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Informist, Wednesday, Mar. 4, 2026

 

MUMBAI – According to climate model predictions and expert assessments, there is about a 60% chance of El Nino-Southern Oscillation neutral conditions developing in Mar-May, the World Meteorological Organization said in its El Nino-La Nina update for February, released Tuesday. The probability of an El Nino event remains low during the forecast period, but it will gradually increase to 40% by the end of July, the organisation said.

 

La Nina has weakened as of mid-February, with signs of the event declining across the tropical Pacific Ocean, the organisation said. The probability of a La Nina event in Mar-May has decreased to 30%, while that of a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation phase has increased to 60%. Chances of an El Nino event during this period are seen at 10%, the organisation said.

 

The probability of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions will rise to around 70% in Apr-Jun, before easing to 60% in May-Jul, the organisation said. The likelihood of an El Nino event is expected to gradually rise to 30% in Apr-Jun and to 40% in May-Jul, it said.

 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

 

Currently, weak La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures remaining below normal across much of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, the India Meteorological Department said. Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System, along with other climate models, indicate these conditions are expected to gradually weaken during the upcoming season, the Indian weather bureau said. There is also a 60% chance of neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions forming in Feb-Apr, it said.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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