India Rupee Review
Steady before FOMC minutes; RBI's likely dollar sales help
This story was originally published at 16:08 IST on 18 February 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026
By Kabir Sharma
MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar Wednesday as market participants were cautious of placing large bets ahead of the release of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's January 27-28 meeting later Wednesday, dealers said. However, some dealers speculated that the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars to limit a fall of the rupee, whick kept the currency in a tight range against the greenback.
"Tomorrow's holiday and the release of data have kept a lid on the dollar," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "We will defenitely see some swings on Friday if they (the RBI) let it go." Money markets are shut Thursday for Shivaji Jayanti.
After trading in a narrow band of under 15 paise for the third consecutive day, the rupee settled at 90.6675 Wednesday, largely unchanged from 90.6725 Tuesday. The rupee touched an intraday high of 90.5900 a dollar.
Other Asian currencies were mixed against the dollar as volumes were lacklustre due to holidays for the Lunar New Year celebrations. Markets in China and Hong Kong as well as various regional exchanges remained closed Wednesday for the celebrations.
Dealers said foreign banks sold the greenback for foreign inflows into Indian equities, which supported the rupee. Foreign investors have pumped over $1 billion into Indian equities so far this month. The benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 indices ended up 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively.
The dollar remained firm as geopolitical risks left markets jittery. Investors focused on the minutes of the FOMC meeting for indications on upcoming rate cuts. This, too, weighed on the rupee. At 1551 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.24, compared with 97.11 Tuesday and 97.10 Monday.
A fall in crude oil prices, which was expected to support the rupee, led to an uptick in dollar purchases by oil marketing companies, ultimately weighing on the local currency, dealers said. Oil prices dropped roughly 2% to their lowest level in two weeks Tuesday amid optimism that tensions between the US and Iran were cooling, following remarks by Iran's foreign minister indicating that the two countries had achieved a consensus on the key "guiding principles" of their nuclear negotiations.
As the rupee approached the day's low of 90.7150 a dollar, some dealers speculated that state-owned banks sold the greenback on behalf of the RBI to prevent further depreciation of the local currency. "Yes, RBI is present on both buy and sell side, they are intervening above 90.70 since the last 2-3 sessions," a dealer at a brokerage firm said.
The local currency has fluctuated within a tight range over the past three sessions as any slight increase attracts enough dollar demand from importers and speculators while any drop is approached with caution due to concern that the RBI may intervene in the spot market.
The caution arises out of the RBI's surprise dollar sales before the spot market opened last week to push the rupee higher, leading to expectations that the central bank will protect the domestic currency from breaching the 91-a-dollar level, dealers said.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6675 | 90.6450 | 90.5900 | 90.7150 | 90.6725 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 229.25 | 226.52 | 230.18 | 226.52 | 233.21 |
FORWARDS
Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Wednesday as exporters sold dollars for forward delivery owing to comfortable rupee liquidity in the banking system, dealers said. "Rupee liquidity is pulling premiums down, and there is no hedging demand, so it will move downwards," a dealer at a state-owned bank.
According to the latest data, the net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the RBI--a proxy for the liquidity surplus--was INR 2.62 trillion Tuesday, up from INR 2.59 trillion Monday. On Tuesday, there were INR 19.74 billion worth of inflows for coupons and redemption of state bonds.
A slight rise in US Treasury yields also weighed on premiums, dealers said. US Treasury yields rose from several-month lows Tuesday as investors assessed potential US Federal Reserve policy in the absence of other significant factors to influence market trends. Participants now look forward to the release of the FOMC minutes later Wednesday. Investors await cues on the Fed's monetary policy path going forward.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.53%, down from the previous close of 2.56%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 229.25 paise, against 233.21 paise Tuesday.
OUTLOOK
The money markets are shut Thursday. Friday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies after the release of the FOMC minutes, dealers said. They expect the RBI to continue to prevent a sharp depreciation of the Indian unit, following its active intervention Thursday.
However, they expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee, which may weigh on the Indian unit. They will also be watchful of support for the rupee from foreign portfolio inflows into domestic markets.
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.40-90.80 against the dollar Wednesday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 90.80.
India Rupee: Steady ahead of Fed minutes; oil cos' dollar buys weigh
| AT 1422 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6675 | 90.6450 | 90.5900 | 90.7150 | 90.6725 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar owing to a lack of cues ahead of the release of the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's January 27-28 meeting later Wednesday, dealers said. "Nothing to dictate the market as of now, we will be able to see action on Friday after the minutes," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. The markets will be shut Thursday for Shivaji Jayanti.
Market participants look forward to the release of the FOMC minutes for cues on the Fed's monetary policy path. Dealers said some banks bought the greenback for oil marketing companies, noting the sharp fall in prices, which weighed on the Indian currency. Oil prices dropped roughly 2% to the lowest level in two weeks Tuesday amid optimism that tensions between the US and Iran were cooling, following remarks by Iran's foreign minister indicating that the two countries had achieved a consensus on the key "guiding principles" of their nuclear negotiations.
However, some banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which supported the local unit, dealers said. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Premiums fall across tenures on comfortable surplus liquidity
| AT 1317 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6400 | 90.6450 | 90.5900 | 90.7150 | 90.6725 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 228.03 | 226.52 | 229.97 | 226.52 | 233.20 |
MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums fell across tenures Wednesday as exporters sold dollars for forward delivery due to comfortable rupee liquidity in the banking system, dealers said. "Rupee liquidity is pulling premiums down, and there is no hedging demand, so it will move downwards," a dealer at a state-owned bank.
According to the latest data, the net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the RBI--a proxy for the liquidity surplus--was at INR 2.62 trillion Tuesday, up from INR 2.59 trillion Monday. On Tuesday, there were INR 19.74 billion worth of inflows for coupons and redemption of state bonds.
A slight rise in US Treasury yields also weighed on premiums, dealers said. US Treasury yields rose from several-month lows on Tuesday as investors assessed potential US Federal Reserve policy, lacking other significant factors to influence market trends.
Market participants look forward to the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting later on Wednesday. Investors await cues on the Fed's monetary policy path going forward.
The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.52% at 1317 IST, lower than Tuesday's close of 2.56%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 228.03 paise, against 233.20 paise Tuesday. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 18
MUMBAI – At 1213 IST, the rupee was at 90.6600 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.6450 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.6725 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.90 | 90.75 | 90.25 | 90.10 |
| Foreign bank | 91.00 | 90.80 | 90.30 | 90.00 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.20 | 91.00 | 90.20 | 90.00 |
| Brokerage firm | 92.00 | 91.00 | 90.20 | 89.60 |
(Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Steady on caution before Jan FOMC minutes; firm dollar weighs
| AT 0953 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6850 | 90.6450 | 90.6275 | 90.6875 | 90.6725 |
MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar on Wednesday as market participants were cautious about placing large bets ahead of the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee January meeting, dealers said. "Let us wait for minutes, I believe if there are any hints of two rate cuts in the current year, rupee will appreciate," a dealer at a private bank said.
Dealers said some banks bought the greenback for oil marketing companies, noting the sharp fall in prices, which weighed on the Indian unit. Oil prices dropped roughly 2% to the lowest level in two weeks on Tuesday amid optimism that tensions between the US and Iran were cooling, following remarks by Iran's foreign minister indicating that the two nations had achieved a consensus on the key "guiding principles" of their nuclear negotiations.
A firm dollar ahead of the minutes also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 0952 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.22, compared with 97.11 Tuesday and 97.10 Monday.
Dealers said they expect foreign fund inflows to support the rupee through the day. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Australian dlr up on hawkish central bank meet minutes
MUMBAI – Currencies in the Asia-Pacific were mixed against the dollar as volumes were lacklustre due to holidays for the Lunar New Year. Markets in China, Hong Kong, and various regional exchanges were closed Wednesday for Lunar New Year celebrations.
The Australian dollar rose against the greenback for a second consecutive session and was up 0.3%, as minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's February meeting offered additional insight into the board's unanimous choice to increase the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking the first rise in more than two years.
The minutes indicated that decisionmakers believed without additional tightening, inflation would persist above the 2% to 3% target range for a long time, with the trimmed mean Consumer Price Index recorded at 3.4% in Oct-Dec and the Melbourne Institute's consumer inflation expectations rising to 5.0% in February. Governor Michele Bullock emphasised the board's readiness to increase rates once more if inflation remains stubborn
The New Zealand dollar fell 0.8% against the dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its cash rate at 2.25% on Wednesday. The committee presented multiple justifications for a stable position, highlighting considerable unused capacity, an estimated output gap of -1.5%, high unemployment rates, and low wage pressures. The output gap gauges the discrepancy between actual performance and the economy's projected capacity, where a negative value signifies that the economy is underperforming relative to its potential.
The dollar remained firm on Wednesday as geopolitical risks left markets jittery, with investors anticipating minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting for indications regarding upcoming rate cuts. At 0917 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.22, compared with 97.11 Tuesday and 97.10 Monday. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 18
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.85 | 90.30 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.85 | 90.45 |
| Private-sector bank | 91.00 | 90.30 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.00 | 90.20 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.95 | 90.45 |
(Kabir Sharma)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Rajeev Pai
For users of real-time market data terminals, Informist news is available exclusively on the NSE Cogencis WorkStation.
Cogencis news is now Informist news. This follows the acquisition of Cogencis Information Services Ltd. by NSE Data & Analytics Ltd., a 100% subsidiary of the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. As a part of the transaction, the news department of Cogencis has been sold to Informist Media Pvt. Ltd.
Informist Media Tel +91 (22) 6985-4000
Send comments to feedback@informistmedia.com
© Informist Media Pvt. Ltd. 2026. All rights reserved.
To read more please subscribe
Share this Story:
