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Informist, Friday, Feb. 27, 2026

 

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--MoSPI secy: Plan seasonally adjusted GDP data once adequate data available
--MoSPI secy:Seasonally adjusted GDP feasible after 5 yrs of new series data
--CONTEXT: MoSPI Secretary Saurabh Garg's comments in interview to Informist
--MoSPI secy:To release back-series GDP data till FY12 for new series by Dec
--MoSPI secy: Expect to revise GDP series every 5 years as per global norm
--MoSPI secy: To revise CPI base year after we get consumption survey data
--MoSPI secy: To hold Household Consumption Expenditure Survey every 3 years
--MoSPI secy:Industry dept revising base year of eight core industries index
--MoSPI secy:Mulling services production index for insights into svcs sector
--MoSPI secy: To release seasonally adjusted and chain indexed IIP in May
--MoSPI secy: Expect new WPI series in next few months, PPI thereafter
--MoSPI secy: To replace WPI with PPI for GDP compilation in near future
--MoSPI secy: To conduct survey to estimate GVA, employment for cooperatives
--MoSPI secy: Plan to launch survey on common property resources in 2026
--MoSPI secy: Plan to launch survey on adult skills in 2027
 

 

By Shubham Rana and Sagar Sen

 

NEW DELHI - India's statistics ministry is planning to provide seasonally adjusted GDP data as part of the new series once adequate time series becomes available, the ministry's Secretary Saurabh Garg told Informist in an interview Thursday. This would address one of the key issues highlighted by the International Monetary Fund last year when it assigned a 'C' grade to India's national accounts.

 

The statistics ministry will Friday release the new GDP series data with 2022-23 (Apr-Mar) as the base year in what is the first major overhaul of the country's national accounts in over a decade. An outdated base year was also a key criticism of India's national accounts by the IMF. The last time India overhauled its GDP series was in 2015 when the base year was changed to FY12 from FY05.

 

The seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP estimates may not materialise in the near term. "In the new series, compilation of seasonally adjusted estimates would be feasible after availability of at least five years of consistent quarterly data, or alternatively, if a sufficiently long time series is created through robust back-casting techniques," Garg said.

 

"Once an adequate time series becomes available, it is planned to compile experimental seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP estimates for facilitating examination and validation by the expert committee," Garg said. The ministry is likely to release adjusted GDP estimates once approved by the committee.

 

The Advisory Committee on National Accounts Statistics had suggested the ministry make an effort to compile the seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series during the tenure of the new series.

 

"Macroeconomic time series (data) often exhibit seasonality patterns due to intra-year variations in climatic, social or other behavioural factors," a sub-committee of the ministry had said in a report released earlier this month. To understand the long-run trend cyclic fluctuation in the series, it is imperative to remove the inherent seasonality and calendar effects from the data."

 

India's current practice of publishing unadjusted quarterly GDP numbers along with the year-on-year growth rates may delay the identification of turning points and does not fully exclude the calendar effect and moving seasonality, the panel had said. "Seasonally adjusted series makes it possible to compare the growth rates Q-o-Q (quarter-on-quarter) basis and hence provide a more accurate assessment of current progress in the economy," the panel had said in the report.

 

Friday, the ministry will release GDP data for the December quarter at 1600 IST. India's GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 7.5% in the December quarter from a six-quarter high of 8.2% in the September quarter, according to an Informist Poll.

 

The ministry will also release annual and quarterly estimates of GDP for all years from FY23 to FY26 based on the new series. Garg said back-series data for the new GDP series till FY12 will be available by December. 

 

Below are edited excerpts of the interview:

 

Q. The Advisory Committee on National Account Statistics has suggested that a seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP series be compiled in the new series. Has the ministry started working on this and by when can we expect seasonally adjusted GDP estimates?

A. The ministry has explored the possibility of generating seasonally adjusted GDP series using the X-13 ARIMA model in the existing series. In the new series, compilation of seasonally adjusted estimates would be feasible after availability of at least five years of consistent quarterly data, or alternatively, if a sufficiently long time series is created through robust back-casting techniques. Once an adequate time series becomes available, it is planned to compile experimental seasonally adjusted quarterly GDP estimates for facilitating examination and validation by the expert committee.

 

Q. In the new GDP series, for how many years will the back-series data be provided for? By when can we expect it?

A. Estimates as per new series are scheduled to be released on Feb. 27 (Friday). Back series (data) is expected to be released by December 2026. As per the past practice for calculation of back series in India, estimates are recalculated using revised methodology of the new series till the immediate preceding base and spliced at disaggregated level thereafter till 1950-51.

 

However, the methodology for back series will be finalised in consultation with the advisory committee which has been constituted to advise the ministry on methodological improvements and incorporation of new data sources in compilation of GDP estimates. In view of non-availability of data going backward, (a) judicious mix of back-casting methodology will be applied.

 

Q. Is it safe to assume that by December we will have the back series data for GDP till 2011-12?

A. Yes, I think that is a fair assumption.

 

Q. How often will the ministry look to rebase CPI, IIP, and GDP data going ahead?

A. The ministry plans to institutionalise base revisions at regular intervals. For GDP base revisions, the international norm is approximately every five years, which is expected to be followed, subject to unforeseen circumstances.

 

For CPI, as per global practices, it should be done every three to five years, depending on the availability of Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data. However, in a country as large and diverse as India, this is an extensive and technically rigorous exercise. Accordingly, the next base revision of CPI will be undertaken once the latest Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data becomes available.

 

Q. The ministry is looking to hold Household Consumption Expenditure Survey every three years going ahead. Is three years enough time to see material changes in consumption patterns in the economy?

A. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey is designed to collect information on consumption and expenditure of the households on goods and services. Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data provides critical insights into economic well-being, (it is) also used to update the basket of consumer goods and services and their respective weights used in the calculation of the CPI. The information collected through the survey is also crucial for assessing welfare, poverty, and inequality levels.

 

Additionally, it serves as an essential tool for shaping and evaluating economic and social welfare policies, particularly for different demographic segments. Analysing Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data over time reveals trends in household living standards and consumption behaviour, offering valuable information about the disparities in living conditions across various individuals and groups within the economy.

 

Considering the practices followed in different countries and also keeping in mind the requirement of Household Consumption Expenditure Survey data in India, the ministry has decided to conduct the HCES after every three years. 

 

Q. Is the ministry still using the WPI with 2011-12 base year in calculating GDP estimates in the new series? Is the ministry using the Producer Price Index prepared by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade in the new GDP series?

A. Base year revision of WPI is in progress. Till the WPI with new base becomes available, existing WPI will be used as deflator. It is important to note that the method of use of WPI has undergone change in new series compared to old series. In new series, WPI is used at granular level. Separate item-level WPI for output and intermediate consumption are used in manufacturing sector (data). Adoption of double deflation in manufacturing sector (data) will enable improved measurement of its GVA estimates compared to old series where same WPI was used for both output and input items. Also, use of WPI at item level would obviate changes in the index related to weights used in aggregating across items and sub-categories within manufacturing.

 

Besides, (the) ministry is planning to accommodate Producer Price Index in near future once it is officially released by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade. The government has constituted a working group for base revision of WPI with its Terms of Reference, including, recommending a roadmap for switching from WPI to Producer Price Index.

 

The Department for Promotion of Industry has done their draft work, so we are expecting that in the next few months the new WPI series will get done. If we see the sequencing they are doing, perhaps they will release the WPI first and then the Producer Price Index, it might be very close to each other.

 

Q. Has the Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade prepared a Producer Price Index for the services as well?

A. So they will first go with Producer Price Index for goods and the services might take some more time.

 

Q. Once the Producer Price Index is out, will it completely replace the WPI in the GDP series use case?

A. Producer Price Index in respect of relevant items will be used, once the same is released by the industry department. However, the final decision regarding the use of the Producer Price Index will be made in consultation with the Advisory Committee on National Account Statistics.

 

Q. The statistics ministry will release the new IIP series in May. But a key component of the IIP is the eight core industries data compiled by Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade. Is the industry department also updating the eight core industries series?

A. The Index of Eight Core Industries is compiled and released by the Office of the Economic Adviser, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade. The industry department has initiated the revision of base year of the eight core industries (data).

 

Q. How far along is the Department for Promotion of Industry in the process of revision of eight core industries?

A. The IIP we are going to release at end of May. We are on track to do that. There is no change in the data collection done by the industry department. The change will be more in terms of the weightages of the different industrial groups and how we handle seasonality.

 

We will release both seasonally adjusted numbers for IIP and chain indexed (data).

 

Q. With the revision of key data almost over, what is next for the statistics ministry? Are you looking at new surveys or compiling new economic indicators?

A. With the revision of key datasets nearing completion, the focus will be on further strengthening the statistical system and expanding the coverage of high-frequency economic indicators.

 

One important area under consideration is the development of an Index of Services Production, which would complement the IIP and provide more timely insights into the services sector.

 

The ministry is in the process of launching the first ever nation-wide income survey named National Household Income Survey from April to collect detailed and disaggregated information on the components of household income. Information compiled from the survey can be utilised for the estimation of total and disposable household income and will also facilitate measurement of income inequality and income dispersion. The availability of unit-level data will permit in-depth micro-level analysis to assess the impact and effectiveness of social welfare programmes on household income, purchasing power, and living standards.

 

The ministry will launch the Annual Survey of Incorporated Services Sector Enterprises in April. This survey is expected to plug the data gap presently existing in the service sector database by providing granular information to incorporate services sector enterprises using the GST Network database as the sampling frame for the first time in the National Sample Survey eco-system.

 

The Rapid Survey of Functional Cooperatives is proposed to be conducted at the request of Ministry of Cooperation to estimate Gross Value Added and Gross Value of Output as well as employment for the sectors at all India level. The ministry is also planning to launch new surveys like survey on Common Property Resources during 2026 and survey on Adult Skills during 2027.

 

The ministry will also release a city-level report of selected indicators for cities with million-plus population as per Census 2011 for the unincorporated non-agricultural sector enterprises.  End

 

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

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