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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 19, 2026

 

By Eshitva Prakash

 

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are likely to extend their losses on Friday amid bearish sentiment following escalating tensions between the US and Iran. Investors are concerned about rising crude oil prices amid fears of a potential conflict. Media reports said US President Donald Trump is weighing options, including the possibility of launching an attack on the West Asian country as early as this weekend. 

 

"Crude oil prices are likely to remain elevated in the near-term unless the US and Iran reach an agreement to de-escalate tensions," Swarnendu Bhushan, research analyst at Prabhudas Lilladher, said. At 1651 IST, the April Brent crude futures contract was trading over 1% higher at $71.14 per barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange. While Bhushan said it would be difficult to predict crude oil prices if tensions escalate into a conflict, but added that prices would gradually ease to $64–65 if the two countries reach an agreement.   

 

The analyst sees a direct impact on crude oil supplies to Indian companies in the event of a US attack on Iran, saying that supply disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz will cause logistical problems for most countries worldwide. However, in the long term, Bhushan does not see a significant impact on Indian oil and gas companies, as they do not have a significant crude oil inflow from Iran. 

 

The US military is continuing to increase the presence of its air and naval assets in West Asia, Hindustan Times reported. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that while progress was made in the Geneva talks, the two nations remained "far apart" on certain issues, according to the report. 

 

There are other structural reasons why crude oil prices will rise in the medium to long term, according to Apurva Sheth, head of market perspectives & research at SAMCO Securities. "Crude oil has many more tailwinds like the US shale revolution coming to an end, underinvestments in capacities, and an upcoming surge in demand as countries like China build up their strategic reserves that are driving the prices up," the analyst said. 

 

Apart from oil explorers and refiners, shares of information technology companies will be in focus, analysts said, adding that these stocks will continue to add volatility in the market. Analysts agree that while near-term disruptions from artificial intelligence tools remain improbable, the medium-term revenues of Indian IT companies may contract as they pass on AI-related cost savings to customers in a highly competitive market. Some analysts said a reduction in headcount in IT is inevitable and may aid margins over the long-term.

 

"The claims made by companies on reducing enterprise resource planning implementation from years to a few weeks with the help of AI sounds exaggerated," Kunal Bajaj, IT research analyst at Choice Broking, said. The analyst, however, believes that AI integration will lead to cost savings for IT companies. In the short term, with the high technological debt in domestic companies, most AI service contracts for IT majors will be for modernisation, rather than direct implementation in different companies, Bajaj said.

 

On Thursday, the Nifty 50 ended at 25454.35 points, down 365 points or 1.4%. The BSE Sensex ended 1.5% lower at 82498.14 points. The 25200 level is now seen as the short-term support zone for the Nifty 50, Bajaj Broking said in a note. The brokerage sees the Nifty 50 facing immediate resistance at 25650 points. End

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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