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Informist, Friday, Feb. 13, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its day's low against the dollar as traders cut their long dollar positions during the last leg of trade, noting the Reserve Bank of India's active intervention through dollar sales, dealers said. The Indian unit was weighed by dollar purchases for importers and foreign portfolio investors, they said. 

 

"Market was long (dollar), but rupee was not falling, so people started cutting those positions by the end of the day," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. After hitting a low of 90.7525 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 90.6350 on Friday, against 90.5900 on Thursday.

 

The rupee started the day lower against the dollar as banks bought dollars to cover maturing positions in the non-deliverable forwards market, dealers said. Further, the Indian unit was also down weighed by banks' dollar purchases on behalf of FPIs, who wanted to withdraw funds from Indian equities, dealers said. Domestic equities slumped on Friday, tracking a decline in equity markets globally. Both the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended 1.3% lower each. 

 

"There was risk off mood in the market since morning," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "That sort of took the rupee lower initially and then buying (of dollars) on dips (in dollar-rupee) was there."

 

Dealers said banks continuously bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee, dealers said. Meanwhile, the RBI likely stepped in to sell dollars around 90.75 a dollar, which kept a lid on the rupee's losses, they said. The central bank had intervened in the currency market on Thursday as well, particularly intervening heavily in the offshore NDF segment, they said. 

 

"It seems like the RBI is again letting the rupee fall slowly and steadily, ensuring they are there to manage sharp moves," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "I am expecting 91.00 to happen gradually next week, looking at the current pace of fall."

 

Noting the central bank's active defence of the rupee around 90.75, traders trimmed their long dollar positions, which helped the Indian unit erase some of its losses, dealers said. 

 

Meanwhile, the dollar index edged higher ahead of the release of US inflation data later in the day, which is likely to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. This also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. At 1455 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.02, compared with 96.92 Thursday and 96.91 Wednesday. The index rose to 97.16 earlier in the day.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6350	90.6700	90.5975	90.7525	90.5900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	227.59	223.10	228.91	223.10	225.59

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums ended higher across most tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, dealers said.

 

A fall in US Treasury yields also supported the forward premiums, dealers said. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell 9 basis points on Thursday as data showed weaker-than-expected growth in housing sales in the US. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.09% Thursday from 4.18% Wednesday. 

 

Market participants now await the release of US CPI data for January, due later Friday. At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.51%, higher than the previous close of 2.49%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 227.59 paise, against 225.59 paise Thursday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Monday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies after the release of the US CPI data, dealers said. They expect the RBI to continue preventing sharp depreciation of the Indian unit, after its active intervention since Thursday. 

 

However, they expect importers to continue buying dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee, which may weigh on the Indian unit. They will also be watchful of support for the Indian currency from foreign portfolio inflows into domestic markets. So far in February, FPIs have net infused $2.42 billion into domestic markets. 

 

"Rupee has been vulnerable despite the US-India trade deal whose conditions have been fully factored in by the market," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. "A crossover of 90.75 can see rupee moving back to 91.00 levels while below this level we can see it going back to 90.05 though bids for dollar will come at every downtick." 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.40-90.80 against the dollar Monday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 90.80.

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India Rupee - World FX: Dollar index tad up ahead of US CPI data; euro down

 

	AT 1455 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3624	1.3629	1.3591	1.3622
EUR/USD	1.1863	1.1873	1.1847	1.1871
NZD/USD	0.6040	0.6042	0.6015	0.6032
AUD/USD	0.7075	0.7097	0.7044	0.7089
USD/JPY	153.6210	153.6510	152.6700	152.7330
USD/CAD	1.3601	1.3637	1.3601	1.3609
EUR/JPY	182.2380	182.2520	181.2067	181.2900
CHF/USD	1.2995	1.3012	1.2957	1.2998
EUR/CHF	0.9129	0.9145	0.9122	0.9134

 

MUMBAI – The dollar index edged higher ahead of the release of US inflation data later in the day, which is likely to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate outlook. The CPI is likely to have increased 0.3% in January after a similar rise in December, a Reuters poll of economists estimated. In the 12 months through January, the CPI is forecast to have advanced 2.5% on year, slowing from 2.7% in December, the poll said. 

 

Data on Thursday showed a less-than-expected decline in the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment, in line with economists' view that the labour market was stabilising. This was after data Wednesday showed US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January. 

 

Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in a 92% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged at its next meeting, although the probability of a rate cut at its June meeting is now at nearly 50%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. At 1455 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.00, compared with 96.92 Thursday and 96.91 Wednesday. The index rose to 97.16 earlier in the day. 

 

The Japanese yen was down 0.5% but was set for a strong weekly close against the dollar, boosted by optimism over Sunday's landslide election victory by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party. Further, Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura said on Friday that Japan was "very close" to durably achieving the central bank's 2% inflation target, signalling the chance of an interest rate hike in the coming months.

 

The euro fell 0.1% against the greenback. Data released Friday showed German wholesale prices rose 1.2% in January compared with the same month last year. The pound sterling was steady against the US unit. 

 

The Australian dollar was down 0.2% against the greenback but hovered close to a three-year high owing to hawkish comments by central bank officials. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock Thursday said that the central bank would raise rates again if inflation becomes entrenched. The comment came after the central bank delivered its first rate hike in two years last week. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Premiums up as importers buy forward dollars, US yields fall

 

	AT 1255 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7300	90.6700	90.6400	90.7475	90.5900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	228.09	223.10	228.91	223.10	225.59

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, fearing further weakness in the rupee, dealers said. On Friday, the rupee fell to a low of 90.7475 against the dollar, with the Reserve Bank of India likely stepping in to prevent further losses, dealers said. 

 

"Despite RBI's intervention to push rupee higher yesterday (Thursday), we are seeing constant buying (of dollars) in spot," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "The depreciation bias is very much there (for rupee), which is why importers are hedging." On Thursday, the rupee surged to a high of 90.4275 a dollar in early trade as the RBI unexpectedly sold dollars aggressively in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. 

 

A fall in US Treasury yields also supported the forward premiums, dealers said. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note fell 9 basis points on Thursday as data showed weaker-than-expected growth in housing sales in the US. The 10-year US bond yield fell to 4.09% Thursday from 4.18% Wednesday. 

 

Market participants now await the release of US CPI data for January, due later Friday. At 1255 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee      

 

At 1255 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.51%, higher than the previous close of 2.49%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 228.09 paise, against 225.59 paise Thursday. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee:Remains sharply down as importers, FPIs buy dlrs; RBI limits fall

 

	AT 1215 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7400	90.6700	90.6400	90.7475	90.5900

 

MUMBAI – The rupee remained sharply lower against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of importers and foreign portfolio investors, dealers said. However, the Indian unit's losses were limited as the Reserve Bank of India likely intervened through dollar sales, they said. 

 

"There is a lot of demand (for dollars) in the market. Importers are hedging and equities are also quite negative," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "But there is resistance seen around 90.75, so levels are just there."

 

Banks bought dollars on behalf of importers, fearing further depreciation in the rupee, dealers said. FPIs, meanwhile, bought the greenback to pull out funds from domestic equities, they said. At 1215 IST, the Sensex and Nifty 50 were down 0.9?ch. Some banks also bought dollars to cover maturing positions in the non-deliverable forwards market, which weighed on the Indian unit, they said. 

 

The RBI likely intervened through dollar sales around 90.74 a dollar, in order to prevent further depreciation in the local unit, dealers said. "90.75 seems to be holding for now. If it breaks, I am expecting 91.00 to happen very soon," a dealer at a private sector bank said. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.50 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.80 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 13

 

MUMBAI – At 1120 IST, the rupee was at 90.7250 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.6700 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.5900 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	90.90	90.75	90.25	90.10
Foreign bank	-	90.80	90.30	-
Brokerage firm	91.20	91.00	90.20	90.00
Brokerage firm	92.00	91.00	90.20	89.60

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Tad down as dlr firm before US CPI; importers' dlr buys weigh

 

	AT 0934 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6650	90.6700	90.6400	90.6950	90.5900
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	225.09	223.10	225.09	223.10	225.59

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was slightly lower against the dollar on Friday as the dollar remained firm ahead of the release of US inflation data for January, dealers said. "Slight pressure ahead of US CPI, importers are hedging so it (dollar-rupee) will remain up but 75 (90.75) should hold," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

Market participants await the release of US CPI data for January, due later Friday. Both headline inflation and core CPI are expected to rise around 0.3% on month and 2.5% on year. This reading would represent a slight uptick from last month.

 

The dollar also remained firm supported by a lower-than-expected reading of jobless claims. The Labor Department announced that initial unemployment insurance claims were at 227,000 for the week ended Feb. 7. Although that number was 5,000 lower than the total from the previous week, it exceeded the 225,000 claims anticipated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. 

 

Dealers said importers bought dollars as they expect the greenback to appreciate after the release of the inflation data, which weighed on the local unit. Further, banks bought dollars for outflows from local equities which also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Domestic shares fell tracking sharp fall on Wall Street on Thursday. At 0953 IST, both the Nifty 50 and Sensex traded nearly 1% lower.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.40 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar and support at 90.80. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most down; Taiwan dlr slumps post trade deal with US

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar on Friday as the greenback remained firm on the back of mixed data from the US. Caution before the release of US CPI data later on Friday supported the dollar. At 0914 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.94, compared with 96.92 Thursday and 96.91 Wednesday.

 

Market participants await the release of US CPI data for January, due later Friday. Both headline and core CPI are expected to rise around 0.3% on month and 2.5% on year. This reading would represent a slight uptick from last month.

 

The Taiwan dollar was down 0.2% against the greenback after details of a trade deal with the US were announced Thursday. Officials from the Trump administration finalised a reciprocal trade pact that established a 15% tariff rate on imports from Taiwan, while requiring Taiwan to follow a timetable for removing or reducing tariffs on almost all US products.

 

The document published by the US Trade Representative's office on Thursday also obligates Taiwan to increase its purchases of US products from 2025 to 2029, which includes $44.4 billion in liquefied natural gas and crude oil, $15.2 billion in civil aircraft and engines, $25.2 billion in power grid equipment and generators, as well as marine and steelmaking equipment. The deal will need approval by Taiwan's parliament, where the opposition has a majority.

 

The Thai baht was down 0.1% against the dollar but stayed close to its peak since March 2021, with market sentiment strengthened by the Bhumjaithai Party's election success. Investors view the party's clear victory as a possible conclusion to Thailand's extended phase of unstable coalition governments, which has hindered economic growth and led to local markets trailing behind regional counterparts

 

The South Korean won was down 0.2% against the greenback. Money supply in the domestic market increased by 23.4 trillion Korean won in December last year compared to the previous month. This figure marks a shift back to growth after declining for the first time in eight months in November last year, only to turn around again after a month.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 13

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.80	90.50
Private-sector bank	90.85	90.45
Private-sector bank	90.80	90.30
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.30
Brokerage firm	90.95	90.45

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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