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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 25, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

NEW DELHI – After trading in a tight range throughout the day, the rupee ended steady against the dollar on Wednesday as the impact of dollar purchases by importers and foreign portfolio investors was offset by the Reserve Bank of India's intervention through dollar sales, dealers said.

 

"The trade was pretty muted today because there was constant support by them (RBI) around 90.96 (a dollar)," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "It is really a matter of time now. 91.00 can break any day because demand (for dollars) is very much there."

 

After trading in a narrow band of 9 paise, the rupee settled at 90.9475 a dollar on Wednesday, broadly unchanged from 90.9500 on Tuesday. Other Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.5% against the dollar. The South Korean won was the best performer amongst its peers, while the Indian unit was one of the worst.

 

The Indian currency started the day steady against the dollar as market participants expected the RBI to keep the unit from falling past the 91.00 mark. The central bank has been actively intervening in the spot market since last week to keep the rupee from falling past the key level, they said.

 

Traders were also cautious of any updates on US tariffs from President Donald Trump's State of the Union address to the US Congress. In his address, Trump briefly mentioned a case for a possible attack on Iran. However, he spoke little of his tariff policies that were recently struck down by the US Supreme Court.

 

Shortly after opening, the Indian unit was supported by dollar sales by banks, likely for foreign fund inflows, dealers said. However, gains for the rupee were short-lived, as banks rushed to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, who wanted to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, they said.

 

Oil marketing companies also bought dollars, fearing a further rise in crude oil prices given the tensions between the US and Iran, they said. Brent crude oil prices have jumped up almost 5% since last week. Oil prices rose on Wednesday as investors weighed the possibility of military conflict between the US and Iran that could disrupt supply.

 

Some banks also bought dollars on behalf of FPIs, who wanted to withdraw funds from Indian markets, dealers said. Risk appetite of investors has taken a beating owing to renewed US tariff uncertainty. After the US Supreme Court struck down most tariffs imposed by him in 2025, Trump imposed a baseline 10% tariff on all US imports for 150 days which came into effect Tuesday. Trump also threatened to raise the baseline tariff to 15%, but is yet to sign an executive order to implement the higher rate.

 

The Indian currency has also been under downward pressure for the last two days due to maturity of multiple non-deliverable forwards contracts, they said. However, the central bank stepped in through dollar sales in the spot market around 90.95 a dollar, which kept the Indian unit from falling past the 91 mark throughout the day, dealers said. The RBI likely sold around $1 billion in the spot market on Wednesday, according to some dealers.

 

"RBI is protecting the 91.00 level quite actively," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "But it is not so much that the rupee moves 10-15 paise higher. They are just selling (dollars) as much that the 91.00 level doesn't cross."

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9475	90.9350	90.8750	90.9625	90.9500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	240.04	241.23	241.23	236.95	240.74

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended lower Wednesday as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who wanted to make the most of the recent rise in levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium had hit an over three-week high of 2.70% on Tuesday.

 

Forward premiums have gained across most tenures this week as the rupee's recent weakness against the dollar has prompted banks to buy dollars for forward delivery, in fear that the Indian currency may fall more, dealers said.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.62%, lower than Tuesday's close of 2.65%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 240.04 paise, against 240.74 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Thursday, the rupee is likely to take cues from the movement of the dollar index in view of the recent developments on US tariffs, dealers said.

 

"After the US court dismissed parts of Trump's tariff structure, renewed statements from Trump regarding potential consequences for countries revisiting trade terms have kept currency markets on edge," Jateen Trivedi, vice president research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. "For now, rupee remains range-bound with support seen near 91.25 and resistance around 90.50, awaiting clearer direction from global trade developments and dollar index movement."

 

The local currency may also take cues from the movement of crude oil prices amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, they said. Amidst the global uncertainties, dealers expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee pair, which may weigh on the Indian currency.

 

However, market participants expect the RBI to continue preventing the Indian unit from falling below the key 91.00 mark. If the domestic unit falls below 91.00, they expect it to decline to 91.50 shortly. "One doesn't know when RBI will let 91.00 break. Since RBI is against build-up of speculative positions, they may let it break any day or intervene aggressively. Anything can happen," a dealer at another state-owned bank said.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.50-91.00 against the dollar. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.00.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen falls further on PM Takaichi's rate hike concern

 

	AT 1509 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3514	1.3534	1.3488	1.3487
EUR/USD	1.1789	1.1809	1.1773	1.1772
NZD/USD	0.5974	0.5992	0.5962	0.5964
AUD/USD	0.7087	0.7117	0.7057	0.7057
USD/JPY	156.4100	156.6620	155.3530	155.9030
USD/CAD	1.3694	1.3705	1.3675	1.3696
EUR/JPY	184.4090	184.6800	183.2130	183.5300
CHF/USD	1.2921	1.2957	1.2913	1.2915
EUR/CHF	0.9123	0.9130	0.9110	0.9112

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen remained under pressure against the dollar on reports that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi had voiced concern about additional interest rate hikes during her meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week, the Mainichi daily reported Tuesday. The yen was down 0.4% against the dollar at 156.47.

 

Takaichi also nominated Ayano Sato and Toichiro Asada to replace Asahi Noguchi and Junko Nakagawa. The two officials. considered highly dovish, may seek to counter the moderately hawkish Governor Ueda, who delivered several interest rate hikes.

 

The dollar index, which started the day weaker, recovered slightly during European trade following comments from US President Donald Trump. In his State of the Union address, Trump claimed there is no inflation and there is "tremendous growth" and pointed to tariffs as one of the main reasons for the turnaround. He added that almost all trading partners of the US want to keep the trade deals they already made despite the Supreme Court's ruling.

 

At 1507 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.83, compared with 97.88 Tuesday and 97.70 Monday.  

 

The pound sterling was up 0.2% against the dollar. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Tuesday that the bank's March policy decision "genuinely remains an open question", giving rise to expectations of a rate hike. Chief Economist Huw Pill and monetary policy commitee member Megan Greene highlighted persistent upside risks to inflation.

 

The euro was flat against the dollar but came under pressure after German consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened. The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions, fell to -24.7 points for March from a revised -24.2 points in February, contrary to analysts' expectations of a rise to -23.1.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: In thin band; fall below 91/$1 averted as RBI likely sells dlrs

 

	AT 1328 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9050	90.9350	90.8750	90.9575	90.9500

 

MUMBAI – The rupee moved in a narrow range against the dollar Wednesday as dollar purchases by banks on behalf of oil marketing companies and foreign portfolio investors were offset by likely sale of dollars by the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said.

 

"It (rupee) is expected to remain here because they (RBI) are not letting it slip and oilers (oil marketing companies) and FPIs (foreign portfolio investors) are not going to stop buying," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

State-owned banks sold dollars on behalf of the RBI to prevent the rupee from falling below the key 91 per dollar level. Dealers said there was widespread caution amongst foreign investors as they were closely monitoring any and all developments between the US and Iran.

 

In his State of the Union address to a joint session of the Senate and House of Representatives late Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he would prefer to resolve differences with Tehran through diplomacy, while laying out his case for potential attacks on Iran, which he claimed was seeking to develop missiles that could strike the US.

 

Some banks bought dollars for foreign portfolio investors pulling out funds from Indian equities, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Some banks also bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies who fear any conflict between the US and Iran could lead to a surge in crude oil prices, dealers said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.70 and 91.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premium falls as exporters sell fwd dollars on rise in levels

 

	AT 1325 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.8800	90.9350	90.8750	90.9575	90.9500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	239.04	241.23	241.23	236.95	240.74

 

NEW DELHI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell Wednesday as banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who wanted to make the most of the recent rise in levels, dealers said. The one-year forward premium hit an over three-week high of 2.70% on Tuesday. 

 

Forward premiums have gained across most tenures this week as the rupee's recent weakness against the dollar prompted banks to buy dollars for forward delivery, in fear that the Indian currency may fall more, dealers said. Recently, the Indian unit has come under downward pressure, inching closer to the key 91-per-dollar mark, owing to renewed uncertainty over US tariffs and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. However, the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention has ensured losses for the rupee are limited. 

 

"We are seeing some profit-booking at these levels, which is why levels have softened," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But I expect paying to resume once again if the 91.00 level breaks."

 

At 1325 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.62%, lower than Tuesday's close of 2.65%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 239.04 paise, against 240.74 paise Tuesday.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 25

 

MUMBAI – At 1131 IST, the rupee was at 90.9500 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.9350 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.9500 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	91.20	91.00	90.50	90.00
Private-sector bank	91.50	91.00	90.60	90.00
Brokerage firm	91.50	91.00	90.50	90.00
Brokerage firm	91.80	91.20	90.60	90.20

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Steady; Traders assess US-Iran developments, Trump speech

 

	AT 0955 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.9050	90.9350	90.8800	90.9350	90.9500

 

MUMBAI - The rupee was steady against the dollar on Wednesday as market participants remained watchful of developments on the US-Iran stand-off, dealers said. Traders also assessed comments from US President Donald Trump in his address to the Congress. 

 

"We are expecting it to remain range bound as on one end importers are there and we have RBI on the other," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "91 (a dollar) will not breach."

 

Addressing the 2026 State of the Union, Trump said, "Just four days ago, an unfortunate ruling from the United States Supreme Court. It just came down. Very unfortunate ruling, but the good news is that almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made..."

 

Dealers said importers bought the greenback on every dip in dollar-rupee levels. However, dealers expect the Reserve Bank of India to interevene through dollar sales if the rupee approaches 91 per dollar again, they said.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.70 and 91.20 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 91.00 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as US-Iran tensions wane, dollar eases

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Wednesday as concerns around the US-Iran stand-off in West Asia eased following comments from Iranian officials. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi on Tuesday rejected claims of the country pursuing an atomic weapon, and confirmed that Tehran is prepared to negotiate an agreement to reduce tensions between Iran and the US. 

 

Concerns and confusion around US tariffs also weighed on the dollar. At 0916 IST, the dollar index, which measures the strength in the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.76, compared with 97.88 Tuesday and 97.70 Monday.

 

The offshore Chinese yuan was up 0.1% against the dollar. The yuan hit a three-year high against the dollar Tuesday as traders returning from the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday hoped that the US Supreme Court ruling against President Donald Trump's tariffs will bolster Chinese exports.

 

The Australian dollar rose 0.5% against the greenback as strong inflation data reinforced bets of strict monetary policy going forward. Headline CPI was at 3.8% on an annual basis in January, while trimmed mean inflation – the central bank's preferred gauge – remained at 3.4% for a second consecutive month. That marks a fourth straight month of inflation being above the upper end of the central bank's 2–3% target band.

 

The South Korean won slumped 0.3% against the dollar. Market participants await the outcome of Bank of Korea's policy meeting on Thursday. Market consensus anticipates that the central bank will hold the base rate steady at 2.50%, as policymakers weigh current economic momentum against inflation and growth trends.

 

The Philippine peso and the Taiwan dollar were down 0.4?ch against the dollar.  (Kabir Sharma) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 25

 

MUMBAI – Following are the support and resistance levels expected for the rupee Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist Poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	91.00	90.70
Private-sector bank	91.00	90.65
Private-sector bank	91.20	90.60
Foreign bank	91.10	90.70
Brokerage firm	91.20	90.70
Brokerage firm	91.08	90.78

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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