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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026

MUMBAI – Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions are likely to return later this month or during the Southern Hemisphere's early autumn, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said in its fortnightly report on Tuesday. In the Southern Hemisphere, autumn spans from March to June. Some international climate models suggest a possible development of El Nino in June, the bureau said. However, the prediction has a very long lead time, and forecasts made for events beyond autumn are highly uncertain, the bureau said. 

The La Nina event continues to weaken, the bureau said. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have been fluctuating around the La Nina threshold since late January, with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation index value largely steady at (−)0.77 degrees Celsius. Recent warming in the sub-surface suggests a further decline of La Nina in the coming weeks, the bureau said. Atmospheric indicators such as trade winds, pressure, and cloud patterns in the tropical Pacific are consistent with borderline La Nina conditions. 

Ocean surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific between (-)0.80 degrees Celsius and 0.80 degrees Celsius are considered to be neutral conditions, while sustained values below (-)0.8 degrees Celsius for at least three months are considered indicative of a La Nina event. Sustained values above 0.8 degrees Celsius are associated with an El Nino event.

As of Sunday, the 30-day Southern Oscillation Index value was 10.9, above the La Nina threshold of 7, the bureau said. The Southern Oscillation Index tracks the atmospheric part of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparing the difference from average air pressure in the western Pacific, measured in Darwin, Australia, to the difference from average pressure in the central Pacific, measured in Tahiti.

These changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean are consistent with the forecast by other international climate models, which for some months have indicated a general easing of La Nina during the latter part of the Southern Hemisphere summer, which is from December to March. 

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation refers to the fluctuation between El Nino and La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Nino is linked to drier and hotter weather in India, while La Nina results in more favourable rainfall. 

The Indian Ocean Dipole continues to be neutral. As of Sunday, the Indian Ocean Dipole index was 0.40 degrees Celsius, matching the positive threshold of 0.4 degrees Celsius. However, the Indian Ocean Dipole is typically neutral from December to April, and these positive values are not expected to be sustained, the bureau said. The bureau's model forecasts the Indian Ocean Dipole to remain neutral till at least the end of autumn, it said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole is the difference in surface temperatures between the eastern and western tropical Indian Ocean. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole leads to less rainfall in India, while a positive index leads to more rainfall and a neutral phase signals no significant change in precipitation. For monitoring the index, the bureau considers sustained values above 0.4 degrees Celsius for at least eight weeks as typical of a positive index and values below (−)0.4 degrees Celsius for the same duration as typical of a negative index.

According to the India Meteorological Department, La Nina conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific, with sea surface temperatures being below normal over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The Indian bureau said there's a 75% chance of La Nina conditions transitioning into neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions in Feb-Mar.  End

Reported by Shreya Shetty

Edited by Avishek Dutta

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