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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 4, 2026

MUMBAI – The 2025-26 La Nina event is close to its end, as the sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean are warming up, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday. A return to neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions is likely in early autumn, and these conditions are likely to persist till at least late autumn, it added. In the Southern Hemisphere, autumn spans from March to June.

Though atmospheric indications such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain consistent with borderline La Nina conditions, oceanic indicators of the event are steadily weakening, the bureau said.  Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean have been warmer than the La Nina threshold of (-)0.80 degrees Celsius, which suggests that a further weakening of La Nina is likely in the coming weeks. As of Sunday, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value was (-)0.67 degrees Celsius. 

Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

As of Sunday, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value was 11.6, above the La Nina threshold of 7, the bureau said. The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparing the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.

The bureau's predictions are consistent with forecasts of other international climate models, which have indicated a general easing of La Nina conditions in the latter part of summer. Some climate models suggest the possibility of development of an El Nino event from June, but this forecast remains uncertain given the long lead time, and the moderate spread in forecasts across models beyond autumn, the bureau said.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole is currently neutral, though its index values are ruling in the positive threshold, the bureau said. As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole Index is 0.69 degrees Celsius, above the positive threshold of 0.40 degrees Celsius. While the index has remained above the positive benchmark for six weeks, other atmospheric indicators do not point to the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. Climate model forecasts expect the index value to drop below the positive threshold by mid-autumn, the bureau said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius for at least eight weeks as typical of a positive index and values below (−)0.4 degrees Celsius for the same duration as typical of a negative index.

Currently, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining below normal across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the India Meteorological Department said. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, along with other climate models, indicate these conditions are expected to gradually weaken during the upcoming season, the Indian weather bureau said. There is also a 60% chance of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions forming in Feb-Apr, it said.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

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