term," Jateen Trivedi, vice president of commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. Friday, the Indian unit settled at 91.74 a dollar, lower than its previous close of 91.60. The rupee is expected to trade within the INR 91.25 to INR 92.50 per dollar range with commodity prices and dollar index movements remaining the key drivers, Trivedi said. 

Friday, the Nifty 50 closed at 24450.45 points, down 315.45 points or 1.3%. The BSE Sensex ended at 78918.90 points, down 1097 points or 1.4%

In the near term, technical analysts expect the Nifty 50 index to decline further if it moves below the 24300 points level. A fall below this week's low of 24305 points can lead to extension of the decline towards the major support area of 24000-23800 points," Bajaj Broking said in a note. On the higher side, resistance for the 50-stock index is placed at 25000–25600 points, technical analysts said. Amol Athawale, Vice President of technical research at Kotak Securities, however, has placed his immediate resistance for the Nifty 50 at 24500 points, just 50 points away from Friday's closing level of 24450.45 points. "If the market succeeds in trading above 24500 (points), then the pullback move could continue till 24800-24850," Athawale said.  End

US$1 = INR 91.74

Edited by Saji George Titus

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