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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – The rupee ended off the day's high against the dollar Thursday as banks bought dollars on behalf of importers and to cover positions maturing in the non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said. However, the Reserve Bank of India's active presence continued to ensure that the local unit did not fall below the key 91 per dollar mark, they said.

 

"Rupee had risen a bit in the morning due to dollar weakness, but there is demand (for dollars) in the market all across," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. After hitting a high of 90.8050 a dollar early in the trade, the rupee settled at 90.9050, against 90.9475 on Wednesday. During the day, the Indian currency moved in a range of just 12 paise.

 

The rupee started the day higher against the dollar as the dollar index weakened amid tariff uncertainty. After the US Supreme Court struck down most tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump in 2025, Trump imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all imports with effect from Tuesday for 150 days. On Wednesday, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from 10%, without naming any specific trading partners or giving details.

 

The dollar index also fell ahead of the outcome of a meeting between US and Iran officials Thursday. US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to meet an Iranian delegation for a third round of discussions in Geneva. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.72, compared with 97.64 Wednesday and 97.88 Tuesday. The index had fallen to 97.49 earlier in the day.

 

The Indian currency gained further as banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, dealers said. So far in February, foreign portfolio investors have infused around $3.65 billion of funds into domestic markets, out of which $2.44 billion was into equities.

 

However, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which weighed on the local unit, they said. The rupee was also weighed down by dollar demand related to maturity of multiple non-deliverable forwards contracts, as has been the case for the last two days, they said. The Indian unit hit a low of 90.9250 a dollar during the day.

 

Meanwhile, the central bank likely stepped in through dollar sales, as has been the case this week, to prevent the domestic currency from falling past the 91.00 mark, dealers said. However, the intervention was not aggressive in nature, they said.

 

"Volatility has been very less this week because of RBI," a dealer at another private-sector bank said. "A lot of traders are on back foot because of that. There is no point keeping large positions as nobody knows what will happen next."

 

Dealers expressed a sense of confusion over the rupee's outlook in the near term. Some expect the RBI to let the Indian unit fall past the 91.00 level going ahead, while others expect the central bank to intervene heavily through dollar sales any day now. "We have seen RBI backing up mild interventions with heavy action on one day since they are averse to speculators," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

Noting the active intervention by the central bank, dealers said some exporters have also started selling dollars, which supported the local unit.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9050	90.8650	90.8050	90.9250	90.9475
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	241.79	239.71	242.29	238.35	240.04

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing weakness in the rupee going ahead, dealers said. The rupee has been at risk of falling past the key 91 per dollar mark since last week due to renewed uncertainty over US tariffs and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran.

 

However, some banks sold forward dollars noting comfortable surplus rupee liquidity in the banking system, which limited the rise of forward premiums, dealers said. The net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the RBI -- a proxy for the liquidity surplus -- was INR 2.25 trillion Wednesday, according to the latest data.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.66%, higher than Wednesday's close of 2.62%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 241.79 paise, against 240.04 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of the dollar index and crude oil prices, dealers said. Market participants will keep a close watch on further developments related to US tariffs and tensions between Iran and the US.

 

Amidst the current global uncertainties, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency. Most market participants expect the RBI to continue preventing the Indian unit from falling below the key 91.00 mark. If the domestic unit falls below 91.00, they expect it to decline to 91.50 shortly.

 

Market participants expect some support for the Indian unit from inflows linked to the MSCI rebalancing. The number of Indian companies in the MSCI Global Standard Index will increase to 165 from 164 following the rebalancing, which will be effective Friday. Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, expects inflows of $500 million on the back of MSCI rejig to hit the market on Friday.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.50-91.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.00.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen up on comments by BoJ officials; dollar steady

 

	AT 1520 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3529	1.3575	1.3519	1.3557
EUR/USD	1.1799	1.1829	1.1797	1.1810
NZD/USD	0.5989	0.6013	0.5986	0.5998
AUD/USD	0.7121	0.7137	0.7110	0.7122
USD/JPY	156.0650	156.4950	155.7090	156.3630
USD/CAD	1.3677	1.3681	1.3660	1.3673
EUR/JPY	184.1400	184.7962	184.0110	184.6340
CHF/USD	1.2919	1.2970	1.2916	1.2937
EUR/CHF	0.9132	0.9134	0.9118	0.9126

 

NEW DELHI – The Japanese yen rose 0.3% against the dollar after Bank of Japan's monetary policy board member Hajime Takata Thursday said that the central bank must focus on the risk of an inflation overshoot in guiding monetary policy and called for increasing interest rates sooner rather than later.

 

"I believe the bank should make a further gear shift, and engage in communication that assumes that the price stability target is almost achieved," Takata said in a speech to business leaders in Kyoto. He also flagged the risk that an external shock could drive Japan's inflation up more than expected.

 

Earlier in the day, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the board can make a decision to hike the policy rate at the upcoming March and April meetings after examining the available information at that time, the Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper reported. Ueda said the central bank will continue to raise interest rates if Japan makes progress in achieving its economic and price projections.

 

The euro was flat against the greenback. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde Thursday said that the central bank expects food inflation to settle just above its 2% target late this year. "Looking forward, we expect it to continue to decline and stabilise somewhat above 2% as of late 2026," Lagarde told a committee of the European Parliament, as per reports.

 

The pound sterling fell 0.3% against the US unit ahead of a special election on Thursday in Manchester's Gorton and Denton constituency to fill a vacant parliamentary seat. The election is being held following the resignation of former labour minister Andrew Gwynne and is seen as a crucial test for UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer amid internal party discontent and low approval ratings.

 

The dollar index was broadly steady amid uncertainty over US tariffs. After the US Supreme Court struck down most tariffs imposed by him in 2025, Trump imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all US imports for 150 days which came into effect Tuesday. The US tariff rate for some countries will rise to 15% or higher from the newly imposed 10%, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday, without naming any specific trading partners or giving further details.

 

At 1520 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.72, compared with 97.64 Wednesday and 97.88 Tuesday. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy fwd dollars on fear rupee may fall

 

	AT 1420 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.8650	90.8650	90.8050	90.9100	90.9475
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	241.79	239.71	242.29	238.35	240.04

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium rose as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing weakness in the rupee going ahead, dealers said. "With global uncertainty rising, long (dollar) bets have increased," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Also, we don't really know how long RBI will continue to protect 91.00. So, importers are hedging."

 

The rupee has been at risk of falling past the key 91 per dollar mark since last week amid renewed uncertainty over US tariffs and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. However, the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention has prevented the Indian currency from breaching the key level, dealers said. The RBI likely intervened through dollar sales on Thursday as well, they said. 

 

However, some banks sold forward dollars noting comfortable surplus rupee liquidity in the banking system, which limited gains for forward premiums, dealers said. The net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the RBI -- a proxy for the liquidity surplus -- was INR 2.25 trillion Wednesday, according to the latest data.

 

At 1420 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.66%, higher than Wednesday's close of 2.62%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 241.79 paise, against 240.04 paise Wednesday. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: In thin range as RBI's intervention offsets importers' dlr buys

 

	AT 1335 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.8875	90.8650	90.8050	90.9100	90.9475

 

NEW DELHI - The rupee remained in a tight range against the dollar as the impact of banks' dollar purchases on behalf of importers was offset by state-owned banks' dollar sales, likely for the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The Indian unit has traded in a range of just 11 paise so far on Thursday.  

 

"Market is muted, as it has been all week. RBI is very much there around 90.90," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Volatility has reduced quite a bit because of that." The central bank has been actively selling dollars in the spot market this week to keep the Indian unit from falling past the key 91 per dollar mark, dealers said. 

 

The Indian unit had risen to 90.8050 a dollar in early trade due to weakness in the dollar index and foreign fund inflows into domestic equities, dealers said. However, banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which weighed on the local unit, they said. The Indian unit was also weighed by dollar demand related to maturity of multiple non-deliverable forwards contracts, as has been the case for the last two days as well, they said. 

 

A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 1335 IST, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.2?ch. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.70 and 91.00 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 26

 

NEW DELHI – At 1125 IST, the rupee was at 90.8850 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.8650 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.9475 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	91.50	91.00	90.50	90.20
Private-sector bank	91.20	91.00	90.70	-
Private-sector bank	91.00	90.96	90.60	90.20
Brokerage firm	91.20	91.00	90.60	90.20

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee:Rises on FX inflows, improved risk sentiment; US-Iran talks eyed

 

	AT 0949 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.8650	90.8650	90.8050	90.8850	90.9475

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar in early trade Thursday as banks sold the greenback for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, dealers said. A rise in other Asian currencies on improved risk sentiment also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

"The sentiment has improved across the globe, which is benefitting us also and taking the (dollar-rupee) pair down," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "We expect it to fall to 90.70 in today's session."  

 

Risk sentiment for Indian equities improved on the back of artificial intelligence-led gains on the Wall Street. At 0945 IST, both benchmark indices the Nifty 50 and the Sensex were up 0.2% against the dollar.

 

The greenback weakened on lower safe-haven demand, which also supported the local unit. At 0829 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.58, compared with 97.64 Wednesday and 97.88 Tuesday. 

 

However, some banks bought the greenback on behalf of importers and oil marketing companies, which limited gains for the local unit, dealers said. Importers will look to stock up on the greenback at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, they said. 

 

Market participants keenly await the outcome of a meeting between US and Iran officials later in the day. US representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are scheduled to meet with an Iranian delegation for a third round of discussions on Thursday in Geneva. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.70 and 91.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX:Most up; Bank of Korea holds rates, raises growth view

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Thursday as risk sentiment for emerging economies improved on the back of artificial intelligence-led gains on the Wall Street. The greenback weakened on lower safe-haven demand, which also supported Asian currencies. 

 

At 0829 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.58, compared with 97.64 Wednesday and 97.88 Tuesday. 

 

The South Korean won rose 0.2% against the dollar following expectations of a status quo from the monetary policy committee of the country. The Bank of Korea on Thursday left its benchmark seven-day repurchase rate at 2.50% for the sixth consecutive meeting. The central bank also raised its growth projections for Asia's fourth-largest economy. It now expects GDP to expand 2.0% in 2026, up from its November forecast of 1.8%.

 

The Taiwan dollar rose 0.2% against the dollar. Heightened demand for chipmakers' shares have led to huge inflows into Taiwan's stock markets, supporting the local currency. Wednesday saw the largest amount of foreign inflows into Taiwan in nearly 20 years. 

 

The offshore Chinese yuan was 0.3% higher against the dollar. China's yuan strengthened to its strongest level in nearly three years on Wednesday, as improved trade sentiment and heavy foreign-exchange sales by exporters supported the currency, local media reported. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah fell 0.2%, while the Thai Baht was down 0.1% against the dollar. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 26

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	91.00	90.70
Private-sector bank	91.00	90.65
Private-sector bank	91.20	90.60
Foreign bank	91.10	90.70
Brokerage firm	91.20	90.70
Brokerage firm	91.08	90.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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