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Informist, Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady amid lack of cues on Tuesday as dollar demand from oil marketing companies was offset by banks' dollar sales for foreign fund inflows, dealers said. The dollar also remained firm due to caution ahead of the release of minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting scheduled Wednesday, which weighed on the local currency, they said.    

 

"Very small trades as everyone is waiting for the (FOMC) minutes tomorrow (Wednesday) to show how many rate cuts can be expected there (in the US)," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "If there are two or more rate cuts visible in the minutes, the dollar will fall," he said. 

 

After trading in a very narrow band of 13 paise during the day, the rupee settled at 90.6725 on Tuesday, largely unchanged from 90.6500 on Monday. The rupee touched an intraday low of 90.7825, a whisker away from the key technical support level of 90.80 a dollar.

 

Other Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as volumes were lacklustre due to holidays for the Lunar New Year celebrations. Markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea were also shut Tuesday.

 

Dealers said foreign banks sold the greenback for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which supported the rupee. Foreign investors have invested over $1.3 billion into Indian equities so far this month. The benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 indices ended up 0.2?ch on Tuesday. 

 

The dollar held on to its gains on Tuesday as market participants awaited data scheduled for later this week for cues regarding the possible timing of interest rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve, which weighed on the local currency, dealers said. At 1545 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.12, compared with 97.10 Monday and 96.88 Friday. The index rose to 97.16 on Friday.

 

Dealers said some oil marketing companies also bought the greenback as prices of crude oil surged due to tensions between the US and Iran. Oil prices rose over 1% Monday as investors considered the impact of the imminent US-Iran discussions intended to reduce tensions amid anticipated supply boosts. The two nations began a second round of discussions in Geneva on Tuesday regarding Tehran's nuclear programme. 

 

The rupee was pressured by higher dollar-rupee levels in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said. The rupee was at INR 90.87 in the non-deliverable forwards market overnight, around 18 paise lower than the spot market at open.  

 

The local currency has fluctuated within a tight range over the last two sessions, as any slight increase attracts enough dollar demand from importers and speculators, while any drop is approached with caution due to concern that the Reserve Bank of India may intervene in the spot market. 

 

The caution arises out of the RBI's surprise dollar sales before the spot market opened last week to push the rupee higher, leading to expectations that the central bank will protect from breaching 91-a-dollar level, dealers said.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6725	90.6900	90.6500	90.7825	90.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	233.21	235.71	235.71	233.21	232.17

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady Tuesday due to lack of cues as market participants are waiting for the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee's meeting held on Jan. 28, dealers said. US Treasury yields also did not provide any cues as US markets were shut Monday. The minutes will be released Wednesday.

 

Some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, which supported the premiums, dealers said.  However, excess rupee liquidity in the banking system may weigh on premiums, they said.

 

Market participants are waiting for cues on the likely timing of the expected Fed rate cuts, with minutes from the Fed's last meeting, due Wednesday, and advance US GDP figures, due Friday.

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.56%, unchanged from the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 233.21 paise, against 221.17 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Wednesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies ahead of the release of FOMC minutes, dealers said. They expect the RBI to continue preventing a sharp depreciation of the Indian unit, after its active intervention last Thursday. 

 

However, they expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee, which may weigh on the Indian unit. They will also be watchful of support for the Indian currency from foreign portfolio inflows into domestic markets.

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.40-90.80 against the dollar Wednesday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 90.80.

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India Rupee - World FX: Sterling down on weak UK labour data; dlr holds firm

 

	AT 1503 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3593	1.3639	1.3553	1.3629
EUR/USD	1.1848	1.1856	1.1829	1.1851
NZD/USD	0.6039	0.6040	0.6020	0.6032
AUD/USD	0.7071	0.7076	0.7047	0.7070
USD/JPY	152.8610	153.7520	152.7060	153.5180
USD/CAD	1.3642	1.3653	1.3633	1.3634
EUR/JPY	181.1050	182.1690	180.8260	181.9521
CHF/USD	1.2997	1.3008	1.2976	1.2991
EUR/CHF	0.9115	0.9130	0.9107	0.9120

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling was down 0.3% against the dollar as UK data published Tuesday showed an unforeseen rise in unemployment for December, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to further reduce borrowing costs.

 

The UK ILO Unemployment Rate increased to 5.2% in the three months ended December, marking its highest point in almost five years, contrary to market projection of a stable 5.1% figure. The Claimant Count Rate increased to 28,600 in January, up from 2,700 in December, while the employment change fell to 52,000 from 82,000 the month before.

 

The dollar held on to its gains on Tuesday as markets anticipated data scheduled later this week for cues regarding the possible timing of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve. At 1501 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.10, compared with 97.10 Monday and 96.88 Friday. The index rose to 97.16 on Friday.

 

The yen was up 0.4% against the dollar. The yen recovered and reduced its losses from the previous day as disappointing Japanese economic data heightened expectations of increased government stimulus.

 

Market participants await economic data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. The Federal Open Market Committee will release minutes of its January meeting on Wednesday. Other key data points this week include inflation readings for the UK, Canada, and Japan, as well as preliminary readings of global business activity on Friday. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee:Tad dn tracking NDF fall; dlr recovery, rise in oil prices weigh

 

	AT 1414 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7125	90.6900	90.6600	90.7825	90.6500

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was slightly lower against the dollar on Tuesday tracking a fall in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said. The rupee was at INR 90.87 in the non-deliverable forwards market overnight, around 15 paise lower than the spot market. 

 

"There was slight pressure from NDF, other than that no major movement is seen," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Even regular importer-exporter trade is subdued today (Tuesday)," he said. 

 

The rupee traded in a narrow range of 13 paise so far Tuesday. The local currency has fluctuated within a tight range over the last two sessions, as any slight increase attracts enough dollar demand from importers and speculators, while any drop is approached with caution due to concern that the Reserve Bank of India may intervene. 

 

The caution arises out of the RBI's surprise dollar sales before the spot market opened last week to push rupee higher, giving way to expectations that the RBI will protect from breaching 91 a dollar level, dealers said.

 

A recovery in the dollar index also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. The dollar held on to its gains on Tuesday as markets anticipated data scheduled for later this week for cues regarding the possible timing of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve, dealers said. 

 

Dealers said some oil marketing companies also bought the greenback as prices of the commodity surged due to tensions between the US and Iran. However, dollar sales for foriegn fund inflows into local equities supported the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums steady on lack of cues ahead of FOMC minutes, US GDP

 

	AT 1257 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7575	90.6900	90.6600	90.7825	90.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	234.21	235.71	235.71	234.21	232.17

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady Tuesday due to lack of cues as market participants are waiting for the minutes of the US Federal Open Market Committee meeting held on Jan. 28, dealers said. US Treasury yields also did not provide any cues as US markets were shut Monday. The minutes will be released Wednesday.

 

"There is no movement in spot and so the direction of the movement is not clear, which is leading to a stillness in the market," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

Some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, which supported the premiums, dealers said.  However, excess rupee liquidity in the banking system may weigh on premiums, they said.

 

Market participants are waiting for cues on the likely timing of the expected Fed rate cuts, with minutes from the Fed's last meeting and advance US GDP figures due.

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.57% at 1257 IST, unchanged from Monday's close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 234.21 paise, against 232.17 paise Monday. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 17

 

MUMBAI – At 1141 IST, the rupee was at 90.7650 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.6900 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.6500 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	90.90	90.75	90.25	90.10
Foreign bank	91.00	90.80	90.30	90.00
Brokerage firm	91.20	91.00	90.20	90.00
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.00	90.20	89.60

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Tad down on bks' dollar buys for importers; dlr recovery weighs

 

	AT 0950 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7450	90.6900	90.6600	90.7650	90.6500
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	234.29	235.71	235.71	234.29	232.17

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was lower against the dollar on Tuesday as banks bought the greenback on behalf of importers who were way of further depreciation of the Indian unit, dealers said. "It's a dull market, just regular importer buying," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Some information from US-Iran is awaited, market will move after that," he said. 

 

Dealers said some oil marketing companies also bought the greenback as prices of the commodity surged due to tensions between the US and Iran. The two nations are set to hold a second round of discussions in Geneva on Tuesday regarding Tehran's nuclear programme. Ahead of the discussions with Washington, facilitated by Oman, Iran's foreign minister held a meeting with the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN nuclear oversight body, on Monday.

 

A recovery in the dollar index also weighed on the local currency, dealers said. The dollar held on to its gains on Tuesday as markets anticipated data scheduled for later this week for cues regarding the possible timing of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve, dealers said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed amid dull volumes on Lunar New Year holidays

 

MUMBAI – Asian currencies moved on a mixed note against the dollar as volumes were lacklustre due to holidays for the Lunar New Year. Markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea are shut on Tuesday for Lunar New Year celebrations.

 

A rise in the dollar weighed on the currencies. The dollar held on to its gains on Tuesday as markets anticipated data scheduled later this week for cues regarding the possible timing of interest rate reductions by the Federal Reserve.

 

At 0852 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.12, compared with 97.10 Monday and 96.88 Friday. The index rose to 97.16 on Friday.

 

The Indonesian rupiah was down 0.2% against the dollar while the Taiwan dollar and the South Korean won were down 0.2%. The Malaysian ringgit was up 0.2%, while the Phillipine peso was up 0.1%. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 17

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Tuesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.85	90.30
Private-sector bank	90.85	90.45
Private-sector bank	91.00	90.30
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.20
Brokerage firm	90.95	90.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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