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Informist, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

 

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--RBI Malhotra: Deferring growth forecasts because of new GDP series due Feb 
--RBI Malhotra: Deferring growth forecasts because of new GDP series due Feb
--RBI revises Jul-Sept FY27 GDP growth to 7.0% from 6.8?rlier 
--RBI revises Apr-Jun GDP growth estimate to 6.9% from 6.7?rlier 
--RBI Malhotra: Real GDP poised to register significantly higher growth FY26
--RBI Malhotra: Risks to growth forecasts are evenly balanced
--RBI Malhotra: Growth outlook favourable
--RBI Malhotra: Net external demand remained a drag on growth FY26
--RBI Malhotra: Budget steps should be conducive for growth
--RBI Malhotra: Indian econ in a good spot amid global uncertainties
--RBI Malhotra: Underlying data shows strong growth momentum
--RBI Malhotra: Rising trade tensions unravelling world econ order
--RBI Malhotra: Successful completion of trade deals augurs well for growth
--RBI Malhotra: US trade deal augurs well for econ outlook
--RBI Malhotra: Outlook for growth, inflation remains positive
--RBI Malhotra: External headwinds have intensified since last MPC meet
--RBI Malhotra: Econ activity remains resilient
--RBI Malhotra: Committed to meet productive needs of econ
--RBI Malhotra: Econ stays on steady growth trajectory
--RBI Malhotra: Econ activity expected to hold up well FY27
--RBI Malhotra: Construction activity expected to remain firm
--RBI Malhotra: Sustained informal sector momentum to boost manufacturing
--RBI Malhotra: Improving corp sector performance should boost mfg activity
--RBI Malhotra: Services sector to remain resilient; domestic demand up
--RBI Malhotra: Pvt consumption momentum expected to sustain
--RBI Malhotra: Recovery in urban consumption should strengthen
--RBI Malhotra: Govt focus on infra to give impetus to invest activity
--RBI Malhotra: Govt capex should give impetus to pvt invest activity
--RBI Malhotra: See better urban consumption on GST cuts, lower repo rates

 

NEW DELHI – The Reserve Bank of India Friday raised its GDP growth projection for the June quarter of 2026-27 (Apr-Mar) to 6.9% from 6.7%, and that of the September quarter to 7% from 6.8%. The central bank deferred the estimate for FY27 to April, after the base year for GDP is revised in February. 

 

The finance ministry, in its Economic Survey for FY26, projected GDP growth for FY27 in the range of 6.8–7.2%. The Indian economy is projected to grow 7.4% in the current financial year, according to the statistics ministry's first advance estimate. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra described that, at this pace, the real GDP is poised to register "significantly higher" growth in FY26.   

 

"The Indian economy continues to register high growth despite a challenging external environment, clouded by geopolitical uncertainties," Malhotra said in his post-policy statement. Benign inflation provides the leeway to remain growth-supportive while preserving financial stability."

 

The RBI's monetary policy committee, which met Wed-Fri, decided to unanimously leave the policy repo rate unchanged at 5.25%. The panel also retained the 'neutral' stance even as external member Ram Singh was of the view that the stance be changed to 'accommodative'.

 

High-frequency indicators show strong economic growth momentum in the December quarter of FY26 and beyond, Malhotra said. India's GDP had grown at a six-quarter high pace of 8.2% in the September quarter.

 

The RBI's growth outlook remains favourable. However, spillovers emanating from geopolitical tensions, volatility in international financial markets and shifting trade patterns pose risks to the outlook. Net external demand has remained a drag, with imports outpacing exports. "External headwinds have intensified, though the successful completion of trade deals augurs well for the economic outlook," Malhotra said.

 

Services exports should remain resilient, and the recently concluded free trade agreement with the European Union and the prospective India-US trade deal along with several other trade agreements will support exports over the medium-term, Malhotra said. The tariff concession under the India-EU trade deal is likely to take effect by the end of 2026, and will be helpful to Indian exports in the medium-term. On the other hand, the duty reduction to 18% from 50% under the pact with the US will be implemented in a few days.   

 

Some measures announced in the Union Budget for FY27 should also be conducive for growth, the governor said. Some of the growth-conductive measures in the Budget include the setting up of the MSME Growth Fund, India Semiconductor Mission 2.0, regional medical hubs, new freight corridors, the Infrastructure Risk Guarantee Fund, chemical parks, the introduction of scheme for enhancement of construction and infrastructure equipment, scheme for container manufacturing, and integrated programme for labour-intensive textile sector.

 

The economy is strong-footed on the domestic front. "Rural demand remains steady, with improving agricultural activity and rural labour market conditions. Recovery in urban consumption should further strengthen with continued support from Goods and Services Tax rationalisation and monetary easing," Malhotra said. "High capacity utilisation, accelerating bank credit, conducive financial conditions, and the government's continued emphasis on infrastructure should give an impetus to investment activity." The government has set its capital expenditure target for FY27 at INR 12.22 trillion.

 

Going ahead, India's economic activity is expected to hold up well in FY27. "Agricultural activity will be supported by healthy reservoir levels, robust rabi sowing, and improvement in crop vegetation conditions," Malhotra said. "Improving corporate sector performance and sustained momentum in the informal sector should boost manufacturing activity. Construction sector growth is expected to remain firm."

 

"We remain committed to meet the productive requirements of the economy and sustain the growth momentum," the RBI governor said.  End

 

Reported by Krity Ambey

Edited by Deepshikha Bhardwaj

 

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