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Informist, Thursday, Feb. 5, 2026

 

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--Motilal Oswal's Modi:COMEX gold seen at $5,800-$6,000 per ounce in 6-8 mos
--CONTEXT: Motilal Oswal Assistant Vice-President Manav Modi in an interview
--Motilal Oswal's Modi:Gold, silver story positive despite recent volatility
--Motilal Oswal's Modi:Despite crash, gold, silver ended January up about 10%
--Motilal Oswal's Modi:Profit-booking, higher margin behind recent volatility
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Key gold support seen at $4,400-$4,500/oz on COMEX
--Motilal Oswal's Modi:Deeper fall in gold to $4,000/oz unlikely in near term
--Motilal Oswal's Modi:See MCX gold support at INR 125,000-NR 130,000/10 gm
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: MCX gold resistance at INR 165,000-INR 170,000/10 gm
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Gold purchases by global central banks remain strong
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Change in basics may drag silver to breakout point
--Motilal Oswal's Modi:Key silver support seen at $60-$65 per ounce on COMEX
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Key silver resistance at $120-$125/oz on COMEX
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Silver may reach $135-$140/oz if key ceiling broken 
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Aluminium, zinc to perform well in 2026
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Copper to give best returns in base metals this year
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: LME copper year-end target at $15,000 per tonne
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: MCX copper year-end target at INR 1,450-INR 1,500/kg
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Central banks buying silver is a possibility
--Motilal Oswal's Modi: Large disparity in silver futures, spot currently

 

By Ashutosh Pati, Pallavi Singhal, Abhijit Doshi

 

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI – Even though gold and silver witnessed the sharpest sell-off in decades earlier this week after rising to fresh highs, the structural drivers of the rally have not changed. While volatility will be high in the near term, the "story is still positive", Manav Modi, assistant vice-president at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., told Informist in an interview Wednesday. Gold prices on COMEX could touch $6,000 per ounce in six to eight months, he said.

 

Prices of gold fell around 16% on the last trading day of January from the record high of $5,626.8 per ounce, the sharpest drop in over a decade, while silver plummeted around 30% on the same day. The decline continued on the first trading day of February as well, though the drop was milder. "...the pace of fall is very scary but the pace of rise or the rally was also very scary," Modi said.

 

"But still, if you see, despite this fall, gold and silver both have closed the January month in positive mode by 10% (on month) even though one-day fall of silver was 30%. That 30?ll is in front of a 300% rally in all of 2025 and the first month of 2026. So, what I mean to say is definitely the volatility is higher, but the story is still positive. The factors are still positive," he said.

 

The only difference between the period before the crash and that after it is that exchanges are seeking to reduce volatility by raising margins. "Speculators and investors are wanting to book their profits after such a big rally and physical demand has slowed a bit. But then, overall industrial and investor demand is still, I think, strong," Modi said.

 

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures contracts. For non-heightened risk profiles, the gold futures margin has been increased to 8% from the current 6%. For heightened risk profiles, it have been raised to 8.8% from 6.6%. Silver futures margin for non-heightened risk profiles has been increased to 15% from the current 11% and for heightened risk profiles, it has have been raised to 16.5% from 12.1%.

 

GOLD

For gold, the important support zone is around $4,400-$4,500 per ounce; in case of a break below this, further fall towards $4,200-$4,000 is possible. "But looking at the fundamental story, I don't see that happening anytime soon...breaking the recent low," Modi said. On the upside, $5,800-$6,000 per ounce on the COMEX "looks like a possible target from a six-eight-month perspective" he said.

 

On the domestic bourse, he sees the support zone at around INR 125,000-INR 130,000 per 10 grams, and the immediate levels on the higher side are around INR 165,000-INR 170,000 per 10 grams. "If those levels are reached, we could inch further once again towards the previous high and the record highs," he added.

 

Investment demand for gold, which includes purchases by global central banks, remains strong. Modi said no rally is stopping central banks from buying the precious metal. "Even at $3,000 they were buying, even at $4,000 they are buying, even at $5,000 they are buying. So, definitely the pace or the quantum is a bit less, but then the valuation of central banks is continuously rising."

 

The tailwinds for gold haven't changed much since last year. Factors such as escalation in tariffs or wars or trade tensions still persist. Another major factor is US treasuries versus gold reserves, Modi said. "...if all central banks have to move from US treasuries to gold, even if 5% have to move from treasuries to gold, I think the demand is too huge," he said.

 

The headwinds, however, haven't disappeared. With Kevin Warsh nominated by the US president to replace Jerome Powell as the chief of the Federal Reserve soon, interest rates could go up. "Kevin Warsh is a very diplomatic and a very practical kind of a person, just like Jerome Powell is. So, if he is unbiased and if the data is still not reflecting kind of a lower inflation, higher growth scenario, then I don't think the rate cut would be, you know, the scenario," Modi said.

 

Moreover, US GDP has been rising since last three to four quarters. "Average is around two and a half, three percent. So, if growth continues, that could be another signal that even though the labour market is weak, it is a delayed impact of shutdown or delayed impact of the rate cuts. But growth is doing fine, so that also could be a negative factor."

 

In addition, gold exchange-traded funds saw strong outflows in January. If that continues and speculative positioning reduces, it could act as a negative factor for gold. 

 

SILVER

Asked if global central banks could move towards silver now, Modi said there is a possibility, since silver is outperforming most assets. However, the only constraint could be the volatility in the white metal. "...gold is in central banks' and everyone's portfolio because of its stability, because of its supply-demand scenario being stable, because of the safe haven demand. But silver, even though being stable, it is kind of volatile by its nature because of a smaller volume, because of the smaller demand-supply mismatch," he said.

 

With Saudi Arabia's central bank announcing purchases of silver and even Russia announcing a three-year plan to do so, "I would hope the percentage is still there, even though less. Central banks could, you know, look at one more asset that is silver."

 

With global financial services firm BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky saying that silver prices might return to the breakout point, Modi said if there is any change in fundamentals, then this could happen. Barring any change in fundamentals, Modi sees prices rising towards $100-$120 per ounce again.

 

Lately, there has been significant disparity between silver futures and spot prices. This is purely because of volatility in prices and differences in volumes. This started around the Christmas holidays when there was a mismatch in volumes and a mismatch at exchanges, where some were trading and others were not. "...when the domestic (exchange) was working, the COMEX volumes were very thin and the MCX volumes were very high. And because of that, speculators kind of increased in both the market and with the volumes, the price rallies also increased," Modi said.

 

"But then, this is purely a volatility plus volume game, nothing else."

 

Modi sees resistance levels on COMEX at $120-$125 per ounce and, if breached, prices could rise to $135-$140 per ounce. "Like I again mentioned, in an extreme bull case scenario, if the numbers and the fundamentals are in our favour...otherwise, it could average around this broad range of $75 on the lower end and, say, $100 on the higher end," he said. On the downside, prices could fall to $60-$65 per ounce.

 

BASE METALS

Modi believes aluminium and zinc could perform well this year, but his top pick in terms of returns remains copper. His year-end target for copper is around $15,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange and INR 1,450-INR 1,500 on the MCX.

 

Despite China's aluminium production reaching the government mandated cap of 45 million tonnes, the country is importing a lot of the metal and Modi expects this to continue this year unless it changes its capacity limit.  End

 

US$1 = INR 90.22

IST, or Indian Standard Time, is five-and-a-half hours ahead of GMT

 

Edited by Avishek Dutta

 

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