More Stories

Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026

NEW DELHI – Government bond prices and overnight indexed swap rates are expected to track overnight movement in US Treasury yields after the release of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting, due 0030 IST Thursday, dealers said. Indian financial markets regulated by the Reserve Bank of India are closed on Thursday for Shivaji Jayanti. Traders will also focus on the weekly gilts auction.

India's Monetary Policy Committee is likely to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% through FY27. Traders are now waiting for the release of India's GDP print for Oct-Dec, based on the new series and the second advance estimate for FY26, scheduled to be announced by the statistics ministry on Feb. 27.

Market participants expect overnight indexed swap rates to move within a narrow range and and remain on the lower side as US Treasury yields have fallen considerably so far this month and the rupee has stabilised against the dollar.

Significant movement in the rupee and crude oil prices may also lend cues, dealers said. On Friday, the three-day call will open near the RBI's repo rate of 5.25% due to outflows for GST payments, dealers said. During the day, the call rate is expected to move in a range of 5.00-5.25%.

GOVERNMENT BONDS

RBI-regulated markets are shut Thursday for Shivaji Jayanti. Friday, bond prices may track the movement of US Treasury yields after the release of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting, due 0030 IST Thursday, though domestic traders have not built significant positions ahead of the release, dealers said. The focus will be on the weekly gilts auction. Next week, traders will track the result of the gilt switch auction. Later in the week, India's GDP for Oct-Dec based on the new series and second advance estimate for FY26 will be released by the statistics ministry Feb. 27.

The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is expected to keep the policy repo rate at 5.25% through FY27, dealers said. Traders do not expect further liquidity infusions or open market operation auctions to buy bonds from the RBI following comments by central bank officials after the monetary policy earlier this month. This is likely to keep the 10-year gilt yield in a band of 6.55-6.85% till March, dealers said.

Significant movement in the rupee and crude oil prices may also lend cues, dealers said. The 10-year benchmark 6.48%, 2035 bond is seen in the range of 6.63-6.72% Friday.

OIS RATES

On Friday, OIS rates may track movement in US Treasury yields after the release of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's January meeting, dealers said. On the domestic front, swaps may also track the movement of Indian government bond yields after the result of the INR-330-billion gilt auction Friday, dealers said.

Traders expect swap rates in a narrow range and remain on the lower side, as US Treasury yields have fallen considerably so far this month and the rupee has stabilised against the dollar.

While offshore traders may continue to receive fixed-rate contracts in swaps, the fall in short-term swap rates is seen limited as traders expect the Overnight Mumbai Interbank Outright Rate to rise in the near term, dealers said. After India's CPI inflation data for January, the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is now seen holding the policy repo rate at 5.25% through FY27, dealers said. Traders await the release of India's GDP for Oct-Dec based on the new series and second advance estimate for FY26, which will be released by the statistics ministry on Feb. 27.

Traders may also track movement in crude oil prices and the rupee against the dollar. The one-year swap rate is seen at 5.40-5.55% and the five-year at 5.95-6.15%.

CALL

On Friday, the three-day call will open near the RBI's repo rate of 5.25% due to outflows for GST payments, dealers said. During the day, the call rate is expected to move in a range of 5.00-5.25%.

RBI AUCTION

--Govt to auction three gilts worth INR 330 billion Friday

LIQUIDITY

Total net outflows of INR 33.89 billion. The calculation of flows does not take into account redemption of the standing deposit facility and scheduled variable rate repo and variable rate reverse repo operations.

* Inflows

--INR 156.64 billion as redemption of 91-day Treasury bills on Thursday

--INR 80.00 billion as redemption of 182-day T-bills on Thursday

--INR 5.11 billion as coupon on state bonds on Thursday

--INR 70.36 billion as redemption of 364-day T-bills on Friday

--INR 17.06 billion as coupon on state bonds on Friday

* Outflows

--INR 160.06 billion as payment for 91-day T-bills on Friday

--INR 120.00 billion as payment for 182-day T-bills on Friday

--INR 83.00 billion as payment for 364-day T-bills on Friday

End

Reported by Vaishali Tyagi

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.

Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.

Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000

Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com

© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.