Econ Survey's FY27 growth view raised to 7.0-7.4% under new GDP series - CEA
This story was originally published at 18:54 IST on 27 February 2026
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--CEA Nageswaran: Private consumption has been resilient
--CONTEXT:CEA comments at press meet on release of GDP data with new base yr
--Momentum in econ good enough to deliver 7.3% growth in Q4
--See better merchandise exports FY27 post trade deal
--Economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum
--Econ Survey's FY27 growth view raised to 7.0-7.4% under new GDP series
--Conditions support sustained econ growth of over 7%
--Nominal GDP to be around 11% FY27
--India's GDP to comfortably cross $4 tln mark in FY27
NEW DELHI – Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran Friday raised the real GDP growth forecast for the financial year 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) to 7.0-7.4% under the new GDP series, from 6.8-7.2% projected in the Economic Survey for FY26. "So what made us raise the range by 20 basis points on either end is the framework agreement (with the US), this will remove uncertainties related to capital flows," he told a press conference on the release of GDP data with FY23 as the base year.
"Although the full year's impact on exports may be felt in FY28, there will be some positive impact in terms of capital formation, which, in turn, will spill over into consumption and that is the rationale," Nageswaran said. The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released the new GDP series data earlier in the day. The earlier series had FY12 as the base year.
According to government data, the Indian economy grew faster than expected in the December quarter with the new GDP series showing growth of 7.8%. Growth in the last quarter of 2025 was driven by private consumption, the services sector, and manufacturing.
India and the US had announced a trade deal earlier this month under which Washington had agreed to cut reciprocal tariffs on Indian goods to 18% and scrap the 25% punitive tariff for New Delhi's energy purchases from Russia. Thursday, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal met US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and US Ambassador to India Sergio Gor and discussed expanding trade and the economic partnership between the two countries. This was the first public meeting of Indian and American officials after talks scheduled for the week on the bilateral trade agreement were postponed. India and the US postponed a scheduled meeting of their chief negotiators after the US Supreme Court last week struck down most of the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump in 2025.
Nageswaran said improved policy certainty resulting from successful trade agreements, including the India-US and India-European Union trade progress, will support exports and capital flows while the economy continues to maintain strong growth momentum supported by broad-based economic activity.
"Favourable supply-side conditions, including robust rabi sowing, comfortable foodgrain stocks, and easing global commodity prices are expected to keep inflation low and stable... Fiscal consolidation on track, with fiscal deficit estimated at 4.5% of GDP for FY26 revised estimate under the new series, without compromising on capex (capital expenditure)," he said.
"We expected, or anticipated, growth rate has to be 7.3% or more in Jan-Mar to be able to achieve the full year GDP growth rate of 7.6%. I think the momentum in the economy is good enough to deliver that 7.3% in the fourth quarter," Nageswaran said.
GDP growth for FY26 is projected at 7.6%, as per the government's second advance estimate. The first advance estimate had projected FY26 GDP growth at 7.4%. GDP growth in the June quarter was 6.7% as per the new series, sharply lower than the 7.8% growth in the old series. The September quarter GDP growth as per the new series was 8.4%, slightly higher than 8.2% in the old series.
The chief economic adviser said private consumption growth has been quite resilient. Rural consumption has been quite strong while urban consumption is recovering on the back of the direct and indirect tax relief during the year.
Nageswaran said that with the real GDP projection having been revised, nominal GDP is expected to be close to 11%. "We will be crossing the $4 trillion mark comfortably in FY27," he said. "The relative ranking will also depend on the growth rates of other countries and the exchange rates as well." End
US$1 = INR 90.97
Reported by Sagar Sen
Edited by Rajeev Pai
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