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Informist, Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026

 

By Sunil Raghu

 

AHMEDABAD - Oil and Natural Gas Corp. Ltd. is expected to report a year-on-year decline in its net profit for the December quarter, dragged down by lower crude oil prices and regulated gas pricing, according to analysts. During the quarter, Brent crude oil prices on an average traded at $63.6 per barrel, down $5.4 per barrel on a quarter-on-quarter basis. This was primarily due to increase in output by oil-producing and exporting countries that outpaced weak demand growth, exacerbated by geopolitical stress around the world, and US-led tariff created trade tensions.

 

ONGC is projected to report a net profit of INR 71.46 billion for the December quarter, down over 13% on year and over 27% on quarter, according to an average of estimates from 10 brokerages. The upstream oil company is expected to report a year-on-year decline in its net profit for the fifth consecutive quarter. Estimates for ONGC's bottom line range from a high of over INR 82 billion by JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt. Ltd. to a low of over INR 62 billion by Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.

 

The state-run enterprise is primarily engaged in exploration and production of crude oil, natural gas, and some value-added products. It produces around 70% of India's crude oil and 84% of its natural gas. Crude oil production contributed nearly 45% to the company's turnover in 2024-25 (Apr-Mar) while natural gas production contributed around 48%. ONGC sells a bulk of its domestic production to refiners such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd.

 

The company's top line is expected to decline nearly 7% on year and nearly 5% on quarter to nearly INR 315 billion, according to the average of 10 estimates. Forecasts for revenue from operations range from a high of INR 329 billion by Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. to a low of INR 308 billion by Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

 

Kotak Securities Ltd. sees ONGC's overall crude oil sales volume to rise 3.3% on year to 4.83 million tonnes, and gross crude price realisation at $62 a barrel, down 14% on year.

 

The brokerage sees natural gas sales volume at 3.97 billion cubic meters, up 1.1% on year, and average gas price realisation of $6.8 per mBtu, flat year on year because of lower government-fixed domestic gas prices. The government had fixed price of natural gas produced by ONGC to a ceiling of $6.48 per mBtu on a gross calorific value for December, down from $6.55 per mBtu in November and $6.75 per mBtu in December.

 

ONGC's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation are expected to be nearly INR 165 billion for the December quarter, according to an average of 10 estimates. The projections for EBITDA range from a high of over INR 174 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd. and a low of INR 156 billion by Dolat Capital Market Ltd.

 

"The upstream company's EBITDA could slip 14% year-on-year as crude production fell by 3% on year, and gas production by 5%. The fall in benchmark crude prices by 15% on-year, averaging $63 a barrel, also impacted gas realisations from nominated fields," Nuvama said. The brokerage sees earnings supported by rising share of new well gas, which is priced at 20% premium to government-allotted domestic gas, and without any price cap.

 

ONGC will declare its December quarter results Thursday. Shares of the company Tuesday closed a little over 2% at INR 272.15 on the National Stock Exchange. The shares have risen nearly 6% since the company reported its September quarter earnings on Nov. 11.

 

Of the 10 research reports on the company available with Informist, six brokerages have a 'buy' or equivalent recommendation on the stock, with an average target price of INR 295. This is 8.4% higher than the closing price on Tuesday. Two brokerages have a 'hold' recommendation on the stock, and two have a 'sell' call with an average price target of INR 229.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for ONGC from 10 brokerage firms in descending order by the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerage	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
ICICI Securities Ltd	324.20	81.60	174.40
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	312.30	81.59	168.58
Dolat Capital Market Pvt. Ltd.	314.04	74.47	156.39
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	309.80	72.50	158.70
YES Securities (India) Ltd	314.32	71.12	160.97
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	328.58	70.80	162,42
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	307.50	69.30	166.91
Kotak Securities Ltd	316.42	67.46	170.59
Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.	313.06	63.36	163.31
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd.	308.48	62.42	163.60
Average	314.87	71.46	164.59

 

End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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