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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

 

By Pratiksha

 

MUMBAI – The rupee ended off its earlier highs against the dollar Thursday as banks bought dollars on behalf of oil marketing companies and other importers, dealers said. The Indian unit was supported by foreign portfolio inflows and exporters' dollar sales during the day, they said. 

 

"Rupee could not sustain around 90.05 (a dollar) again, buying (of dollars) came there," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. "We'll need sustainable inflows to move the rupee above 90.00."

 

After hitting a high of 90.0700 a dollar during the day, the rupee settled at 90.3550 on Thursday, against 90.4350 on Wednesday.

 

The Indian unit started the day slightly lower against the dollar, as the dollar index rose amid a decline in the yen ahead of Japan's general elections on Sunday. The dollar index also gained ahead of interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both of which are expected to keep rates on hold later in the day. At 1530 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.89, higher than 97.64 Wednesday and 97.38 Tuesday. 

 

Shortly after opening, the rupee erased all of its losses as banks stepped in to sell dollars, likely on behalf of exporters, who expect the rupee to appreciate going ahead on account of the trade deal with the US, which reduced US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%, dealers said. Following the trade deal announcement, the Indian currency surged 1.4% against the dollar Tuesday, posting its biggest single-day gain in over seven years. 

 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said on Thursday that India and the US will sign the trade deal in March. After signing this deal, New Delhi and Washington will continue negotiations for a larger trade deal, under which India may get further duty concessions, Goyal said. The two countries will issue a joint statement within four or five days, after which the US will cut duties on Indian exports to 18% from 50%, he said.

 

"A lot of exporters, I believe, are underhedged. So those may be hedging now," a dealer at a foreign bank said. "But I don't think there is any panic situation so far. I think that will come in once the rupee breaches 90.00."

 

The Indian unit got a further boost as foreign banks stepped in to sell the greenback on behalf of foreign portfolio investors, looking to invest in domestic markets, dealers said. Risk appetite among investors has improved following the announcement of the trade deal with the US. FPIs have infused almost $714 million worth of funds in domestic equities so far this month. This is after FPIs pulled out almost $3.3 billion from domestic equities in January. Some foreign fund inflows were also into an Indian corporate, dealers said. 

 

However, as soon as the Indian unit rose above 90.10, oil and other importers rushed to buy the greenback, to make the most of the relatively lower dollar-rupee levels, resulting in the Indian unit giving up most of its gains, dealers said. 

 

A fall in domestic equity indices also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. On Thursday, the Nifty 50 and Sensex ended 0.5% and 0.6% lower, respectively.

 

 

	AT 1530 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.3550	90.5150	90.0700	90.5150	90.4350
1-year dollar-rupee forward (paise)	226.16	217.59	226.66	217.09	222.41

 

FORWARDS

The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium ended higher as banks bought dollars for forward delivery on behalf of importers amid rupee appreciation, dealers said. Importers also bought forward dollars, noting the recent dip in premium levels, they said. The one-year forward premium has declined by over 10 basis points so far this week.  

 

The result of the Reserve Bank of India's $10 billion three-year buy-sell swap auction on Wednesday was broadly in line with expectations, dealers said. The auction result, released after market hours, showed the RBI set a cut-off premium of 748 paise. An Informist poll of foreign exchange dealers had estimated the RBI may set a cut-off premium of 744 paise at its swap auction. Of the 317 bids worth $25.03 billion received, the RBI accepted 118 bids worth $10 billion at the swap auction.  

 

At 1530 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.50%, higher than the previous close of 2.45%. On an absolute basis, the premium was 226.16 paise, against 222.41 paise Wednesday.

 

OUTLOOK

On Friday, the rupee may open steady as traders await the RBI Monetary Policy Committee's policy decision, due at 1000 IST, dealers said. The rate-setting panel is expected to keep interest rates on hold at the conclusion of its three-day meeting Friday, as per an Informist poll. 

 

"All eyes are now on the RBI policy due tomorrow (Friday), as participants will closely watch liquidity measures and the policy stance," Jateen Trivedi, VP research analyst - commodity and currency at LKP Securities, said in a note. "Any commentary on inflation outlook, growth projections, or liquidity tightening/easing could set the next directional move for the rupee in the near term."

 

Dealers expect importers to buy dollars, noting appreciation in the rupee. They will also be watchful of the RBI's intervention through dollar purchases if the Indian unit rises above 90.00 per dollar, they said. "I don't think RBI will intervene at these levels. They will let the rupee appreciate a bit and only come when there are incremental and sustainable inflows," a dealer at a private-sector bank said. 

 

Market participants are closely monitoring how FPI inflows into India are shaping up after the trade deal with the US, while also awaiting the fine print of the deal. 

 

The rupee is likely to move in a range of 90.00-90.50 against the dollar. Immediate technical resistance for the domestic currency is pegged at 90.00. 

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India Rupee - World FX: Sterling slumps before Bank of England meet outcome

 

	AT 1539 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS
GBP/USD	1.3575	1.3667	1.3557	1.3654
EUR/USD	1.1786	1.1809	1.1780	1.1806
NZD/USD	0.5984	0.6011	0.5977	0.6000
AUD/USD	0.6968	0.7007	0.6959	0.6996
USD/JPY	157.2960	157.3370	156.6820	156.8740
USD/CAD	1.3696	1.3700	1.3661	1.3662
EUR/JPY	185.3810	185.5050	184.7090	185.2000
CHF/USD	1.2853	1.2877	1.2840	1.2861
EUR/CHF	0.9170	0.9185	0.9167	0.9178

 

MUMBAI – The pound sterling was sharply down against the dollar on Thursday ahead of the Bank of England's monetary policy. Market participants expect the central bank to hold rates after it cut rates at the December meeting, according to a poll by FX Street. The pound sterling was down 0.7% against the dollar.  

 

The sterling also fell on concerns about a leadership challenge to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Starmer came under scrutiny after admitting he appointed Lord Peter Mandelson as the UK's ambassador to the US despite knowing he maintained a relationship with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. 

 

The euro was down 0.2% against the dollar ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy. The European Central Bank is also expected to keep interest rates unchanged as inflation cools in the Eurozone. Market participants will watch out for comments from President Christine Lagarde on the recent appreciation in the euro.  

 

The yen was down 0.3% against the dollar, struggling for a fourth day in a row after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi talked about the benefits of a weaker currency earlier this week. 

 

The dollar index remained firm Thursday after rising on Wednesday, boosted by a weaker yen before Japan goes into general elections on Sunday. The greenback has strengthened after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as his pick for US Federal Reserve Chair, who is seen as likely to keep monetary policy relatively tight. 

 

At 1538 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.91, higher than 97.64 Wednesday and 97.38 Tuesday. Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.3% against the dollar, with the Malaysian ringgit being the worst hit. (Kabir Sharma)

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India Rupee: Fwd premium steady as RBI swap auction result in line with view

 

	AT 1340 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS (AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.1850	90.5150	90.0700	90.5150	90.4350
1-year dollar-rupee forward (paise)	220.97	217.59	222.66	217.09	222.41

 

MUMBAI – The one-year dollar-rupee forward premium was largely steady as the result of the Reserve Bank of India's $10 billion buy-sell swap auction on Wednesday was broadly in line with expectations, dealers said. "The swap saw strong demand but it was expected. So, there is no extreme reaction this time in levels," a dealer at a foreign bank said. 

 

The RBI conducted a dollar-rupee buy-sell swap auction of $10 billion for a tenor of three years on Wednesday. The auction result, released post market hours, showed the RBI set a cut-off premium of 748 paise at the auction. An Informist poll of foreign exchange dealers had estimated the RBI may set a cut-off premium of 744 paise at its swap auction. Of the 317 bids worth $25.03 billion received, the RBI accepted 118 bids worth $10 billion at the swap auction.  

 

Meanwhile, some banks sold dollars for forward delivery on behalf of exporters, who expect the rupee to appreciate further after the India-US trade deal announcement, which weighed on premiums, dealers said. Following the trade deal announcement, the Indian currency surged 1.4% against the dollar Tuesday, posting its biggest single-day gain in over seven years. On Thursday, the rupee rose to a high of 90.0700 a dollar, 0.4% higher from the previous close.

 

At 1340 IST, the one-year exact period dollar-rupee forward premium was 2.45%, unchanged from the previous close. On an absolute basis, the premium was 220.97 paise, against 222.41 paise Wednesday. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Rises sharply as banks sell dollars for FX inflows, exporters

 

	AT 1305 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.0700	90.5150	90.0700	90.5150	90.4350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee rose sharply against the dollar as foreign banks sold the greenback for foreign fund inflows and exporters, dealers said. The Indian currency hit a high of 90.0700 a dollar during the day, 0.4% higher from the previous close. 

 

"We are seeing selling (of dollars) for some FII (foreign institutional investor) flows. Some exporters have also started hedging," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Although, I doubt 90.00 will be breached. Buying (of dollars) should come at these levels."

 

Foreign banks sold dollars on behalf of FPIs, looking to invest into domestic markets, dealers said. Risk appetite among investors has improved after India and the US Monday announced a trade deal, which reduced US tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%. FPIs have infused almost $714 million worth of funds in domestic equities so far this month. This is after FPIs pulled out almost $3.3 billion worth of funds from domestic equities in January. Some foreign fund inflows into an Indian corporate were also seen, dealers said. 

 

Some banks also sold dollars on behalf of exporters, who expect further appreciation in the rupee after the US trade deal announcement, dealers said. Following the trade deal announcement, the Indian currency surged 1.4% against the dollar Tuesday, posting its biggest single-day gain in over seven years. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 89.90 and 90.40 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical resistance for the rupee at 90.00 a dollar. (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Technical levels for rupee - Feb 5

 

NEW DELHI – At 1035 IST, the rupee was at 90.4025 per dollar. At 0900 IST, the rupee was at 90.5150 a dollar, against the previous close of 90.4350 a dollar. Following are the key support and resistance levels for the rupee as provided by leading banks and brokerages:

 

Participants	S2	S1	R1	R2
State-owned bank	91.00	90.80	90.00	89.80
Private-sector bank	-	90.85	90.00	-
Brokerage firm	91.20	90.80	90.00	89.80
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.67	90.05	89.80

 

(Pratiksha)

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India Rupee: Steady as US trade deal details awaited; dlr index rise weighs

 

	AT 0925 IST	AT 0900 IST	HIGH	LOW	PREVIOUS(AT 1530 IST)
Spot rupee per $1	90.4300	90.5150	90.4000	90.5150	90.4350

 

MUMBAI – The rupee was largely steady against the dollar Thursday as market participants await futher details of the India-US trade deal, dealers said. On Monday, India and the US announced the much-awaited trade deal, which reduced US tariffs on Indian goods.

 

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal Tuesday confirmed that the tariff on Indian goods exports to the US have been lowered to 18% from 50%. The two countries will soon issue a joint statement on the details of the trade deal, Goyal said Tuesday. "I am expecting rangebound move in rupee. Everybody is looking for the next cue on the trade deal now," a dealer at a state-owned bank said. "Corporates may buy (dollars) but I am not looking at a big upside (in dollar-rupee) for now."

 

However, a rise in the dollar index due to weakness in the yen before Japan goes to general elections on Sunday, somewhat weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. The dollar index also gained ahead of interest rate decisions by the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, both of which are expected to keep rates on hold later in the day.

 

At 0925 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.78, higher than 97.64 Wednesday and 97.38 Tuesday. A fall in Asian currencies also weighed on the Indian unit, dealers said. Other Asian currencies fell 0.1-0.4% against the dollar, with the Malaysian ringgit being the worst hit. 

 

For the rest of the day, the rupee is seen moving between 90.20 and 90.80 against the greenback. Dealers peg immediate technical support for the rupee at 90.60 a dollar.  (Pratiksha)

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India Rupee - Asia FX: Most fall as dollar index rises, local equities down

 

MUMBAI – Most Asian currencies fell against the dollar due to a rise in the dollar index and a decline in domestic equities. The dollar index rose due to a decline in the yen before Japan goes to a general elections on Sunday. 

 

The US unit has strengthened after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as his pick for US Federal Reserve Chair, as he is seen keeping monetary policy relatively tight. At 0850 IST, the dollar index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 97.77, higher than 97.64 Wednesday and 97.38 Tuesday.

 

Asian equities fell, tracking losses on Wall Street owing to a continued sell-off in technology stocks. The South Korean won fell 0.4% against the dollar, as South Korea's Kospi was down almost 3% due to its constituents' linkages to the artificial intelligence sector. Both the Malaysian ringgit and Thai baht were down 0.4% against the US unit. 

 

The Taiwan dollar fell 0.3% against the greenback and the Indonesian rupiah was down 0.2%. The Indonesia Stock Exchange unveiled draft regulations on Wednesday, mandating minimum free float requirements for new share listings, as it looks to move quickly to address worries raised by index MSCI, which triggered an $80 billion market selloff last week. The Chinese yuan was down 0.1%. 

 

Bucking the trend, the Phillipine peso was up 0.2% against the dollar after data released Thursday showed annual inflation jumped to 2.0% in January, the fastest pace in 11 months. The print came in above the 1.8% median forecast in a Reuters poll and was well within the central bank's 2% to 4% target for the year. (Pratiksha) 

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India Rupee: Expected range for rupee - Feb 5

 

MUMBAI – Following are the expected support and resistance levels for the rupee on Thursday, as forecast by leading banks and brokerages in an Informist poll:

 

PARTICIPANT	SUPPORT	RESISTANCE
State-owned bank	90.80	90.30
State-owned bank	90.75	90.25
Private-sector bank	90.62	90.28
Private-sector bank	90.80	90.25
Foreign bank	90.85	90.00
Brokerage firm	91.00	90.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(Pratiksha)

 

 

End

 

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

 

Edited by Saji George Titus

 

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