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Informist, Thursday, Mar. 5, 2026

 

By Arya S. Biju

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark equity indices are expected to be volatile in the coming sessions as sentiment remains negative despite the rebound seen Thursday. While some analysts expect the indices to rise more after Thursday's rebound, the upside is likely to be limited with selling pressure seen at higher levels. On the other hand, some expect the market to dip further before a meaningful recovery. 

 

Analysts expect the market volatility to continue amid the ongoing tensions in West Asia. "Till the time we see some kind of positive commentary or ceasefire, the market will continue to see some volatility depending on the evolving show," the head of research at a global brokerage said. Going ahead, markets will closely monitor developments in West Asia, movements in global energy prices and broader global risk sentiment for further directional cues. 

 

After seeing a sharp jump due to rising fears of prolonged disruption at the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit route that accounts for nearly 20% of global crude oil and gas flows, oil prices stayed around $82-$84 per barrel Thursday. At 1752 IST, the May crude oil futures contract was at $83.66 per barrel, up nearly 3% from Wednesday's close. Before the war broke out, the crude oil futures contract was around $72 per barrel. 

However, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining shut, oil prices are still at the risk of rising more, according to analysts. A sustained rise in oil prices for a longer period could considerably impact the margins of Indian oil marketing companies and lead to revisions in earnings estimates. "If crude prices continue to rise from the current level of $82/barrel and remains at high level of close to $100/barrel over the month or so, then it will provide significant pressure on the margins of the paint companies (including Asian Paints)," ICICI Direct Research said in a report. 

 

Thursday, headline equity indices closed higher after falling for two straight sessions since the US-Iran conflict broke out Saturday. The indices saw a sharp rise in the final hour of trade after media reports said Iran had made a conditional offer to the US to abandon its nuclear programme. While they came slightly off highs after Iran clarified that the offer to end its nuclear programme was related to its earlier talks with the US, the indices still closed over 1% higher. 

 

Adding to the positive momentum, US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau Thursday said a trade deal between the US and India was "close to the finish line" and could unlock significant economic potential for both countries. This comes after both countries agreed upon an interim agreement in February. 

 

On Friday, the 50-stock index is seen finding support at 24600-24300 levels and resistance at 24900-25200 levels, according to technical analysts. If Nifty 50 index stays above Wednesday's panic low of around 24300 points level, it will likely extend its pullback towards 25100-25200 in the coming sessions, Bajaj Broking said in a note. However, follow-through weakness below the 24300 points level could drag the index down to 24200-24000 levels, the brokerage said.  End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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