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Informist, Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – After trading in a tight range throughout the day, the rupee ended lower against the dollar Friday, mirroring a similar movement in domestic equities, dealers said. Dollar purchases by banks in view of maturing non-deliverable forwards contracts and for importers also weighed on the rupee, they said.

 

However, the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention through dollar sales continued to ensure that the Indian unit did not fall past the key 91.00 per dollar mark, they said. "There was practically no movement in rupee. It was just stuck around the same level," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I think 91.00 will break next week, unless there are inflows."

 

After moving in a narrow range of 6 paise during the day, the rupee settled at 90.9750, against 90.9050 on Thursday. The Indian currency was steady this week, thanks to the central bank's active support.

 

The Indian currency started the day slightly lower as risk appetite among investors was dampened after US equities fell overnight due to concerns around valuations of technology companies and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, dealers said.

 

The US and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday over Iran's nuclear programme to avert a conflict after US military build-up in the region. Both the countries plan to resume negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme after consultations in their countries' capitals, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X.

 

Indian equities ended sharply lower Friday as investors sold stocks across sectors amid uncertainty around US tariffs and possible escalation in US-Iran tensions. The Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 1.3% and 1.2% lower, respectively.

 

Further, amid the global uncertainty, banks bought dollars for importers, fearing further depreciation in the Indian unit, which also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Banks also bought the greenback for importers, who wanted to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said.

 

Dollar demand from banks on account of maturing non-deliverable forwards contracts also weighed on the Indian unit. "This week as a whole we saw demand (for dollars) for NDF expiry but next month it should be better," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "RBI made sure there was no impact on rupee from these maturities."

 

State-owned banks continuously sold the greenback, likely on behalf of the central bank, to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key 91.00 level, a trend seen throughout this week, dealers said.

 

The RBI's resolute intervention in the spot market this week led to traders being wary of placing large bets, dealers said. "The market is as quiet as it can be. There's no point taking big positions when you don't know where the market will go from here," a dealer with another state-owned bank said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9750	90.9475	90.9300	90.9850	90.9050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	241.05	241.96	244.18	240.05	241.79

 

FORWARDS

The dollar-rupee forward premiums ended higher across most tenures on Friday due to a fall in US Treasury yields, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.02% Thursday from 4.05% Wednesday.

 

US yields fell as investors are waiting for the release of the producer price index for January on Friday, for further cues on the health of the world's largest economy. Weekly unemployment numbers in the US were broadly in line with expectation.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.67%, slightly higher than Thursday's close of 2.66%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 241.05 paise, against 241.79 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of the dollar index after the US producer price index for January is released on Friday, dealers said. Market participants will keep a close watch on further developments related to US tariffs and tensions between Iran and the US.

 

Dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to continue preventing the Indian unit from falling below the key 91.00 mark. If the domestic currency falls below 91.00, they expect it to decline to 91.50 shortly thereafter.

 

The Indian unit may also find support from India's GDP data for the December quarter, released post market hours. The Indian economy grew faster than expected in the December quarter, with the new GDP series showing growth of 7.8%. Economists polled by Informist had estimated the December quarter GDP growth at 7.5%. In the December quarter of FY25, the GDP growth was 7.4%.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.70-91.20 against the dollar on Monday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.00.

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India Rupee - World FX:Yen steady after Japan fin minister's FX mgmt comment

 

	AT 1445 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3495	1.3509	1.3462	1.3481
EUR/USD	1.1807	1.1822	1.1789	1.1798
NZD/USD	0.5986	0.5995	0.5974	0.5979
AUD/USD	0.7115	0.7132	0.7096	0.7104
USD/JPY	156.1890	156.2050	155.5400	156.1310
USD/CAD	1.3675	1.3687	1.3663	1.3681
EUR/JPY	184.3900	184.4800	183.7110	184.1900
CHF/USD	1.2940	1.2950	1.2903	1.2918
EUR/CHF	0.9124	0.9143	0.9123	0.9131

 

NEW DELHI – The yen was steady against the dollar after Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama Friday indicated increased vigilance over currency moves, telling the country's parliament the government is monitoring the currency's recent fall with a sense of urgency. "We are watching recent movements very closely, with a strong sense of urgency," Katayama said when asked if the yen's depreciation may be hindering wage growth by pushing up import costs, reports said.

 

Further, data released Friday showed the year-on-year rise in Tokyo core consumer inflation slowed to 1.8% in February from 2.0% in January, falling below 2% for the first time since October 2024. 

 

The pound sterling was up 0.1% against the dollar after falling earlier in the day after the UK's ruling Labour Party lost a one-off special district election, raising fresh doubts about Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership. The Green Party won the Gorton and Denton election, with Labour securing third place behind Reform.

 

The euro also rose 0.1?ter data released Friday showed French consumer prices rose more than expected in February. France's harmonised inflation rate, adjusted for comparison with other eurozone countries, was 1.1% year-on-year in February. A Reuters poll of 14 analysts had expected a median rate of 0.7%. 

 

The Australian dollar was up 0.2% against the US currency on growing expectations of more rate hikes by the country's central bank. Australian inflation rose more than expected in January, while core inflation hit the highest in over a year, increasing expectations of another increase in rates. The central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month to 3.85%. 

 

The dollar index was broadly steady amid uncertainty over US tariffs and ahead of the release of the Producer Price Index for January Friday. At 1445 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.70, compared with 97.78 Thursday and 97.64 Wednesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Forward premiums rise as US yields fall; India GDP data awaited

 

	AT 1400 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9500	90.9475	90.9300	90.9650	90.9050
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	242.18	241.96	244.18	241.96	241.79

 

NEW DELHI – The dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures on Friday due to a fall in US Treasury yields, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.02% Thursday from 4.05% Wednesday. US yields fell as investors await the release of the producer price index for January on Friday, for further cues on the health of the world's largest economy. Weekly unemployment numbers in the US were broadly in line with expectation. 

 

Market participants also await the release of the India's GDP data in the new series with base year 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) at 1600 IST. A poll of economists by Informist pegs the December quarter GDP growth at 7.5%. In the old series with base year FY12, the September quarter GDP growth was 8.2%.

 

"There is not much happening in forwards, some paying is there but levels have consolidated," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "GDP data may give some direction on rates, although I am not expecting any surprise." 

 

At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.67%, slightly higher than Thursday's close of 2.66%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 242.18 paise, against 241.79 paise Thursday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: In thin band as RBI dollar sales offset dlr buys for NDF expiry

 

	AT 1220 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9500	90.9475	90.9300	90.9650	90.9050

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee was stuck in a narrow range against the dollar, hovering near the key 91.00-per-dollar mark, as the impact of dollar demand related to maturity of non-deliverable forwards contracts was offset by likely dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The Indian currency has traded in a range of just 4 paise so far on Friday. 

 

Dealers said state-owned banks sold dollars, likely on behalf of the central bank, around 90.96 a dollar to prevent the Indian unit from falling past the key 91.00 level, as has been the case this week. "Market is very dull due to nats (state-owned banks) selling (dollars) constantly to protect the figure (91.00)," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "It has become an everyday thing now. There is nothing new happening."

 

Meanwhile, banks' dollar demand on account of maturing non-deliverable forwards contracts weighed on the Indian unit. Further, some banks also bought the greenback for importers, who wanted to meet their month-end payment requirements, they said. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also exerted downward pressure on the local unit, according to dealers. At 1220 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively.

 

Market participants now await the release of India's GDP data in the new series with base year 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) at 1600 IST. A poll of economists by Informist pegged the December quarter GDP growth at 7.5%. In the old series with base year FY12, the September quarter GDP growth was 8.2%.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.70 and 91.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 27

 

NEW DELHI – At 1040 IST, the rupee was at 90.9625 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.9475 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.9050 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	91.25	91.00	90.70	90.50
Private-sector bank	-	91.10	90.70	-
Foreign bank	91.25	91.00	90.60	-
Brokerage firm	91.60	91.20	90.80	90.60

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Tad dn as risk appetite weak; RBI intervention hopes limit fall

 

	AT 0930 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9500	90.9475	90.9300	90.9575	90.9050

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee fell slightly against the dollar Friday as risk appetite among investors was dampened after US equities fell overnight owing to concerns around technology companies' valuations and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, dealers said. At 0925 IST, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.3?ch.

 

The US and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday over their long-running nuclear dispute to avert a conflict after US President Donald Trump ordered a military build-up in the region. Both the countries plan to resume negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program after consultations in their countries' capitals, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X.

 

However, expectations of intervention through dollar sales by the Reserve Bank of India around the current levels, limited losses for the Indian unit, dealers said. The central bank has been actively selling dollars in the spot market this week to keep the Indian unit from falling past the key 91.00 per dollar mark. In fact, some dealers speculated the RBI may have sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market on Friday, before the opening of the spot market. 

 

"RBI has been selling (dollars) in the market in small lots, and kept levels anchored," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "I am expecting 91.00 to hold today as well. There is no large trigger for it to break today."

 

A fall in other Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Most Asian units fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar on Friday. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.70 and 91.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most units down as risk appetite weak; yuan falls 0.2%

 

NEW DELHI - Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar Friday as risk appetite among investors remained weak, after US equities fell overnight owing to concerns around technology companies' valuations and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

 

The US and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday over their long-running nuclear dispute to avert a conflict after US President Donald Trump ordered a military build-up in the region. Both the countries plan to resume negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program after consultations in their countries' capitals, Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said in a post on X. 

 

A slight rise in the dollar index amid looming uncertainty over US tariffs, also weighed on the Asian units. At 0840 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.77, compared with 97.78 Thursday and 97.64 Wednesday. The index had risen to 97.98 on Thursday.

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.3% against the dollar, the most amongst its peers, while the South Korean won and Chinese yuan were down 0.2%. China's central bank Friday said it will scrap the foreign exchange risk reserves for some forward contracts, in a move that would encourage dollar buying and slow the pace of rapid yuan appreciation, Reuters reported. The announcement came after yuan touched a near three-year high against the dollar on Thursday in onshore trading. 

 

Bucking the trend, the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit were up 0.2% and 0.1% against the dollar, respectively.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 27

 

NEW DELHI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	91.10	90.70
Private-sector bank	91.20	90.85
Private-sector bank	91.10	90.85
Private-sector bank	91.20	90.80
Foreign bank	91.00	90.70
Brokerage firm	91.08	90.78
Brokerage firm	91.25	90.75

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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