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Informist, Friday, Mar. 6, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar Friday as crude oil prices surged on reports that Bahrain's largest oil refinery was struck by Iranian missiles, triggering fresh concerns over disruption in the global oil market, dealers said. However, dealers said some state-owned banks sold the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited the fall of the Indian currency.

 

"Oil is in the driving seat as supply has become a major concern with bombs dropping all over refineries," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "They (RBI) held on to it otherwise it (rupee) would have gone to 92 again," he said.

 

Dealers said the central bank likely sold $11 billion to $12 billion in the spot and forwards market this week.

 

The rupee settled at 91.7400 a dollar on Friday, lower than its previous close of 91.6000. Other Asian currencies fell 0.3-1.0% against the greenback, with the Thai Baht and Philippines peso falling the most.

 

Crude oil prices have risen nearly 20% this week, putting them on course for the biggest weekly increase since February 2022. The escalation in conflict between US-Israel and Iran has resulted in disruption of supply of oil and gas through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher.

 

The rupee was steady against the dollar in early hours of trade as oil futures fell after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a stop-gap measure to ease pressure caused by what he called Iran's attempt to "take global energy hostage". Bessent said the US Treasury Department is issuing a temporary waiver to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian oil. He added that the measure doesn't provide significant financial benefit to Russia as it applies only to oil stranded at sea.

 

However, oil prices recovered during the European session as the disruption in supply because of the conflict remained in focus, dealers said. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC that the country has not asked for a ceasefire, rejecting negotiations with the US. Tehran has also warned that the US will "bitterly regret" the attack on an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean.

 

Dollar purchases by banks driven by outflows from Indian equities also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. The benchmark Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.3% and 1.4% lower, respectively.

 

The dollar eased from an over four-month high in early trade before recovering and rising again as the European markets opened. The dollar index was at 99.22 against a basket of currencies at 1603 IST. The index had closed at 99.06 Thursday and 98.78 Wednesday. Friday marks the highest weekly gain for the dollar index in over a year.

 

Oil marketing companies continued to stock up on dollars as the levels on Friday were better than the record low touched on Wednesday, dealers said. This too weighed on the Indian currency, dealers said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.7400	91.6500	91.5875	91.7600	91.6000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	249.93	241.07	249.93	241.07	242.57

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose on Friday as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers who were looking to book the greenback at attractive levels, dealers said.

 

Late Thursday, premiums fell to their lowest level and remained around the same levels Friday as exporters sold dollars for forward delivery after aggressive intervention by the RBI in the spot market, dealers said. Dealers speculated that the RBI also sold forward dollars, which also weighed on the premiums.

 

A rise in US Treasury yields weighed on premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.13%, as concerns about inflation persisted, with yields climbing in line with crude oil prices. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said the focus could shift to sticky inflation if the US jobs market remained stable amid the lengthening West Asia conflict.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.73%, higher than Thursday's close of 2.65%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 249.93 paise, against 242.57 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of crude oil prices in view of the evolving situation in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit may also track the movement of the dollar index. The RBI's intervention strategy will also be in focus, dealers said.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene through dollar sales and prevent the rupee from depreciating sharply. Some expect the central bank to ramp up its intervention if the Indian currency inches close to 92.00 a dollar.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.40-92.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 92.00.

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India Rupee: In thin band; importers' dollar purchases offset fall in crude

 

	AT 1426 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.6750	91.6500	91.5875	91.6850	91.6000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	247.21	241.79	247.93	241.71	242.57

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was in a narrow range against the dollar as the impact of a fall in crude oil prices was offset by banks' dollar purchases for importers, dealers said. Some dealers speculated that state-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India to prevent a fall in the Indian unit. 

 

"Pressure from importers is there, but they (RBI) are present at these levels too," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. Dealers said importers stocked up on the Indian unit as current levels seemed reasonable after the rupee fell to record lows on Wednesday. 

 

Market participants remained cautious of developments in the West Asia conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC that Iran had not asked for a ceasefire, rejecting negotiations with the US. Tehran also warned that the US would "bitterly regret" the attack on an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean. 

 

Banks' dollar purchases driven by outflows from Indian equities also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. The dollar eased from an over four-month high hit on Thursday and was at 98.95 against a basket of currencies at 1427 IST, supporting the local unit. The index closed at 99.06 Thursday and 98.78 Wednesday. Friday marks the highest weekly gain for the dollar index in over a year.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.50 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy fwd dlrs citing attractive levels

 

	AT 1331 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.6800	91.6500	91.5875	91.6850	91.6000
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	245.71	241.79	247.43	241.71	242.57

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose on Friday as banks bought forward dollars on behalf of importers who were looking to book the greenback at attractive levels, dealers said. 

 

"These levels we are getting first time after the conflict started and they seem good, so we are booking as much as we can," a dealer at a private bank said. 

 

Late Thursday, premiums fell to their lowest level this and remained around the same levels Friday as exporters sold dollars for forward delivery after aggressive intervention by the RBI in the spot market, dealers said. Dealers speculated that the RBI also sold forward dollars, which also weighed on the premiums. 

 

A rise in US Treasury yields weighed on premiums, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.13%, as inflation concerns persisted, with yields climbing in line with crude oil prices. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the focus could shift to sticky inflation if the US job market remained stable amid the lengthening West Asia conflict.

 

At 1329 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.68%, higher than Thursday's close of 2.65%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 245.71 paise, against 242.57 paise Thursday. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 6

 

MUMBAI – At 1128 IST, the rupee was at 91.6700 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.6500 a dollar, against the previous close of 91.6000 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	92.50	92.00	91.50	91.00
Private-sector bank	92.50	92.00	91.40	91.20
Brokerage firm	92.40	92.10	91.20	91.05
Brokerage firm	92.05	91.80	91.02	90.80

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee:Steady as oil cos' dlr buys offset fall in crude; easing dlr aids

 

	AT 1008 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	91.6425	91.6500	91.5875	91.6600	91.6000

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar Friday as a fall in crude oil prices was offset by banks' dollar buys on behalf of oil marketing companies, dealers said. "Oilers are stocking up as dollar is relatively cheaper now," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "These are good levels before they get shipments from Russia."

 

Oil futures fell in early trade after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent unveiled a stop-gap measure to ease pressure caused by what he calls Iran's attempt to "take global energy hostage". Bessent said the US Treasury Department is issuing a temporary waiver to allow Indian refiners to buy Russian oil. He added that the measure doesn't provide significant financial benefit to Russia as it applies only to oil stranded at sea.

 

However, market participants remained cautious of developments in the West Asia conflict. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC that Iran has not asked for a ceasefire, rejecting negotiations with the US. Tehran has also warned that the US will "bitterly regret" the attack on an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean. 

 

Banks' dollar purchases driven by outflows from Indian equities also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. The dollar eased from an over four-month high hit on Thursday and was at 98.95 against a basket of currencies at 1006 IST, supporting the local unit. The index closed at 99.06 Thursday and 98.78 Wednesday. Friday marks the highest weekly gain for the dollar index in over a year. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.50 and 92.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 92.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Thai baht rises as govt tops revenue target

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies traded mixed against the dollar Friday as investors remained watchful of developments West Asia. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC News that Tehran had not asked the US for a ceasefire and had no intention of negotiating, highlighting that the US-Israel attacks began during negotiations for a nuclear deal between the two countries. 

 

The heavily import-dependent Philippine peso continued to slide against the greenback amid the prolonged conflict due to its impact on oil prices. On Friday, the peso was the worst hit and was down 0.5% against the dollar. 

 

The Thai Baht rose 0.5% against the dollar. The Thailand government's revenue exceeded projections, driven by higher fuel tax receipts and additional income from state enterprises, the Bangkok Post reported. Net government revenue from Oct. 1 to Jan. 31 reached 868.6 billion baht, surpassing the target by 9.56 billion baht, or 1.1%. The figure also marked a 4.7% increase, or 39.3 billion baht, from the same period a year earlier.

 

The Singapore dollar rose 0.2% against the greenback. The Monetary Authority of Singapore Friday said it will continue to closely monitor economic and financial developments and is in an appropriate position to adjust its monetary policy stance to ensure medium-term price stability.

 

The Australian dollar fell 0.4% against the dollar. The Australian currency was on track for its first weekly decline since mid-January, as global risk sentiment worsened amid escalating tensions in West Asia. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 6

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	92.00	91.50
State-owned bank	91.85	91.35
Private-sector bank	91.90	91.40
Private-sector bank	92.00	91.40
Foreign bank	91.80	91.40
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.40
Brokerage firm	91.85	91.45
Brokerage firm	91.97	91.37

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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