More Stories

Informist, Monday, Feb. 23, 2026

 

MUMBAI – Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to return in early spring, after which a transition to an El Nino event is expected during India's southwest monsoon, private weather agency Skymet said. A possible formation of El Nino conditions later this year could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027, the weather agency said.

 

According to the current forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization's seasonal prediction, oceanic and atmospheric indicators reveal borderline La Nina conditions currently, the weather agency said. These conditions are likely to dilute further and turn to neutral El Nino-Southern Osillation conditions during early spring, which is around the end of March. There are some precursors present for an El Nino development during Jun-Jul, but it is too early to comment on the scale and spread of the phenomenon, the agency said.

 

The occurrence of El Nino typically pushes global temperatures higher. The El Nino event, which had formed in mid-2023, persisted for 11 months and lasted until around April 2024, adding 0.12 degrees Celsius to the global temperature in 2024, the weather agency said. The past three years have each ranked among the top three warmest years on record for the planet, with 2024 being the hottest on record, having surpassed 2023. In 2024, the global temperature was 1.55 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial level. Weather agencies and climate scientists have pointed to the possibility of an El Nino forming in the Pacific Ocean later this year, a phenomenon that could push global temperatures to all-time record highs in 2027, Skymet said.

 

Currently, most El Nino-Southern Oscillation index anomalies indicate warming across the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean. However, due to the influence of the 'spring barrier', the index anomalies are fluctuating and remain difficult to interpret. The commencement, scale, and cessation of an El Nino event later in the year can only be determined with a shorter lead time, the weather agency said. 

 

The 'spring barrier' is often used to highlight the uncertainty in the outlook for El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the first half of the year, and it conveys the general idea that forecasts are intrinsically more uncertain, or less skilful, in connection with Northern Hemisphere spring.  End

 

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Vandana Hingorani

 

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

 

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

 

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

 

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.