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Informist, Monday, Feb. 9, 2026

 

By Anand JC

 

NEW DELHI – Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. is expected to report a double-digit year-on-year growth in its December quarter bottom line and top line for the sixth and 16th consecutive quarters, respectively, according to brokerages. This performance is based on strong growth in sales of sport utility vehicles, light commercial vehicles, and tractors, along with higher realisations from these segments. While rising electric vehicle sales are likely to lift the average selling price of M&M cars for the reporting quarter, they are also expected to cap margin expansion, analysts said.

 

M&M's net profit for the December quarter is expected to grow 36% on year to INR 40.44 billion, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. Net profit estimates for M&M range from a low of INR 36.57 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd. to a high of INR 51.92 billion by Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd.

 

The company's top line for the December quarter is projected to be INR 392.81 billion, which would translate to a year-on-year growth of 27%, according to the average of estimates from 12 brokerages. Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd. has the highest revenue estimate for M&M at INR 405.32 billion, citing strong auto and tractor volumes and better realisations, while Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. pegs revenue at the lower end at INR 382.61 billion.

 

SALES PERFORMANCE

M&M, which operates exclusively in the SUV segment, sold 448,469 units in the December quarter, up 22% on year. In the farm equipment segment, M&M sold 149,567 tractors, up 22% on year. M&M had said it expected the cut in Goods and Services Tax to trigger a multi-quarter benefit, especially for tractors and light commercial vehicles. These two segments, as M&M put it during its earnings call in November, had seen "unprecedented price increases" in the last five years. The GST cut triggered substantial reduction in tractor and light commercial vehicle prices, the company had said and this would have driven volumes in the reporting quarter.

 

"Preference towards SUVs and premiumization has led to increase in Auto volumes which is expected to improve further with new launches and facelifts in both ICE (internal combustion engine vehicles) & EVs (electric vehicles)," Prabhudas Lilladher said in a report. "With increasing EV penetration, the realizations also are expected to increase and the margin contraction from it will reduce with better scale," the brokerage said.

 

Analysts expect the average selling price of M&M cars to have risen in the December quarter, driven by a higher contribution from premium electric models and top-end variants in the company's sales mix. The company is expected to earn INR 952,633 per car sold in the reporting quarter, up 7% on year, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said in a report.

 

OPERATING PERFORMANCE

M&M's earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation for the December quarter are expected to grow 20% on year to INR 57.46 billion, according to the average of 11 estimates. EBITDA estimates for M&M range from a low of INR 45.71 billion by ICICI Securities Ltd. to a high of INR 62.12 billion by Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt. Ltd.

 

M&M had reported an EBITDA margin of 14.6% in the year-ago quarter, but analysts are split on the outlook for its margin for the December quarter. YES Securities expects the Bolero maker's margin to contract 30 basis points on year due to higher raw material and staff costs while Kotak Securities forecasts a 40 bps expansion on operating leverage. Nirmal Bang sees a 52 bps improvement, citing gains in the farm segment, partly offset by a higher mix of electric SUVs.

 

In November, M&M sold its entire 3.45% stake in RBL Bank through a block deal for INR 6.82 billion, which it had bought in July 2023 for INR 4.17 billion. The company may recognise proceeds from this sale as part of its other income for the December quarter. M&M will disclose its financials for the December quarter on Wednesday.

 

On Monday, shares of M&M ended nearly 1% higher at INR 3,609.60 on the National Stock Exchange. The stock is up roughly 2% since the company reported its results for the September quarter on Nov. 4. The stock is down around 6% from its 52-week high of INR 3,839.9, recorded on Jan. 5.

 

All 13 research reports by brokerages on M&M available with Informist, have a "buy" recommendation on the stock with an average target price of INR 4,166. This is around 15% higher than the current market price.

 

M&M is the flagship company of the Mahindra group, with core operations spanning automotive and farm equipment. M&M, which is vying with Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles Ltd. for the position of India's second-largest passenger vehicle maker after Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., leads the sport utility vehicle segment with a market share of about 25%. The company also has a dominant position in other segments -  it has a 43% share in farm equipment, nearly 52% in light commercial vehicles, and about 43% in the electric three-wheeler segment.

 

From 2021-22 (Apr–Mar), M&M has tweaked its business strategy to prioritise its automobile and farm segments. The company has since delivered stronger operating performance and market-share gains in these businesses, and the market has rewarded the shift. Over the past five years, M&M shares have climbed about 300%, far outpacing the roughly 70% gain in the benchmark Nifty 50 index.

 

M&M has managed to strengthen its foothold in the internal combustion engine-powered SUV market through models such as the Scorpio, Bolero, XUV700, and Thar. The company is now banking heavily on its electric powertrain cars, with plans to raise the contribution of these cars to 20-30% of its portfolio by 2027. As of Sept. 30, electric vehicles accounted for 8.7% of M&M's portfolio, up around 90 bps sequentially. The company launched its first electric vehicle under the 'Born Electric' range in late 2024.

 

Following are the Oct-Dec earnings estimates for M&M from 12 brokerages in descending order of the estimate of net profit in INR billion:

 

Brokerages	Net sales	Net profit	EBITDA
Elara Securities (India) Pvt Ltd	392.57	51.92	58.10
Nirmal Bang Equities Pvt Ltd	387.05	42.68	62.12
Kotak Securities Ltd	396.82	42.04	59.66
Nomura Equity Research	392.69	40.37	58.38
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd	405.32	39.99	59.58
JM Financial Institutional Securities Pvt Ltd	393.10	39.84	58.34
HDFC Securities Ltd	388.41	39.30	N.A.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd	402.90	38.99	58.62
Nuvama Wealth Management Ltd	393.05	38.96	59.20
YES Securities (India) Ltd	393.40	37.61	56.51
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd	382.61	37.00	55.86
ICICI Securities Ltd	385.75	36.57	45.71
Average	392.81	40.44	57.46

 

End

 

Edited by Ashish Shirke

 

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