More Stories

Informist, Saturday, Feb. 21, 2026

MUMBAI – Government bond prices may open lower Monday after the RBI said that 16 states would raise INR 445.50 billion through bond issuances Tuesday, slightly higher than the indicated amount of INR 442.21 billion in the states' borrowing calendar for Jan-Mar. Dealers were fearing an amount higher than indicated, since states usually increase their borrowing close to the end of the March quarter--a seasonally high period of state borrowing.

Overnight indexed swap rates may track the movement of bond yields, dealers said. Traders may also track the minutes of the RBI's MPC February meeting.

The one-day call money rate may open near the RBI's repo rate of 5.25% due to demand for funds amid outflows for GST payments. During the day, the call money rate is expected to move in a range of 4.90-5.25%. 

Traders will also assess the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down most tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, noting that he exceeded his authority in imposing sweeping import duties on nearly all of Washington's trading partners. Saturday, Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on all countries under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. 

GOVERNMENT BONDS

On Monday, bond prices may open lower after the RBI said that 16 states would raise INR 445.50 billion through bond issuances Tuesday, slightly higher than the indicated amount of INR 442.21 billion in the states' borrowing calendar for Jan-Mar. Dealers were fearing an amount higher than indicated, since states usually increase their borrowing close to the end of the March quarter--a seasonally high period of state borrowing.

Traders may also take cues from the minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee's February meeting released post market hours Friday. Members of the RBI's rate-setting panel said they would remain data-dependent going ahead.

They may also track the movement of US Treasury yields after the release of economic data, including US Personal Income and Outlays for December. Further developments related to the ongoing tensions between Iran and the US will be monitored.

Bonds maturing in six years or more may be under selling pressure due to incoming supply of gilts of these tenures at the INR-250-billion gilt switch auction Monday, dealers said. Significant movement in the rupee, the five-year OIS rate, and crude oil prices may also lend cues, dealers said.

Later next week, India's GDP for Oct-Dec based on the new series and second advance estimate for FY26 will be released by the statistics ministry on Feb. 27. The 10-year benchmark 6.48%, 2035 bond is seen in a range of 6.68-6.77% Monday. On Friday, the bond ended at INR 98.30, or 6.72% yield.

OIS RATES

On Monday, OIS rates may track the movement of bond yields, dealers said. Traders may also track the minutes of the RBI's MPC February meeting.

Traders may also track the movement of US Treasury yields and further developments between Iran and US. Traders will assess the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down a vast number of tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump.

Significant movement in the rupee and crude oil prices may also lend cues, dealers said. Traders expect the Overnight Mumbai Interbank Outright Rate to rise in the near term, dealers said. The one-year swap rate is seen at 5.40-5.60% and the five-year at 5.95-6.25%. On Friday, the one-year swap rate ended at 5.52% and the five-year swap rate at 6.10%.

CALL

On Monday, the one-day call money rate may open near the RBI's repo rate of 5.25% due to demand for funds amid outflows for GST payments. During the day, the call money rate is expected to move in a range of 4.90-5.25%. 

The surplus liquidity in the banking system is expected to have fallen below INR 2 trillion Saturday, after around INR 1.2 trillion outflows for GST payments during Friday and Saturday. Dealers see Friday's liquidity to remain near the INR-2-trillion mark.

RBI AUCTION

--Nil

LIQUIDITY

Total net outflows of INR 192.58 billion. The calculation of flows does not take into account redemption of the standing deposit facility and scheduled variable rate repo and variable rate reverse repo operations.

* Inflows

--INR 6.38 billion as coupon of state bonds on Sunday

--INR 53.72 billion as coupon on 7.26%, 2032 on Sunday

--INR 50.37 billion as coupon on 6.76%, 2061 on Sunday

--INR 13.45 billion as coupon of state bonds on Monday

* Outflows

--INR 330 billion as payment for gilts on Monday

End

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

Reported by J. Navya Sruthi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.