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Informist, Monday, Feb. 16, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended steady against the dollar on Monday due to low volumes resulting from a holiday in the US, dealers said. The US markets are shut on account of President's Day.

 

"Absolutely nothing in the market today (Monday). There was some regular business, inflows and importers were active, but there was no volume to play around with," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

After trading in a very narrow band of 11 paise during the day, the rupee settled at 90.6500 on Monday, largely unchanged from 90.6350 on Friday. The 11-paise band, in which the rupee traded throughout the day, was the narrowest since Jan. 5.

 

The dollar index remained steady for the first half of trade but inched up during European market hours. The dollar index rose despite lower-than-expected inflation numbers from the US. At 1525 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.00, compared with 96.88 Friday and 96.92 Thursday. The index had risen to 97.16 Friday.

 

According to the US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the country's CPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in January after rising 0.3% in December, unchanged from November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the CPI to rise 0.3% in January. On an annual basis, the CPI rose 2.4%. The decline in the annual inflation rate from 2.7% in December was mainly because of last year's elevated figures being excluded from the computation. 

 

Dealers said some banks bought the greenback on behalf of importers who feared further depreciation of the rupee, which weighed on the Indian currency. However, some banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which supported the local currency. The benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 indices ended up 0.8?ch on Monday.

 

Other Asian currencies fell 0.2-0.4% against the dollar on Monday, which also weighed on the Indian unit. 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6500	90.6200	90.6075	90.7175	90.6350
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	232.17	232.67	233.02	231.67	228.09

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures, tracking a sharp fall in US Treasury yields, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell Friday as the rise in the country's consumer inflation in January was lower than expected, fuelling hope of at least two rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in calendar year 2026.

 

Some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. 

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.56%, higher than the previous close of 2.51%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 232.17 paise, against 227.59 paise Friday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Tuesday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies, dealers said. They expect the RBI to continue preventing a sharp depreciation of the Indian unit, after its active intervention since Thursday. 

 

However, they expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee, which may weigh on the Indian unit. They will also be watchful of support for the Indian currency from foreign portfolio inflows into domestic markets. Foreign investors have invested over $1.8 billion in Indian equities so far this February. 

    90.80.

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen dn on lower-than-estimated Japan GDP; dlr steady

 

	AT 1524 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3646	1.3662	1.3636	1.3650
EUR/USD	1.1863	1.1874	1.1857	1.1868
NZD/USD	0.6039	0.6048	0.6023	0.6038
AUD/USD	0.7082	0.7097	0.7061	0.7076
USD/JPY	153.5880	153.6140	152.6430	152.7010
USD/CAD	1.3619	1.3624	1.3604	1.3613
EUR/JPY	182.2000	182.2450	181.1936	181.2559
CHF/USD	1.2998	1.3022	1.2996	1.3010
EUR/CHF	0.9127	0.9131	0.9115	0.9120

 

MUMBAI – The yen was 0.4% lower against the dollar as the GDP data from Japan was lower than market expectations. GDP expanded slightly in the fourth quarter of 2025, recovering from a significant contraction in the prior period. Japan's economy expanded 0.1% in the December quarter compared to the previous three-month period, just evading a technical recession, typically defined as two successive quarters of negative growth.

 

Although it marked a turnaround from the 0.7% contraction in the third quarter, the GDP print fell short of economists' expectations of a 0.4% increase, according to a Reuters poll. 

 

The dollar rose Monday despite lower-than-expected inflation numbers from the US. At 1525 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.00, compared with 96.88 Friday and 96.92 Thursday. The index had risen to 97.16 Friday.

 

According to the US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the country's CPI rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in January after rising 0.3% in December, unchanged from November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the CPI to rise 0.3% in January. On an annual basis, the CPI rose 2.4%. The decline in the annual inflation rate from 2.7% in December was mainly because of last year's elevated figures being excluded from the computation. 

 

The pound sterling was largely unchanged against the dollar. Investors await the publication of the UK's latest inflation and employment figures later this week. If these numbers bolster expectations for an imminent interest rate cut from the Bank of England, the sterling is likely to drop. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee:Stays steady on lack of major cues; importers' dollar buys weigh

 

	AT 1420 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6350	90.6200	90.6075	90.7175	90.6350
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	232.17	232.67	233.02	231.67	228.09

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar Monday as volume in the market remains dull owing to a holiday in the US, dealers said. US markets are shut for Presidents' Day. The rupee has moved in a narrow range of 10 paise so far. 

 

"It's normal buy-on-dips and nothing more because there is no volume today," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. Dealers said market reaction to various data releases Monday will only be apparent Tuesday.

 

The dollar inched up a little during European trade, which weighed on the rupee, dealers said. The dollar rose despite lower than expected inflation numbers from the US, they said. At 1418 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.99, compared with 96.88 Friday and 96.92 Thursday. The index had risen to 97.16 Friday.

 

According to the US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the country's CPI rose 0.2% in January after rising 0.3% in December, unchanged from November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the CPI to rise 0.3% in January. On an annual basis, the CPI rose 2.4%. The decline in the annual inflation rate from 2.7% in December was mainly because of last year's elevated figures being excluded from the computation. 

 

Dealers said some banks bought the greenback on behalf of importers who feared further depreciation of the rupee, which weighed on the Indian currency. However, some banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which supported the local currency. At 1420 IST, the benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.4?ch. For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums up as lower than expected US CPI pushes yields down

 

	AT 1316 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6975	90.6200	90.6100	90.7500	90.6350
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	232.67	232.67	233.02	231.67	228.09

 

MUMBAI - Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures tracking a sharp fall in US Treasury yields, dealers said. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell Friday as the rise in the country's consumer inflation was lower than expected in January, fuelling hope of at least two rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve in calendar 2026.

 

"US CPI has taken the market (dollar-rupee premiums) higher as the differential is expected to widen further," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.

 

According to the US Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in January after rising 0.3% in December, unchanged from November. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the CPI to rise 0.3% in January. On an annual basis, the CPI rose 2.4%. The decline in annual inflation rate from 2.7% in December was mainly because of last year's elevated figures being excluded from the computation.

 

Some banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, which supported the rupee, dealers said. 

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.57% at 1313 IST, higher than Friday's close of 2.51%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 232.67 paise, against 227.59 paise Friday.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 16

 

MUMBAI – At 1149 IST, the rupee was at 90.7100 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.6200 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.6350 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	90.90	90.75	90.25	90.10
Foreign bank	-	90.80	90.30	-
Brokerage firm	91.20	91.00	90.20	90.00
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.00	90.20	89.60

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Steady on lack of cues due to US holiday; FX inflows support

 

	AT 0947 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6750	90.6200	90.6100	90.6850	90.6350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady against the dollar Monday on lack of major cues as volumes in the currency market were dull due to a holiday in the US, dealer said. US markets are hut on Monday for Presidents' Day.

 

"US holiday has caused thin volumes. So, not expecting much action," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "However, due to thin liquidity, any large flow can drive the market," he said. 

 

The dollar index remained firm despite lower than expected inflation data from the US, which weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in January following an unchanged 0.3% rise in December. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted that the CPI would rise 0.3%. On an annual basis, the CPI rose 2.4%. The decline in the annual inflation rate from 2.7% in December mainly resulted from last year's elevated figures being excluded from the computation.

 

At 0907 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.95, compared with 96.88 Friday and 96.92 Thursday. The index rose to 97.16 on Friday.

 

However, some banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which supported the local currency. At 0943 IST, the benchmark Sensex and Nifty 50 were up 0.1?ch. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down as dlr unch after lower-than-view US CPI

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies were down against the dollar as the greenback remained unchanged despite inflation in the US falling more than expected. Volume in the currency market was also subdued as US markets were shut for Presidents' Day holiday.

 

According to the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Consumer Price Index increased 0.2% in January following an unchanged 0.3% rise in December. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted that the CPI would rise 0.3%. On an annual basis, the CPI rose 2.4%. The decline in the annual inflation rate from 2.7% in December mainly resulted from last year's elevated figures being excluded from the computation.

 

At 0907 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.95, compared with 96.88 Friday and 96.92 Thursday. The index rose to 97.16 on Friday.

 

The South Korean won was down 0.2% against the dollar, continuing losses from the prior session as ongoing capital outflows negatively impacted sentiment. Focus has shifted to the National Pension Service, as the large state fund is anticipated to reevaluate its foreign exchange hedging and international investment approach.

 

The Thai baht was down 0.2% against the dollar. GDP data from the region showed Thailand's economy expanded 2.4% in 2025, down from 2.9% the year before, while maintaining its growth trend for five straight years. Lagging behind regional counterparts since the pandemic, growth has been limited by ongoing challenges such as US tariffs, high household debt, and a stronger baht. 

 

Bucking the trend, the offshore Chinese yuan rose 0.2% to about 6.89 against the dollar Monday, reaching a new 34-month peak, as mainland markets began the week-long Lunar New Year holiday, transferring price discovery to offshore markets.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 16

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Monday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.85	90.30
Private-sector bank	90.78	90.38
Private-sector bank	90.80	90.30
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.20
Brokerage firm	90.75	90.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Tanima Banerjee

 

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