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Informist, Friday, Feb. 6, 2026

 

MUMBAI - Following are the highlights of Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra's statement on Friday after the sixth bi-monthly meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee for 2025-26 (Apr-Mar):

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS 

* MPC left repo rate unchanged at 5.25%
* MPC voted 6-0 to leave repo rate unchanged at 5.25%
* MSF, Bank rates remain unchanged at 5.50%; SDF rate at 5.00%
* MPC decided to maintain 'neutral' policy stance

* MPC Singh retained view stance should be accommodative from neutral
* Next MPC meeting on Apr 6-8
* Minutes of Feb MPC meeting to be released on Feb 20
 

MACROECONOMY

* Indian econ in a good spot amid global uncertainties
* Underlying data shows strong growth momentum
* Indian econ in good spot with strong growth, low inflation

* Benign inflation provides leeway to be growth supportive
* Rising trade tensions unravelling world econ order
* Central banks globally nearing end of easing cycles

* Successful completion of trade deals augurs well for growth
* US trade deal augurs well for econ outlook
* Outlook for growth, inflation remains positive
* External headwinds have intensified since last MPC meet
* Econ activity remains resilient
* Current policy rate apt on growth, inflation outlook
* MPC will be guided by evolving macro conditions, data outlook
* MPC to be guided by data from new series going ahead

* Committed to meet productive needs of econ

* Econ stays on steady growth trajectory
* Econ activity expected to hold up well FY27
* Construction activity expected to remain firm
* Sustained informal sector momentum to boost manufacturing
* Improving corp sector performance should boost mfg activity
* Services sector to remain resilient; domestic demand up
* Pvt consumption momentum expected to sustain
* Recovery in urban consumption should strengthen
* Govt focus on infra to give impetus to invest activity
* Govt capex should give impetus to pvt invest activity
* See better urban consumption on GST cuts, lower repo rates
* Food supply prospects remain bright near-term
* Robust rabi sowing, healthy reservoir levels to boost agri
 

INFLATION

* Revises Apr-Jun FY27 CPI inflation forecast to 4.0% from 3.9%
* Revises Jul-Sept FY27 CPI inflation to 4.2% from 4.0?rlier

* Revises FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 2.1% from 2.0?rlier
* Revises Jan-Mar CPI inflation forecast to 3.2% from 2.9?rlier
* To give CPI projections for FY27 in Apr policy
* Underlying inflation continues to be low
* Slight increase in inflation outlook on precious metal prices
* Inflation estimate raised due to precious metal inflation

* Core CPI inflation ex-gold stable at 2.6% Nov-Dec
* Excluding gold, core inflation was stable in December
* CPI momentum to be muted
* Core inflation, barring precious metals, is seen range-bound
* Adverse weather events pose upside risk to inflation
* Risks to inflation forecasts are evenly balanced
* Underlying CPI pressures remain muted sans precious metals
* Risks to inflation forecasts are evenly balanced
 

GROWTH

* Revises Apr-Jun GDP growth estimate to 6.9% from 6.7?rlier
* Revises Jul-Sept FY27 GDP growth to 7.0% from 6.8?rlier
* Deferring growth projections for FY27 to Apr policy
* Deferring growth forecasts because of new GDP series due Feb
* Risks to growth forecasts are evenly balanced
* Growth outlook favourable
* Real GDP poised to register significantly higher growth FY26
* Net external demand remained a drag on growth FY26
* Budget steps should be conducive for growth

* Growth momentum likely to sustain for longer period
 

EXTERNAL SECTOR

* Svcs exports should remain resilient
* India-EU FTA, prospective US trade deal to support exports

* India exports boosted by diversification efforts Oct-Dec
* CAD to be moderate, sustainable FY26
* Merchandise exports grew 7.9% in Q3 of FY26
* Trade pacts to boost India exports, investments
* India remains attractive FDI destination
* India remains attractive FDI destination for greenfield project
* FX reserves as of Jan 30 at $723.8 bln
* Confident will meet external financing requirement comfortably

 

FINANCIAL SECTOR

* Daily average LAF surplus INR 700 bln since Dec policy
* Interest rate effect of 2025 rate cuts is 94%
* Commercial banks' lending rates down 105 bps after repo rate cuts
* CP, CD rates rose in Jan after declining till Dec
* G-sec yields mirroring global trends hardened in last 8 mos
* Will remain proactive in liquidity mgmt
* Will ensure sufficient liquidity in banking system
* Liquidity mgmt will be pre-emptive
* Will leave buffer to deal with unexpected liquidity changes
* Fincl stability parameters remain robust
* To give liquidity buffer to limit impact of govt cash balance
* To give liquidity buffer to limit impact of FX intervention
* Fincl stability of NBFCs sound
* Liquidity mgmt will allow for changes in govt balances
* Bank credit recorded uptick in recent months
* Large industries recorded higher credit growth
* Liquidity mgmt will allow for changes due to FX intervention
* To issue 3 draft guidelines on customer protection
* To issue draft guidelines on misselling, recovery of loans
* Propose framework to limit customer hit in small-ticket fraud
* To publish paper on steps to up digital payments safety
* To issue draft revised norms on KCC, bank intermediaries
* To issue draft revised norms on lead bank scheme
* To issue discussion paper on enhancing safety of digital banking
* To launch unified portal for better mgmt of lead bank data
* Propose to allow bks to lend to ReiTS with safeguards
* To up MSME collateral free loan cap to INR 2 mln from INR 1 mln
* Moot tenor, moratorium related relaxation for tier-3, 4 UCBs
* Some NBFCs to be exempted for needing registration with RBI
* To issue final norms on external commercial borrowing shortly
* To remove limit of INR 2.5 tln invest through voluntary route
* To operationalise corp bond measures announced in FY27 Budget
* To issue norms on corporate bond indices derivatives
* To issue framework total return swaps for corp bonds
 

End

 

Compiled by Vinod Bhovad

Filed by Vandana Hingorani

 

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