India Rupee Review
Sharply down on banks' dlr buys for RBI, stop-losses hit
This story was originally published at 17:23 IST on 6 February 2026
Register to read our real-time news.Informist, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026
By Kabir Sharma
MUMBAI – The rupee ended sharply lower against the dollar on Friday as state-owned banks bought the greenback on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. Stop-losses were triggered on long dollar bets, which pushed the Indian unit lower, they said.
"It created a little panic in the market when they (RBI) bought in the morning, even though it was not aggressive," a dealer at a private sector bank said.
After hitting a low of 90.8550 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 90.6550 on Friday, against 90.3550 on Thursday. The rupee moved in a broad range of 59 paise during the day.
The rupee started the day higher against the dollar as banks sold the greenback on behalf of exporters who feared further appreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. Soon after opening, the rupee appreciated to the day's high of 90.1700 a dollar.
Some importers bought dollars around the day's high given the attractive levels, dealers said. During the third hour of trade, a state-owned bank bought dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, which led to sudden depreciation in the Indian unit.
Stop-losses were triggered on long dollar bets around 90.45 per dollar, which led to a sudden fall and pushed the rupee to the day's low, dealers said. Banks started selling dollars around the day's low for exporters and for foreign fund inflows, which erased some losses for the rupee, they said.
An ease in the dollar index after increased bets of a rate cut at the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve supported the rupee, dealers said. The dollar index edged lower Friday as weaker-than-expected labour market data from the US led to prospects of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the US jumped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Jan. 31, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number was sharply higher than market expectations of 212,000 claims for the week.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates next month by 25 basis points to 3.25-3.50% rose to 22.7% from the 9.4% seen on Monday. At 1656 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.87, compared with 97.95 Thursday and 97.64 Wednesday.
The Indian unit was unfazed by the outcome of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee meeting earlier in the day. The rate-setting panel left the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in a unanimous decision. It also retained the 'neutral' policy stance even as external member Ram Singh was of the view that the stance be changed to 'accommodative' from 'neutral'.
Market participants now await further details of the India-US trade deal. The White House will enforce the 18% tariff on goods imported from India through an executive order after a joint statement by India and the US on the recently concluded trade deal, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said Thursday. The joint statement is expected in four-five days, Goyal added.
| AT 1657 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.6550 | 90.2800 | 90.1700 | 90.8550 | 90.3550 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 232.90 | 229.72 | 234.60 | 227.48 | 226.16 |
FORWARDS
The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged on Friday, tracking a sharp fall in US Treasury yields after data from the US showed weakness in the labour market, dealers said. The data led to expectations of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve, leading to a fall in yields, dealers said.
Sudden depreciation of the rupee in the spot market also led to an increase in hedging activity, supporting premiums, dealers said. The rupee depreciated in the spot market after stop-losses were triggered on short dollar bets around 90.45 a dollar.
At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.57%, sharply higher than the previous close of 2.50%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 232.89 paise, against 226.15 paise Thursday.
OUTLOOK
Markets will remain shut Saturday. On Monday, the rupee may track movements in the dollar index and developments in the India-US trade deal over the weekend, dealers said. Dealers expect importers to buy dollars, if there is an appreciation in the rupee. They will also be watchful of the RBI's intervention through dollar purchases if the Indian unit rises above 90.00 per dollar, they said.
Market participants are closely monitoring how FPI inflows into India are shaping up after the trade deal with the US, while also awaiting the fine print of the deal.
The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.20-90.70 against the dollar Monday. Immediate technical support for the domestic currency is pegged at 91.00.
India Rupee - World FX: Dlr dn as weak US labour data raises hopes of easing
| AT 1448 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS | |
| GBP/USD | 1.3569 | 1.3579 | 1.3509 | 1.3528 |
| EUR/USD | 1.1792 | 1.1803 | 1.1766 | 1.1777 |
| NZD/USD | 0.5980 | 0.5983 | 0.5929 | 0.5949 |
| AUD/USD | 0.6962 | 0.6966 | 0.6898 | 0.6924 |
| USD/JPY | 157.0370 | 157.0720 | 156.5200 | 157.0370 |
| USD/CAD | 1.3683 | 1.3724 | 1.3679 | 1.3710 |
| EUR/JPY | 185.1890 | 185.2540 | 184.3700 | 184.9500 |
| CHF/USD | 1.2848 | 1.2885 | 1.2840 | 1.2847 |
| EUR/CHF | 0.9178 | 0.9184 | 0.9155 | 0.9163 |
MUMBAI – The dollar index edged lower Friday as weaker-than-expected labour market data from the US led to prospects of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the US jumped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Jan. 31, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number was sharply higher than market expectations of 212,000 claims for the week.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the possibility of the Fed reducing interest rates next month by 25 basis points to 3.25-3.50% rose to 22.7% from the 9.4% seen on Monday. At 1423 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.86, compared with 97.95 Thursday and 97.64 Wednesday.
The pound sterling recovered from the sharp losses on Thursday and was up 0.3% against the dollar. On Thursday, the Bank of England reiterated that the policy will remain on a "gradual downward path", while expressing confidence that inflationary pressures will return to the 2% target "ahead of the schedule expected in November". Governor Andrew Bailey refrained from setting a timeframe for the next interest-rate cut and declined to confirm 3.25% as a terminal rate.
The yen rose 0.2% against the dollar on prospects of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Japan's household spending dropped in December, according to data released earlier in the day. This highlighted the negative impact of rising prices on consumer spending and supported predictions of an early rate hike by the Bank of Japan. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Premium surges on fall in US Treasury yields after labour data
| AT 1358 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.7700 | 90.2800 | 90.1700 | 90.8550 | 90.3550 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 234.10 | 229.72 | 234.31 | 227.48 | 226.16 |
MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium surged on Friday, tracking a sharp fall in US Treasury yields after data from the US showed weakness in the labour market, dealers said. The data led to expectations of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, leading to a fall in yields, dealers said.
"UST fall was very sharp overnight, so premium has to adjust accordingly," a dealer at a brokerage firm said. The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 4.21% on Thursday.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the US jumped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Jan. 31, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The was sharply higher than market expectations of 212,000 claims for the week.
Sudden depreciation of the rupee in the spot market also led to an increase in hedging activity, supporting premiums, dealers said. The rupee depreciated in the spot market after stop-losses were triggered on short dollar bets around 90.45 a dollar.
At 1358 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.58%, sharply higher than the previous close of 2.50%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 234.10 paise, against 226.15 paise Thursday. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Slumps on PSU bks' dlr buys likely for RBI; stop losses hit
| AT 1329 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.7225 | 90.2800 | 90.1700 | 90.8550 | 90.3550 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 232.69 | 229.72 | 234.10 | 227.48 | 226.16 |
MUMBAI – The rupee slumped against the dollar as some state-owned banks bought dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India, dealers said. The rupee fell further as stop losses were triggered on short dollar bets around 90.45 a dollar, they said.
"They bought since morning, and then stop losses were triggered due to panic," a dealer at a private bank said.
Dealers said there was a sense of panic in the market as banks started buying dollars on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India which led to stop losses being triggered and pushed rupee to the day's low of 90.8550 a dollar.
However, some banks sold dollars on behalf of exporters around 90.80 a dollar, which supported the rupee, dealers said. Market participants now await futher details of the US trade deal.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.30 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 6
MUMBAI – At 1145 IST, the rupee was at 90.4025 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.2800 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.3550 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:
| Participants | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 |
| Private-sector bank | - | 90.70 | 89.80 | - |
| Foreign bank | 91.00 | 90.65 | 89.90 | - |
| Brokerage firm | 91.20 | 90.80 | 90.00 | 89.80 |
| Brokerage firm | 92.00 | 91.00 | 90.00 | 89.50 |
(Pratiksha)
India Rupee:Remains up on exporters' dlr sales; no cues from MPC meet outcome
| AT 1115 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.2625 | 90.2800 | 90.1700 | 90.3000 | 90.3550 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 231.52 | 229.72 | 231.52 | 227.48 | 226.16 |
MUMBAI – The rupee remained higher against the dollar on Friday due to banks' dollar sales for exporters, dealers said. Some foreign banks sold dollars for foreign portfolio investments into Indian equities, which also supported the local currency, dealers said.
"Selling coming from exporters and FPIs. The policy did not leave anything to read between the lines," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
The rupee was unaffected by the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Commitee meeting earlier on Friday. The rate-setting panel left the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in a unanimous decision, the central bank's governor, Sanjay Malhotra, said. The committee also retained the 'neutral' policy stance even as external member Ram Singh was of the view that the stance be changed to accommodative from neutral.
Dealers said a firm dollar continued to exert pressure on the Indian unit. The dollar remained firm as investors assessed US President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, with markets expecting him to be less aggressive on rate cuts, easing worries about central bank independence.
Market participants now await futher details of the US trade deal.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Rises on dlr sales by bks for exporters; MPC meet outcome eyed
| AT 0933 IST | AT 0900 IST | HIGH | LOW | PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST) | |
| Spot rupee per $1 | 90.2325 | 90.2800 | 90.1700 | 90.2850 | 90.3550 |
| 1-year dlr/rupee fwd (paise) | 229.40 | 229.72 | 229.72 | 229.40 | 226.16 |
MUMBAI – The rupee rose against the dollar in early trade Friday as exporters sold the greenback, expecting further appreciation in the Indian unit, dealers said. "They (exporters) are selling now because once trade deal is out fully, it (dollar-rupee) can appreciate more and we might not see these levels for some time," a dealer at a state-owned bank said.
Market participants now await futher details of the US trade deal. The White House will enforce the 18% tariff on goods imported from India through an executive order after a joint statement by India and the US on the recently concluded trade deal, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said Thursday. The joint statement is expected in four-five days, Goyal added.
Dealers said a firm dollar continued to exert pressure on the Indian unit. The dollar remained firm as investors assessed President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, with markets expecting him to be less aggressive on rate cuts, easing worries about central bank independence.
Market participants keenly await the outcome of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Commitee meeting at 1000 IST. The RBI's rate-setting panel is expected to keep interest rates on hold at the conclusion of its three-day meeting Friday, according to an Informist poll of 17 economists and market participants. The Monetary Policy Committee had lowered the repo rate by 25 basis points in December to 5.25%, bringing the total policy easing in 2025 to 125 bps, the most in a calendar year since 2019.
For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.00 and 90.50 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee - Asia FX: Mixed; Philippines peso at 7-wk high on rate cut bets
MUMBAI – Asian currencies were mixed against the dollar on Friday as the dollar remained steady after data showed higher than expected jobless claims in the US. The dollar also remained firm as investors assessed President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, with markets expecting him to be less aggressive on rate cuts, easing worries about central bank independence.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the US jumped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended Jan. 31, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 212,000 claims for the week.
At 0848 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.86, compared with 97.95 Thursday and 97.64 Wednesday.
The Philippines peso soared to a seven-week high against the dollar as hotter-than-expected inflation in January strengthened expectations of a final rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas this month. The peso was up 0.4% against the dollar.
The South Korean won was down 0.4% against the dollar. In a bid to stop excessive depreciation of the currency, South Korea's Ministry of Economy and Finance has announced the issuance of $3 billion in foreign exchange stabilisation bonds, the largest single issuance since 2009.
The Malaysian ringgit and the Indonesian rupiah were down 0.3% against the dollar, while the Thai baht rose 0.2%. (Kabir Sharma)
India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 6
MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Friday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:
| PARTICIPANT | SUPPORT | RESISTANCE |
| State-owned bank | 90.70 | 90.20 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.58 | 90.18 |
| Private-sector bank | 90.80 | 90.25 |
| Brokerage firm | 91.00 | 90.00 |
(Kabir Sharma)
End
IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT
Edited by Tanima Banerjee
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