India Rupee Review
Ends up but pares gains as oil cos, importers buy dlrs
This story was originally published at 16:45 IST on 12 February 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026
By Pratiksha
MUMBAI – The rupee ended higher against the dollar but erased a singificant portion of its gains as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. The Indian unit had risen sharply earlier in the day owing to unexpected support from the Reserve Bank of India by intervening through dollar sales, they said.
"Even after the RBI caught the market off guard by coming in the market, the market followed a similar trend. Buying (of dollars) came as usual," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
After hitting a high of 90.4275 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 90.5900 on Thursday, against 90.7000 on Wednesday. Other Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.7% against the dollar, with the South Korean won being the best performer.
The rupee started the day sharply higher against the dollar as the RBI heavily sold dollars in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. The rupee was trading around 90.72 a dollar in the NDF market a few minutes before the opening of the spot market. However, it went on to open at 90.4550 a dollar, all thanks to the RBI, dealers said.
Most dealers were puzzled by the central bank's intervention around the current levels. Some dealers said the RBI might have intervened to eliminate some build-up of speculative long dollar positions in the currency market. "It was very random that RBI intervened at these levels," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "It looks like we will see some resistance before 91.00 happens. RBI is not letting one way movements in rupee happen at all."
The RBI likely marked its presence in the spot market as well, which supported the Indian unit, dealers said. "I think RBI can carry out its aim of removing speculative positions easily now, since they have enough reserves to spend on this," a dealer at foreign bank said. "We may see more such interventions happening."
India's foreign exchange reserves rose to a record high of $723.8 billion in the week ended Jan. 30, primarily on the back of a record jump in gold holdings. Reserves rose $14.4 billion on week, the biggest weekly jump since March 2025.
However, shortly afterwards, banks stepped in to buy dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. This weighed on the Indian unit.
A fall in the dollar index also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. The dollar index largely shurgged off the stronger-than-expected jobs data and fell on the back of a rise in the Japanese yen after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party swept to a landslide victory in Sunday's elections.
The US added 130,000 jobs in January, almost double the 70,000 jobs that economists polled by Reuters had estimated, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in December. Bets of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee in June, widely expected earlier, weakened to less than 60%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.78, compared with 96.91 Wednesday and 96.89 Tuesday. The index had risen to 97.27 on Wednesday. A rise in other Asian currencies also supported the Indian unit, they said.
Meanwhile, a fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, according to dealers. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.6% and 0.7% lower, respectively.
| AT 1530 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.5900 | 90.4550 | 90.4275 | 90.6575 | 90.7000 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 225.59 | 224.45 | 228.58 | 223.93 | 228.66 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended slightly lower due to a rise in US Treasury yields after jobs data for January came in stronger than expected, denting expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in the near term, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.18% Wednesday from 4.16% Tuesday.
However, losses for the premiums were limited as banks rushed to buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the sharp appreciation of the rupee earlier in the day, dealers said.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.49%, lower than the previous close of 2.50%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 225.59 paise, against 228.66 paise Wednesday.
OUTLOOK
On Friday, the rupee is likely to take cues from movement in the dollar index and other Asian currencies after the relese of the US initial jobless claims data at 1900 IST, dealers said. Market participants will remain watchful of intervention by the RBI to lift the Indian unit after the unexpected intervention on Thursday.
They expect importers to buy dollars at every dip in the dollar-rupee, which may weigh on the Indian unit. They will also be watchful of support for the Indian currency from foreign portfolio inflows into domestic markets. So far in February, FPIs have net infused $2.08 billion into domestic markets.
"Inflows have started to trickle in the market, but it is not like a deluge of dollars so far," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "Once there is continued inflows in the market, we may see rupee appreciate sustainably."
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.30-90.80 against the dollar Friday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 90.80.
India Rupee - World FX: Sterling up vs dlr, despite UK GDP missing mkt view
| AT 1518 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3647 | 1.3654 | 1.3605 | 1.3627 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1885 | 1.1889 | 1.1853 | 1.1871 |
| NZD/USD | 0.6069 | 0.6070 | 0.6039 | 0.6046 |
| AUD/USD | 0.7117 | 0.7147 | 0.7105 | 0.7127 |
| USD/JPY | 152.8950 | 153.5480 | 152.2750 | 153.2610 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3566 | 1.3596 | 1.3566 | 1.3575 |
| EUR/JPY | 181.7250 | 182.1260 | 180.8580 | 181.9300 |
| CHF/USD | 1.3014 | 1.3018 | 1.2945 | 1.2953 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9133 | 0.9164 | 0.9133 | 0.9159 |
MUMBAI – The pound sterling rose 0.2% against the dollar even as the UK GDP for Oct-Dec was lower than expected. The UK economy expanded at a quarterly rate of 0.1% in the last three months of 2025, matching the revised growth rate of 0.1% in the September quarter. The data missed the market forecast of 0.2% growth for the reported period.
Other data from the UK showed that industrial production and manufacturing production declined 0.9% and 0.5%, respectively, over the month in December. Both readings missed market expectations.
The yen continued its surge against the dollar on Thursday and was up 0.2%, banking on the momentum from the election results in Japan. The yen has risen over 2.6% following the decisive victory of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party in Sunday's elections, and a change in sentiment appears to be emerging as markets shift their focus from spending concerns to growth.
Further, Japan's Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top forex official Atsushi Mimura said authorities are monitoring market moves "with a high sense of urgency" and remain vigilant amid renewed JPY (yen) volatility. Additionally, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated that the government would respond to currency movements in line with the US-Japan joint statement.
However, the dollar index steadied after higher-than-expected non-farm payrolls data doused expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. In the US, employers created 130,000 jobs in January, exceeding the 70,000 jobs projected by economists surveyed by Reuters, suggesting that the Federal Reserve will maintain its pause on additional rate cuts. The US unemployment rate declined to 4.3% in January from 4.4% in December.
Despite traders expecting at least one 25-basis-point reduction in June, the likelihood of rates remaining unchanged rose to 40% from 24.8%, based on the latest data from CME Group's FedWatch tool.
At 1524 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.79, compared with 96.91 Wednesday and 96.89 Tuesday. The index had risen to 97.27 on Wednesday. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Premium slightly down as US yields rise post strong jobs data
| AT 1400 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6025 | 90.4550 | 90.4275 | 90.6325 | 90.7000 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 225.59 | 224.45 | 228.58 | 224.45 | 228.66 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium fell slightly due to a rise in US Treasury yields after jobs data for January came in stronger than expected, denting expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near term, dealers said. The 10-year US bond yield rose to 4.18% Wednesday from 4.16% Tuesday.
The US added 130,000 jobs in January, almost double the 70,000 jobs that economists polled by Reuters had estimated, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in December. Bets of a rate cut by the Federal Open Market Committee in June, widely expected earlier, weakened to less than 60%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
However, losses for the premiums were limited as banks rushed to buy dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers, noting the sharp appreciation of the rupee earlier in the day, dealers said. The rupee surged to a high of 90.4275 a dollar in early trade as the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly sold dollars aggressively in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said.
"We are seeing some bit of recieving due to the US data, but it's not a lot," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "There is some paying tracking spot as well, so broadly levels are not moving much."
At 1400 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.49%, slightly lower than the previous close of 2.50%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 225.59 paise, against 228.66 paise Wednesday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Erases some gains as oil cos, importers continuously buy dlrs
| AT 1340 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6125 | 90.4550 | 90.4275 | 90.6325 | 90.7000 |
MUMBAI – The rupee erased some early gains against the dollar as banks persistently bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, dealers said. "After the unexpected movement (in rupee) intitally, buying (of dollars) came quickly in morning," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Rupee has been rangebound after that overall."
The rupee surged to a high of 90.4275 a dollar in early trade as the Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly sold dollars aggressively in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said. The central bank likely extended its support for the Indian unit in the spot market as well, they said.
"RBI tried to change the direction of the rupee out of nowhere. Nobody was expecting them to intervene," a dealer at a private-secotr bank said. "But even then, rupee has not been able to hold on to that trend (of appreciating)."
A fall in domestic equities also weighed on the Indian unit, according to dealers. At 1336 IST, the Nifty 50 and Sensex were down 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.40 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar and support at 90.80. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 12
MUMBAI – At 1045 IST, the rupee was at 90.5850 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.4550 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.7000 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.90 | 90.75 | 90.25 | 90.10 |
| Foreign bank | - | 90.95 | 90.40 | - |
| Brokerage firm | 91.20 | 91.00 | 90.20 | 90.00 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.10 | 91.00 | 90.20 | 89.50 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Surges as RBI likely sold dlrs in offshore NDF before spot open
| AT 0925 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.5575 | 90.4550 | 90.4275 | 90.5574 | 90.7000 |
MUMBAI – The rupee surged against the dollar as the Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars heavily in the offshore non-deliverable forwards market before the spot market opened, dealers said.
"It is a very random (rupee) level to intervene I feel," a dealer at a private sector bank said. "Possibly they are expecting weakness in the rupee over the weekend due to the geopolitical tensions. This seems like a pre-emptive intervention."
The rupee was trading around 90.72 a dollar in the NDF market a few minutes before the opening of the spot market. However, it went on to open at 90.4550 a dollar, all thanks to the RBI, dealers said. Some dealers said the RBI might have intervened to drive away some build-up of speculative long dollar positions in the currency market.
Market participants will now be watchful of intervention by the RBI in the spot market as well. Dealers, however, expect banks to rush to buy dollars on behalf of importers, noting the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, which may weigh on the Indian unit.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.30 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.30 a dollar. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up tracking yen's rise, domestic equities' gains
MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar Thursday, tracking strength in the Japanese yen and gains in domestic equities. The yen was up 0.6% against the dollar in early trade; it has surged over 2.6% since Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party swept to a landslide victory in Sunday's elections.
Equity indices in Asia were mostly higher in early trade, with multiple indices, including Japanese indices Nikkei and the Topix First Section, hitting record highs. The South Korean won was up 0.3% against the dollar, the most among its peers. Stocks in South Korea hit record highs in early trade, lifted by the technology sector.
Both the Taiwan dollar and the Phillipine peso were up 0.2% against the dollar, while the Chinese yuan and Malaysian ringgit were up 0.1%. Bucking the trend, the Indonesian rupiah was down 0.2%.
Meanwhile, data on Wednesday showed US job growth unexpectedly accelerated in January, denting near-term rate cut expectations by the Federal Reserve. US employers added 130,000 jobs in January, surpassing the 70,000 jobs that economists polled by Reuters had estimated. Market participants now await US inflation data, which is due on Friday, for more cues on interest rate cuts.
The dollar index rose briefly following the jobs data, but a strenthening yen limited its gains. At 0855 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.82, compared with 96.91 Wednesday and 96.89 Tuesday. The index had risen to 97.27 on Wednesday. (Pratiksha)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 12
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.83 | 90.50 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.83 | 90.45 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.80 | 90.30 |
| Foreign bank | 90.95 | 90.40 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.00 | 90.25 |
| Brokerage firm | 90.95 | 90.45 |
(Pratiksha)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Akul Nishant Akhoury
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