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Informist, Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026

 

By Kabir Sharma

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended lower against the dollar as banks persistently bought the greenback for oil marketing companies, dealers said. However, a weaker dollar across the board limited losses, they said.

 

"There was not much pressure as everyone is waiting for NFP (US non-farm payrolls data), but oilers were there because of US-Iran conflict that is going on," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "The dollar looks in trouble and so that is also supporting the rupee."

 

After opening steady and hitting a high of 90.4600 a dollar during the day, the rupee erased all gains and settled at 90.7000, against 90.5775 Tuesday. The currency moved in a broad range of 29 paise during the day.

 

In early trade, the rupee was supported by a surge in other Asian currencies. Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar as the dollar weakened after weak retail sales data from the US. Asian currencies rose 0.1-0.7% against the dollar.

 

December's flat retail sales came after a previously reported 0.6% rise in November, according to the Census Bureau of the Commerce Department Tuesday. This was against market expectations that sales would increase 0.4%.

 

The rupee moved in a narrow range of 5 paise in the early part of the day as traders exercised caution ahead of the release of key labour data from the US.

 

Investors will monitor the postponed January US jobs report, set to be released Wednesday after its publication was delayed by the partial government shutdown. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate an increase of 55,000 in payrolls for January, after management services company ADP's report last week indicated private payrolls growth of only 22,000.

 

At 1507 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.58, compared with 96.89 Tuesday and 96.87 Monday.

 

However, as the day progressed, rising tensions between the US and Iran resulted in oil marketing companies purchasing the greenback to stock up on crude oil, dealers said. Crude oil prices rose Wednesday after US President Donald Trump Tuesday said he was considering deploying a second aircraft carrier to West Asia, even as Washington and Tehran prepare to resume negotiations aimed at avoiding a conflict, dealers said.

 

Some banks bought dollars for defence-related payments, which also weighed on the rupee, dealers said. Some foreign banks continued their dollar sales for foreign inflows into Indian equities, which limited the Indian unit's fall, dealers said. Foreign investors have net bought $409.02 million worth of shares on Indian bourses so far in February.

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7000	90.5600	90.4600	90.7525	90.5775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	228.66	229.66	230.97	227.66	226.38

 

FORWARDS

Dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady Wednesday as a sharp fall in US Treasury yields was offset by comfortable surplus rupee liquidity in the banking system which kept the rise in premiums under check, dealers said. 

 

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields dropped 6 basis points Tuesday, reaching a one-month low of 4.14?ter reports indicated a 0.1?cline in core US retail sales for December and downward adjustments to the figures for November and October. This supported the premiums.

 

However, surplus liquidity weighed on premiums, dealers said. According to the latest data, the net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the Reserve Bank of India--a proxy for the liquidity surplus--rose to INR 3.37 trillion Tuesday from INR 3.11 trillion Monday. Dealers said liquidity rose on account of redemption of state development bonds. State bonds worth INR 185.25 billion were redeemed Tuesday.

 

The one-year exact-period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.50% at 1530 IST, marginally lower than the previous close of 2.50%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 228.66 paise, against 226.38 paise Tuesday.

 

OUTLOOK

Thursday, the rupee may track movements in the dollar index after the release of non-farm payrolls data from the US, dealers said. Any sharp movements in crude oil prices will also affect the rupee, they said.

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars if the rupee appreciates. They will also be watchful of the RBI's intervention through dollar purchases if the rupee rises to near 90.00 per dollar, dealers said. Market participants are monitoring how foreign portfolio investor inflows into India are shaping up after the trade deal with the US, while also parsing the deal's fine print. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.20-91.00 against the dollar Thursday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.00.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - World FX: Yen surges for 3rd day in a row, rises 1% vs dlr

 

	AT 1507 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3696	1.3699	1.3631	1.3641
EUR/USD	1.1914	1.1926	1.1887	1.1894
NZD/USD	0.6064	0.6067	0.6038	0.6041
AUD/USD	0.7115	0.7128	0.7068	0.7074
USD/JPY	153.2590	154.5140	152.8050	154.3780
USD/CAD	1.3513	1.3564	1.3512	1.3550
EUR/JPY	182.6370	183.7300	182.2220	183.6200
CHF/USD	1.3052	1.3074	1.3005	1.3016
EUR/CHF	0.9129	0.9141	0.9110	0.9135

 

MUMBAI – The Japanese yen rose almost 1% to over 153 per dollar on Wednesday, its third straight session of gains. The surge was backed by hope regarding Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's policy plans, which investors say will bolster economic growth and allow the Bank of Japan more freedom to increase interest rates.

 

After her significant election win, Takaichi presented proposals for increased fiscal expenditure, tax reductions, and a temporary halt on the food sales tax, addressing immediate inflation concerns. Markets also gained support from speculation that Japanese officials might step in to curb excessive currency depreciation, while a weaker dollar after disappointing economic data renewed hopes of Federal Reserve rate cuts, further strengthened the yen. 

 

The dollar fell further, bogged down by weaker than expected retail sales data and caution before the crucial US non-farm payrolls report expected later on Wednesday. The unchanged retail sales in December was a surprise after a previously reported 0.6% rise in November, according to the Census Bureau of the Commerce Department on Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Reuters had predicted that retail sales, primarily consisting of goods and not adjusted for inflation, would increase 0.4%.

 

At 1507 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.58, compared with 96.89 Tuesday and 96.87 Monday.

 

Investors will monitor the postponed January US jobs report, set to be released Wednesday after its publication was delayed by the partial government shutdown. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate an increase of 55,000 in payrolls for January, after management services company ADP's report last week indicated private payrolls growth of only 22,000.

 

The Australian dollar was up 0.5% against the greenback. The Reserve Bank of Australia expects inflation to be much higher in 2026 and left the door open for further policy tightening. The current market pricing implies around a 70% chance that the bank will hike rates again at the May meeting.

 

The bets were reaffirmed by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's hawkish comments earlier Wedmesday, saying inflation was too high and policymakers were committed to doing whatever was necessary to bring it down.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Falls as banks buy dollars for oil marketing cos

 

	AT 1430 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.7200	90.5600	90.4600	90.7225	90.5775

 

MUMBAI – The rupee fell against the dollar as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies who feared a further rise in crude oil prices, dealers said. "Oilers (oil marketing companies) are in the market today as everywhere we can see US-Iran news circulating," a dealer at a private bank said.

 

Crude oil prices rose Wednesday after US President Donald Trump Tuesday said he was considering deploying a second aircraft carrier to West Asia, even as Washington and Tehran prepare to resume negotiations aimed at avoiding a conflict, dealers said.

 

However, weakness in the dollar ahead of crucial US labour market data lent support to the Indian currency, dealers said. Economists polled by Dow Jones sees an increase of 55,000 in US payrolls in January, after management services company ADP's report last week indicated private payrolls growth of only 22,000.

 

At 1429 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.58, compared with 96.89 Tuesday and 96.87 Monday.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.30 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Premiums up as US yields fall; surplus liquidity limits rise

 

	AT 1308 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.6725	90.5600	90.4600	90.7025	90.5775
1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise)	230.66	229.66	230.97	227.66	226.38

 

MUMBAI – Dollar-rupee forward premiums rose across most tenures tracking a sharp fall in US Treasury yields, dealers said. However, comfortable surplus rupee liquidity in the banking system kept the rise in premiums under check, they said. 

 

"The rise was expected but it did not play out because there is simply too much rupee liquidity in the system so at any level you can find recievers," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. 

 

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields dropped 6 basis points on Tuesday, reaching a one-month low of 4.14?ter reports indicated a 0.1?cline in core US retail sales for December and downward adjustments to the figures for November and October. 

 

However, surplus liquidty weighed on premiums, dealers said. According to the latest data, the net liquidity absorbed from the banking system by the Reserve Bank of India – a proxy for the liquidity surplus – rose to INR 3.37 trillion Tuesday from INR 3.11 trillion Monday. Dealers said liquidity rose on account of redemption of state development bonds. State bonds worth INR 185.25 billion were redeemed on Tuesday.  

 

The one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was at 2.52% at 1307 IST, slightly lower than the previous close of 2.50%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 230.65 paise, against 226.38 paise Tuesday.  (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 11

 

MUMBAI – At 1144 IST, the rupee was at 90.5550 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.5600 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.5775 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
Private-sector bank	90.80	90.75	90.30	90.25
Foreign bank	91.00	90.80	90.20	90.00
Brokerage firm	91.30	91.00	90.00	89.50
Brokerage firm	91.20	91.00	90.20	90.00

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Steady on caution before US labour data; FX inflows support

 

	AT 0940 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.5100	90.5600	90.4600	90.6025	90.5775

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was steady due to caution ahead of the release of non-farm payrolls data from the US, dealers said. Banks' dollar sales for foreign fund into Indian equities also supported the rupee, they said. 

 

"No major cues before NFP, it will cement the view for Fed," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Inflows are constant in shares and they will continue in this manner unless there are major surpirses on geopolitical front," he said. 

 

The dollar remained weak ahead of the release of the crucial labour market data, which also supported the Indian unit, dealers said. Economists polled by Dow Jones anticipate an increase of 55,000 in payrolls for January, after management services company ADP's report last week indicated private payrolls growth of only 22,000.

 

At 0822 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.65, compared with 96.89 Tuesday and 96.87 Monday.

 

Dealers said banks sold dollars for foreign fund inflows into Indian equities, which also supported the rupee. Foreign investors net bought $409.02 million worth of shares on Indian bourses in February so far.

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.30 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar.  (Kabir Sharma) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 11

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Wednesday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.70	90.20
Private-sector bank	90.80	90.35
Private-sector bank	90.90	90.35
Brokerage firm	90.75	90.40
Brokerage firm	90.75	90.35

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most up as dlr falls on weak US data; Japan mkt shut

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies rose against the dollar as the greenback after weak retail sales data from the US. The unchanged retail sales last month came after a previously reported 0.6% rise in November, according to the Census Bureau of the Commerce Department on Tuesday. This was against market expectations that sales would increase 0.4%.

 

At 0822 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 96.70, compared with 96.89 Tuesday and 96.87 Monday.

 

The Taiwan dollar rose the most and was up 0.3% against the dollar. Taiwan's exports in January jumped almost 70% on year, the strongest in 16 years, boosted by base effects and robust demand for advanced semiconductors used in AI.

 

The South Korean won was up 0.2% against the dollar. According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance's announcement on Tuesday, last year's national tax revenue for the country amounted to 373.9 trillion Korean won. This was 8.5 trillion Korean won less than the government's projected tax revenue of 382.4 trillion Korean won in 2025's budget proposal. 

 

The Indonesian rupiah was up 0.2% against the dollar despite the central bank hinting at futher monetary easing. Bank Indonesia reaffirmed plans to resume its rate-cutting cycle to bolster growth on Tuesday. While stressing decisions remain data-dependent, the renewed signal reinforced expectations of further monetary easing following a cumulative 150 basis points of cuts since September 2024.

 

The Chinese yuan was flat against the dollar, erasing gains after inflation in the region was lower than expected. Data showed consumer prices increased only 0.2% in January compared to a year ago, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase and highlighting softness in domestic demand.

 

Markets in Japan are closed on Wednesday for a public holiday.  (Kabir Sharma)

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Rajeev Pai

 

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