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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026

 

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--India Jan new series CPI inflation 2.75% 
--Informist Poll estimated Jan CPI inflation based on new series at 2.8% 
--Informist Poll estimated Jan CPI inflation based on old series at 2.5% 
--CONTEXT: Govt releases new series CPI inflation with 2024 base year 
--India Jan new series CPI food inflation 2.13% 
--India Jan new series CPI food and beverages inflation 2.11% 
--India Jan new series CPI housing and utilities inflation 1.53% 
--India Jan new series CPI 'paan, tobacco, and intoxicants' inflation 2.86% 
--India Jan new series CPI clothing and footwear inflation 2.98% 
--India Jan new series CPI furnishings, household equipment inflation 1.45% 
--India Jan new series CPI health inflation 2.19% 
--India Jan new series CPI transport inflation 0.09% 
--India Jan new series CPI information and communication inflation 0.16% 
--India Jan new series CPI 'recreation, sport, and culture' inflation 2.32% 
--India Jan new series CPI educational services inflation 3.35% 
--India Jan new series CPI restaurants, accommodation svcs inflation 2.87% 
--India Jan new series CPI personal care and miscellaneous inflation 19.02% 
--India Jan new series CPI rural inflation 2.73% 
--India Jan new series CPI urban inflation 2.77% 
--India Jan new series CPI general index up 0.3% on month 
--India Jan new series CPI food price index down 0.05% on month 
--India Jan new series CPI onion inflation -29.27% 
--India Jan new series CPI potato inflation -28.98% 
--India Jan new series CPI gold, diamond, platinum jewellery inflation 46.77%

 

MUMBAI – Retail prices in India rose on a year-on-year basis in the first month of 2026 with the new series showing CPI inflation at 2.75% in January. The new series is based on 2024 prices as the base year has shifted to this year from 2012 in the old series.  

 

At 2.75%, January CPI inflation based on the new series was in line with expectations. According to an Informist Poll, January CPI inflation as per the 2024 series was expected to be 2.8%. Based on the old CPI series, inflation was expected at 2.5% for January, higher than 1.33% in December.

 

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Thursday released inflation data based on the new CPI series. This is the first revision of the CPI in 11 years, a key macroeconomic indicator used by the Reserve Bank of India to measure price changes. The new series tracks prices of 358 items, sharpy up from 299 items that the old series tracked. 

 

Food inflation was 2.13% in January as per the new series, much higher than (-)2.71% in December based on the old series. Food and beverages inflation was 2.11% last month, according to the 2024 series. Garlic had the lowest inflation in January at (-)53.05%. Onion inflation was at (-)29.27% last month while potato inflation was (-)28.98%. The weightage of 'food and beverages' will fall to 36.8% in the 2024 series from 45.9% in the old series.

 

Headline inflation was driven by the 'personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services' category, where inflation was 19.02% in January. Silvery jewellery had the highest inflation in January at 159.67%, followed by tomato at 64.80%. Gold, diamond, and platinum jewellery inflation was 46.77% last month. 

 

Headline inflation rose above the lower end of the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band of 2-6% for the first time since August. Inflation, however, was below the RBI's medium-term target of 4% for the 12th month in a row, based on the new series January print and old series numbers.

 

The general index rose 0.3% on month in January based on the new series while the food price index down 0.05% on month. Urban inflation was higher in January in the new series compared with rural inflation. New series CPI rural inflation was 2.73% in January while urban inflation was 2.77%.

"While details are still awaited, the core inflation looks significantly lower than our expectations," Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, said. "While inflation trajectory remains fairly benign, we believe RBI's rate cutting cycle has come to an end, with the RBI likely to continue to hold rates on pause for an extended period through CY26 at least."

 

The new CPI series marks a substantial change in how price changes are captured, with revised weights derived from the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey 2023–24 (Aug-Jul), some items added and some removed, and updated methodologies.

 

The old CPI series had six groups--'food and beverages', 'pan, tobacco, and intoxicants', 'clothing and footwear', housing, 'fuel and light', and miscellaneous. The new series has 12 divisions--'clothing and footwear'; education services; 'food and beverages'; 'furnishings, household equipment, and routine household maintenance'; health; 'housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels'; 'information and communication'; 'paan, tobacco, and intoxicants'; 'personal care, social protection, and miscellaneous goods and services'; 'recreation, sport, and culture'; 'restaurants and accommodation services'; and transport.

 

Housing and utilities inflation was 1.53% in January and 'paan, tobacco, and intoxicants' inflation was 2.86%. Clothing and footwear inflation was 2.98% last month while transport inflation was 0.09%. 

 

Economists estimated core inflation around 3.3-3.6% in January, as per the new CPI series. The weights of non-food and non-fuel items, or items that make up core inflation, have increased in the 2024 CPI series. Economists estimate the weight for core inflation to be around 55-57%, up sharply from 47% in the old series. Core inflation, based on the old CPI series, was 4.6% in December.

 

"The new CPI series suggests that food inflation is higher while core inflation is more moderate than anticipated for January. Indicators like housing inflation also confirm that inflationary pressures in the segment do not show any spikes," said Sakshi Gupta, principal economist, HDFC Bank. "On the positive side, for core inflation, both housing and personal care and effects--influenced by gold and silver prices--show a more moderate print compared with the earlier series."

 

The following table details the general index of the CPI and inflation for January:

 

	Weight	Index for January	Inflation for January
Food and beverages	36.75	104.03	2.11%
Paan, tobacco and intoxicants	2.99	104.42	2.86%
Clothing and footwear	6.38	105.92	2.98%
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels	17.67	102.02	1.53%
Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance	4.47	102.97	1.45%
Health	6.10	103.91	2.19%
Transport	8.80	100.64	0.09%
Information and communication	3.61	103.3	0.16%
Recreation, sport and culture	1.52	104.03	2.32%
Education services	3.33	105.33	3.35%
Restaurants and accommodation services	3.35	105.71	2.87%
Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services	5.04	122.63	19.02%
Consumer Food Price Index	34.78	104.04	2.13%
All India	100	104.46	2.75%

 

End

 

Reported by Shubham Rana

Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury

 

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