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Informist, Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

 

NEW DELHI – The National Statistics Office's second advance estimate of 7.6% GDP growth for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar) implies that the Indian economy will expand by 7.3% in the March quarter. At 7.3%, the GDP growth in Jan-Mar would be the lowest in three quarters, but sharply higher than the Reserve Bank of India's December forecast of 6.5%.

 

The Indian economy grew 6.7% in the Apr-Jun quarter, 8.4% in Jul-Sept and 7.8% in Oct-Dec, according to data released Friday by the statistics office based on the new GDP series. The National Statistics Office released the new GDP series data, with FY23 as the base year, revised from FY12.

 

Speaking to reporters after the release of the data, the government's Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran said the momentum in the economy is good enough to deliver a 7.3% growth in Jan-Mar.

 

With accommodative monetary conditions and benign inflation, GDP is expected to accelerate in the March quarter, said Jahnavi Prabhakar, economist at Bank of Baroda. Growth will be further "supported by a strong boost to consumption spending along with a revival in investment," Prabhakar said in a report. "Overall, we foresee a limited impact of the change in the new series, with no durable bearing on the fiscal ratio. With this, we continue with our forecast of 7-7.5% growth for FY27," Prabhakar said.

 

The size of the Indian economy is estimated to be slightly smaller under the new series than under the FY12 base, according to Aditi Nayar, chief economist at rating agency ICRA. "The SAE (Second Advance Estimate) for FY2026 is 3.3% lower than the FAE (First Advance Estimate) as per the old series. This implies that the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio would be around 15-20 bps (basis points) higher on average during this year as compared to the previous estimates."

 

ICRA currently projects GDP growth of 7.0% for FY27 on the back of favourable developments, including the interim trade deal with the US and improved prospects for domestic investments.  End

 

Reported by Shweta

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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