Data Alert
New GDP series shows Q3 growth at 7.8%, FY26 growth seen 7.6%
This story was originally published at 19:04 IST on 27 February 2026
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--India Oct-Dec new series GDP growth 7.8%
--Informist Poll estimated India Oct-Dec GDP growth at 7.5%
--CONTEXT: Govt releases new series GDP data with FY23 base year
--India Oct-Dec new GDP series GVA growth 7.8%
--India FY26 GDP growth seen 7.6%, as per govt's second advance estimate
--CONTEXT: Govt's first advance estimate pegged India FY26 GDP growth 7.4%
--India FY26 GVA growth seen 7.7%, as per govt's second advance estimate
--India FY26 nominal GDP growth seen 8.6%, as per govt 2nd advance estimate
--India Oct-Dec new GDP series agriculture sector growth 1.4% vs 5.8% yr ago
--India Oct-Dec new GDP series mining sector growth 4.7% vs 13.1% yr ago
--India Oct-Dec new GDP series mfg sector growth 13.3% vs 10.8% yr ago
--India Oct-Dec new GDP series construction sector growth 6.6% vs 6.4% yr ago
--India Oct-Dec new GDP series private consumption growth 8.7% vs 6.0% yr ago
--India Q3 gross fixed capital formation growth 7.8% vs 6.3% yr ago
--India Q3 govt consumption expenditure growth 4.7% vs 7.6% yr ago
--India Oct-Dec new series nominal GDP growth 8.9% vs 10.1% yr ago
--India Apr-Jun new series GDP growth 6.7% vs 7.8% in old series
--India Jul-Sept new series GDP growth 8.4% vs 8.2% in old series
--India Apr-Dec new series GDP growth 7.7% vs 7.1% yr ago
--India Apr-Dec new series nominal GDP growth 8.6% vs 9.8% yr ago
--India Oct-Dec new GDP series services sector growth 9.5% vs 8.2% yr ago
--India FY25 GDP growth raised to 7.1% in new series from 6.5% in old series
--India FY24 GDP growth lowered to 7.2% in new series from 9.2% in old series
NEW DELHI – The Indian economy grew faster than expected in the December quarter with the new GDP series showing growth of 7.8%. Growth in the last quarter of 2025 was driven by private consumption, the services sector, and manufacturing.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday released the new GDP series data with 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) as the base year, replacing FY12. This was the first major overhaul of the country's national accounts in over a decade. An outdated base year was a key criticism of India's national accounts by the International Monetary Fund. The last time India overhauled its GDP series was in 2015 when the base year was changed to FY12 from FY05.
Economists polled by Informist had estimated the December quarter GDP growth at 7.5%. GDP growth was 7.4% in the December quarter of FY25.
GDP growth for FY26 is projected at 7.6%, as per the government's second advance estimates. The first advance estimate had projected FY26 GDP growth at 7.4%. GDP growth for FY25 was revised higher to 7.1% in the new series from 6.5% in the earlier series.
GDP growth in the June quarter was 6.7% as per the new series, sharply lower than the 7.8% growth showed in the old series. The September quarter GDP growth as per the new series was 8.4%, slightly higher than 8.2% in the old series.
The manufacturing sector led the growth in the December quarter, growing at an eight-quarter high of 13.3%. The sector had grown 13.2% in the September quarter and 10.8% in Oct-Dec of 2024.
The services sector grew at a seven-quarter high of 9.5% in the December quarter, higher than 9.3% in the previous quarter and 8.2% in the year-ago quarter. Agriculture sector growth slowed to a eight-quarter low of 1.7% in the December quarter.
Growth in gross value added--which some economists consider a more reliable indicator of economic activity than GDP--also slowed in the December quarter to 7.8% from 8.6% a quarter ago. Economists polled by Informist had projected the gross value added growth for the December quarter at 7.9%.
On the expenditure side, private final consumption expenditure grew 8.7% in the December quarter. Consumption growth in Oct-Dec was higher than 8.0% in the September quarter and 6.0% in the year-ago quarter.
Gross fixed capital formation, which shows investments in the economy, grew 7.8% in the December quarter, slower than 8.4% in Jul-Sept. It had grown 6.3% in the December quarter of 2024.
Nominal GDP growth was at a three-quarter high of 8.9% in the December quarter. For FY26, nominal GDP is seen growing 8.6% in the new series, as per the second advance estimate. The first advance estimate had pegged nominal GDP growth for FY26 at 8.0%, as per the old series. Nominal GDP grew 9.7% in FY25, as per the new series.
The GDP has grown 7.7% in the first nine of FY26, higher than 7.1% in the same period a year ago. With GDP growth for FY26 seen at 7.6%, the implied growth for the March quarter is 7.3%.
The new GDP series shows economic growth remained strong in the December quarter and in Apr-Dec of FY26. Strong headline growth could deter the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee from lowering interest rates further. The panel left the repo rate unchanged at 5.25?rlier in February and is seen keeping rates on hold for the rest of the year.
The following table shows quarterly growth in gross value added at basic prices and GDP for the December quarter and previous quarters based on the new GDP series:
| Oct-Dec | Jul-Sept | Apr-Jun | Jan-Mar | Oct-Dec | Jul-Sept | Apr-Jun | |
| 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2025 | 2024 | 2024 | 2024 | |
| Agriculture | 1.4% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.6% |
| Industry | 9.7% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 5.0% | 9.3% |
| Mining | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 12.9% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 11.9% |
| Manufacturing | 13.3% | 13.2% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 4.9% | 9.4% |
| Power and gas | 1.5% | 3.9% | (-)1.9% | 2.1% | 0.6% | -0.2% | 9.2% |
| Construction | 6.6% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 8.7% |
| Services | 9.5% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% |
| Trade, hotels | 11.0% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| Financial services | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 10.3% |
| Other services | 4.5% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.9% |
| GVA | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.6% |
| GDP | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% |
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation
End
Reported by Shubham Rana
Edited by Tanima Banerjee and Rajeev Pai
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