India Rupee Review
Logs worst day in 6 weeks after Israel, US attack Iran
This story was originally published at 17:16 IST on 2 March 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Monday, Mar. 2, 2026
By Pratiksha
NEW DELHI – The rupee ended at a one-month low against the dollar Monday, posting its worst single-day fall in nearly six weeks, as risk appetite among investors was dampened and crude oil prices jumped after Israel and the US launched joint military strikes on Iran over the weekend and Tehran subsequently retaliated, dealers said. However, losses for the Indian unit were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales, they said.
"The price action showed that RBI was active in the market, but it was not aggressive," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Some impact of the conflict was reflected in the market but I think more will be seen going ahead, unless there is signficant de-escalation."
The rupee settled at 91.4700 a dollar on Monday, over 0.5% lower from its previous close of 90.9750. Other Asian currencies fell 0.3-1.3% against the greenback, with the Thai baht and South Korean won being the worst hit.
The Indian currency started the day sharply lower against the dollar, after Israel and the US launched joint military strikes on Iran on Saturday, prompting retaliation from Iran. The joint strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Iran has since retaliated against Israel and struck US military facilities in the Persian Gulf region.
Iran on Sunday shut the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, leading to a jump in crude oil and natural gas prices. A fifth of global crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude oil prices jumped to an over six-week high in early trade. At 1530 IST, the June Brent crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $78.64 per barrel, higher than its previous close of $72.48 and Thursday's $70.75 per barrel. Prices hit a high of $82.37 in early trade. Noting the jump in oil prices, some banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies, which also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said.
A sharp fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. On Monday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.2% and 1.3% lower, respectively.
"Equities were quite negative all day. There is a sense that FPI outflows may start again in a major way," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. FPIs infused funds worth $3.58 billion into Indian markets last month, after recording net outflows in the previous two months.
The dollar index rose as investors flocked to safe haven assets amid the worsening situation in West Asia, which also weighed on the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 98.15, higher than 97.65 Friday and 97.78 Thursday. The index had risen to 98.57 earlier in the day.
Further, banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation of the Indian currency going ahead. However, some traders avoided placing large bets against the Indian unit, as they await further developments on the situation in West Asia, as things may take a sharp turn on either side even overnight. Market participants also kept their positions small as the currency market is closed on Tuesday for Holi.
However, the RBI marked its presence in the spot market since morning, as it intervened through dollar sales to limit excessive depreciation of the rupee, dealers said. The central bank's active intervention ensured that the rupee did not fall past the key support level of 91.50 a dollar.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 91.4700 | 91.2500 | 91.2150 | 91.4800 | 90.9750 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 254.88 | 246.88 | 256.13 | 246.88 | 241.05 |
FORWARDS
The dollar-rupee forward premiums ended higher across all tenures Monday, as banks persistently bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who feared further depreciation of the rupee after Israel and the US launched joint military strikes on Iran over the weekend, dealers said.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79%, sharply higher than Friday's close of 2.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 254.88 paise, against 241.05 paise Friday.
OUTLOOK
The currency market is closed Tuesday for Holi. On Wednesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of crude oil prices in view of the evolving develpments related to hostilities in West Asia, dealers said. The local unit may also track movement in the dollar index.
"While we expect RBI to actively intervene to limit immediate FX volatility, we could see the pair move in a range of 91-93 in the near-term influenced by the degree and extent of how the tensions unfold, particularly in regard to the supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz," economists at HDFC Bank said in a note. "If tensions de-escalate over the coming week with no prolonged supply disruption, USD/INR could quickly move below 91 again."
Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to intervene through dollar sales and prevent sharp depreciation of the rupee. Some expect the central bank to ramp up its intervention if the Indian currency inches closer to the psychologically-crucial 92.00 a dollar level.
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 91.30-91.70 against the dollar on Wednesday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.50.
India Rupee:Premiums up as importers buy fwd dlr on fear rupee may fall more
| AT 1505 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 91.4100 | 91.2500 | 91.2150 | 91.4725 | 90.9750 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 254.38 | 246.88 | 256.13 | 246.88 | 241.05 |
NEW DELHI – The dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across all tenures Monday, as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who fear further depreciation in the rupee after Israel and the US launched joint military strikes on Iran over the weekend, dealers said.
The Indian unit fell 0.5% against the greenback on Monday, hitting a low of 91.4725 a dollar, as risk appetite among investors was dampened and crude oil prices jumped following the developments in West Asia. The joint strikes led to the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Iran has since retaliated against Israel and struck US military facilities around the Persian Gulf region.
"The market is on the paying side completely. Since there is no clarity on what will happen from here, importers are hedging at least near-term," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.
At 1505 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.79%, sharply higher than Friday's close of 2.67%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 254.38 paise, against 241.05 paise Friday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Mar 2
NEW DELHI – At 1100 IST, the rupee was at 91.3750 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 91.2500 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.9750 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| State-owned bank | 91.70 | 91.50 | 91.00 | - |
| Private-sector bank | 91.60 | 91.50 | 91.00 | - |
| Brokerage firm | 92.00 | 91.50 | 90.85 | 90.75 |
| Brokerage firm | 92.00 | 91.80 | 91.00 | 90.80 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee:Slumps as risk appetite hit, oil up after US, Israel attack Iran
| AT 0945 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 91.3400 | 91.2500 | 91.2175 | 91.3425 | 90.9750 |
NEW DELHI – The rupee slumped below the 91-per-dollar mark on Monday as risk appetite among investors was dampened and crude oil prices jumped after Israel and the US launched joint military strikes on Iran over the weekend, leading to risk of an extened conflict in West Asia, dealers said. The Indian currency fell past the 91.00 level for the first time in a month.
The joint strikes killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Iran has since retaliated against Israel and against US military facilities around the Persian Gulf region. Both sides have shown no signs of de-escalation in strikes as of late Sunday. Domestic equities fell sharply on Monday, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex down 0.8?ch, at 0945 IST.
Iran has also shut the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, leading to a jump in crude oil and natural gas prices. A fifth of global crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. At 0945 IST, the June Brent crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $77.11 per barrel, against its previous close of $72.48 and Thursday's $70.75 per barrel. Prices hit a high of $82.37 in early trade.
Meanwhile, some state-owned banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said. "RBI has shown some intent to hold rupee around a point, but I am not sure how long this will sustain," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "I am expecting lots of buying (for dollars) today."
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 91.00 and 91.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.50 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX:Fall as risk appetite hit after US, Israel attack Iran
NEW DELHI – Asian currencies declined against the dollar Monday as increased tensions between Iran and the US over the weekend drove up crude oil prices and dampened risk appetite among investors.
The US and Israel Saturday launched joint military strikes on the Iranian capital, Tehran. The strikes killed the country's supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei. Iran has since retaliated against Israel and against US military facilities around the Persian Gulf region. Both sides have shown no signs of de-escalation in strikes as of late Sunday.
Iran has also shut the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean, triggering a spike in crude oil and natural gas prices. A fifth of global crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. At 0840 IST, the June Brent crude contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was at $76.41 per barrel, against its previous close of $72.48 and Thursday's $70.75 per barrel. Prices hit a high of $82.37 in early trade.
"If meaningful oil price increases are sustained, we think the likes of KRW (South Korean won), INR (Indian rupee), and to some extent PHP (Phillipine peso) are more vulnerable given their linkages to oil imports and also KRW's higher beta nature," MUFG Bank said in a note. "Meanwhile, CNH (Chinese yuan) and MYR (Malaysian ringgit) should be relatively more resilient in an Asian context."
The South Korean won slumped 0.9% against the dollar, the worst hit amongst its peers. The Phillipine peso was down 0.7% against the US unit while the Thai baht was down 0.6%. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Indonesian rupiah were down 0.3% against the dollar while the Chineese yuan was down 0.1%. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Mar 2
NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 91.50 | 91.00 |
| State-owned bank | 91.35 | 91.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.50 | 91.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.50 | 91.00 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.70 | 91.20 |
| Foreign bank | 91.50 | 90.80 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.50 | 91.10 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.29 | 90.99 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.50 | 90.85 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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