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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 4, 2026

 

By Afra Abubacker

 

NEW DELHI – Gold prices are likely to remain range-bound in March, though volatility may persist as the escalating military conflict in West Asia boosts safe-haven demand for the metal. Analysts say gold prices may struggle to surpass the record highs seen earlier this year, as a strong dollar and tighter global liquidity conditions are likely to limit the upside for the yellow metal.

 

As per the median of estimates from seven broking firms polled by Informist, the April gold futures contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India is expected to be in a range of INR 157,000-INR 169,500 per 10 grams in March. On COMEX, gold prices are seen in a range of $4,950 per ounce to $5,415 per ounce during the month. At the time of writing this report, the April contract was up 0.7% at $5,160.1 per ounce on COMEX. It had hit a record high of $5,604.9 per ounce on Jan. 29

 

While geopolitical conflicts typically create a risk premium for gold, the metal has recently seen some bouts of selling as investors raised cash, reflecting liquidity crunch. In addition, the US Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer. Rising crude oil prices amid attacks on Iran and the broader West Asia could add to inflationary pressures, potentially delaying rate cuts and strengthening the dollar, which could dim gold's appeal.  

 

"Threats to shipping routes and energy supplies have lifted oil prices and inflation expectations, reinforcing gold's role as a hedge. At the same time, concerns over delayed global rate cuts and slowing growth have encouraged defensive positioning (in gold)," Pankaj Singh, smallcase manager, founder and principal researcher, SmartWealth AI, said. 

 

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% at its January meeting, and more than 97% of traders expect no rate cut in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who has been an advocate for lower rates, recently said policymakers should "look through" tariff-related inflationary pressures. He added that recent data shows the labour market may be in better shape than previously indicated, reducing the need for further rate cuts. 

 

"Gold also came under pressure from a deepening sell-off in equity markets, which forced some investors to liquidate positions in gold to meet margin calls," Daniel Hynes, senior commodity strategist at ANZ Research, said in a note.

 

As a result, analysts broadly expect gold prices to be largely range-bound in March. However, they say that forecasting gold prices is tricky right now, as geopolitical developments could take unpredictable turns. If the war in West Asia worsens significantly, gold prices could move to $5,800 per ounce, Jateen Trivedi, research analyst at LKP Securities, said.

 

"On the upside, gold could repeatedly test $5,400-$5,500 levels," Trivedi said, adding that it culd also break to $4,700-$4,600 levels if the critical level of $5,000 is decisively broken. 

 

On the domestic front, analysts see gold futures on MCX trading higher due to the rupee's volatility. "Rupee may continue to weaken because of rising crude oil prices. It may potentially move towards $93.00-$93.50 per dollar," Trivedi said. On Wednesday, the Indian unit hit a record low of 92.30 per dollar intra-day. Most analysts see MCX gold prices around INR 155,000-INR 170,000 per 10 grams in March, with some saying INR 180,000 cannot be ruled out in extreme scenarios. 

 

Following are the details of estimates from seven brokerages for gold prices in March, in alphabetical order:

 

Brokerage	COMEX support ($/oz)	COMEX resistance ($/oz)	MCX support (INR/10 gm)	MCX resistance (INR/10 gm)
Kotak Securities	4,900	5,300	155,000	170,000
LKP Securities	5,000	5,500	157,000	170,000
Nirmal Bang	4,850	5,500	150,000	172,000
Reliance Securities	5,000	5,300	160,000	170,000
smallcase	5,200	5,600	158,000	180,000
SMC Global Securities	4,950	5,400	156,000	167,000
Ventura Securities	4,950	5,430	158,000	172,000
Median	4,950	5,415	157,000	169,500

 

End

 

US$1 = INR 92.15

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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