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Informist, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

By Eshitva Prakash

MUMBAI – Benchmark indices are likely to remain in range next week but may see a sharp reaction on details of the India-US trade deal. On Thursday, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said that the two countries will sign and finalise a joint statement on the first tranche of a bilateral trade agreement in the next 4–5 days. 

US tariffs on India will be reduced to 18% from 50% following the joint statement, Goyal said. Analysts have said that the deal will likely benefit key players in the seafood, textile, and other labour-intensive sectors. The Reserve Bank of India raised its GDP growth projection for the June and September quarter and a part of this hike was because of growth benefits expected from the US-India deal, Sunny Agrawal, head of research at SBI Capital Markets, said. 

Analysts pointed out that the tariff differential between India and other South East Asian countries that compete with India is not enough to provide a significant edge for domestic companies. The trade agreement will benefit textile exporters, but earnings growth is unlikely to surge due to competition. 

The trade document will also be in focus as the US claimed India has agreed to impose no tariffs on US products. If that happens, there is a risk of Indian companies facing competition from US companies. While US officials have said they will be allowed to sell farm products in India, Goyal clarified that sensitive sectors such as agriculture and dairy are protected, and reiterated that there is no firm commitment to cut Russian oil imports. 

Several analysts have said that if India ceases to purchase Russian oil, it could hurt the margins of companies such as Hindustan Petroleum Corp., which continue to source oil from Russia. Oil and gas companies will also be in focus amid rising prices of crude oil on US-Iran tensions. US and Iranian officials are holding a meeting to de-escalate tensions after the US military build-up in West Asia, according to media reports.

Shares of information technology companies will be in focus after concerns that core software developers' may be affected by artificial intelligence tools. Recent commentaries by Palatir and Anthropic in favour of AI tools as a replacement for third-party software service providers have sent shock waves through equity markets. Palantir mentioned that its AI platform was powering complex SAP migration work, which reduced the implementation timeline from years to weeks, according to Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities. 

On technical charts, fast-moving consumer goods companies are seen reversing their currently bearish trend, Rupak De, technical analyst at LKP Securities, said. De expects the Nifty FMCG index to rise 2500–3000 points in around a month. The Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said that he sees better urban consumption due to cuts in goods and services tax and lower repo rates. The banker expects a stronger recovery in urban consumption and sees the momentum of private consumption to sustain.

The Nifty 50 will find support at 25500 points and face resistance at 25750 points, De said. On Friday, the 50-stock index closed 0.2% higher at 25693.70 points.

According to media reports, Kotak Mahindra Bank and Fairfax are set to submit financial bids separately for a majority stake in IDBI Bank. Life Insurance Corp. of India holds a big chunk of stake in IDBI Bank. Shares of the three companies ended higher Friday. "The earnings of Kotak Mahindra Bank will be benefited by this acquisition, but it will take some time for synergy effects to kick in", Agrawal from SBI Capital Markets said. "Cross-selling to customers and other synergy-related benefits will greatly benefit IDBI Bank," the analyst said. 
 

Investors will focus on Tata Steel after the company's bottom line for the December quarter jumped over eight times on year to INR 26.89 billion, surpassing analysts' estimate handily. However, the company's top line rose to INR 570.02 billion, but failed to meet the Street's estimate. State Bank of India will also be in focus as the state-owned lender will release its December quarter earnings Saturday.  End

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

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